Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of the South African Open

Golf betting tips: South African Open

1pt Louis Albertse to win his three-ball at 14/5 (BoyleSports)

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The broad rule in South Africa is that either a classy local will win or one of the overseas raiders will underline that the DP World Tour is far stronger than the Sunshine Tour, and with 18 holes to go in the South African Open, it appears set to hold up.

Thriston Lawrence has been ahead since Thursday afternoon as he seeks a third victory at this level, and during the course of Saturday's third round, Clement Sordet emerged as his biggest challenger. The Frenchman might not yet have won beyond the Challenge Tour, but he's certainly good enough to do so.

Lawrence holds a two-shot lead in what has looked a match for quite some time, and with his proven form and home support, it may seem like everything is in his favour. Certainly he merits strong favouritism and he'd still have headed the market had he trailed his rival by a shot; given that he leads by two, many will feel he's virtually unbeatable and this is no doubt a golden opportunity.

I did have some reservations about Lawrence at halfway and to an extent still do. Remember, he won the Joburg Open because the final 36 holes were abandoned, and in Switzerland he let a three-shot lead slip before winning a play-off after his opponent bogeyed the 18th hole. He's got stacks of ability and might become a ruthless collector of titles, but he's still got a bit to prove for now.

This is the South African Open, too, and it's such a big deal for the home players. Louis Oosthuizen burst into tears when he finally won it, Charl Schwartzel never has, and Branden Grace was beaten by Chris Paisley when it looked for all the world as though he'd add it to his collection, which he went on to do a couple of years later.

Having been there in the firing line all week and relied heavily on his putter at times, I could see Lawrence struggling – and were there a handful of players within three or four shots I'd say he looks vulnerable. However, both he and Sordet managed to birdie the 18th hole despite poor tee-shots and they've daylight over the rest, which not only gives them more room for manoeuvre but changes the entire dynamic of the final three-ball.

This will feel like a match between Lawrence and Sordet, and that could count for a lot. Being able to focus on yourself and your playing partners and ignore roars and leaderboard moves from across the course, knowing that even a bad day should mean second place and could mean first, has to be an advantage to Lawrence in particular, who will have all of the support as the only South African in the group.

My vote would still go to Sordet at 3/1 as he's a really talented player with plenty of winning Challenge Tour form, more to win but less perhaps to lose. But after much deliberation I'm content to sit this out and accept that Lawrence could play poorly or struggle badly with nerves and still win well. He's always been touted as a potential star and there's of course a fair chance he performs better than in Switzerland.

Three-ball punters are pointed towards Wilco Nienaber and Dean Burmester among the final few groups, but both are short enough on balance and the same applies to betting without the front two. I'd almost rather chance Adrian Otaegui than Burmester as the price discrepancy (16/1 to 8/1) seems wide, but admittedly the Spaniard's lack of punch off the tee is a negative and this is a market to avoid.

I will stick to the three-ball coupon and one small bet on LOUIS ALBERTSE.

Having led through 54 holes when the Sunshine Tour came here last year, and carded a bogey-free 66 in round two, Albertse has shown plenty at Blair Atholl and that makes sense – he's one of the bigger hitters on the circuit, and this is a huge golf course.

Power has clearly been a factor, as evidenced by two absolute freaks in Nienaber and James Hart du Preez both featuring towards the top of the leaderboard, and it's an advantage Albertse holds over playing partners Jorge Campillo and Chase Hanna.

It might not be enough against two superior operators but with five par-fives to go at here, and a collection of long, difficult par-threes, siding with a player who will outdrive the opposition by 20 or 30 yards is appealing enough at prices close to 3/1.

Posted at 1745 GMT on 03/12/22

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