He makes the World Wide Technology Championship a three-horse race heading into the final round and Martin Matthews has a 9/2 fancy.
Golf betting tips: World Wide Technology Championship
3pts win Justin Thomas to win World Wide Technology Championship at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Take on the leader in Mayakoba
If the last couple of weeks on the PGA Tour have lacked some star power then the same cannot be said for this week's World Wide Technologies Championship at Mayakoba as we head into the final day.
The event, which was dominated by Matthew Wolff through the first 36 holes, was turned on its head on Saturday through a combination of his struggles and the brilliance of Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas and the not-to-be forgotten Talor Gooch.
Once the dust had settled on the action, Hovland, courtesy of a superb bogeyfree 62, found himself on 19- under-par and with a two-shot lead heading in to the final day over Gooch with Thomas a further shot back.
Hovland, who has been flawless since a double bogey on his first hole on Friday, sits third for the week in driving accuracy, third in greens in regulation and 11th in putting. Basically, he is doing everything great and there is no strong reason to think he cannot go on to become the first man to successfully defend the trophy in this event.
The Norwegian has held the 54-hole lead on three occasions since turning pro and has converted two of those to victories so there is no real comfort for the chasing pack on that front either.
As I said last Sunday in this column, though, things are never as simple on the final day and it may just be that the 24-year-old struggles to back up yesterday’s fireworks. If he is a little lack-lustre today that will open the door for those behind him on a course which is throwing in plenty of low numbers this week.
Add in the quality of those leading the chase and it is enough to put me off the odds-on quotes.
Why Justin Thomas is the best bet
The man who will get to stare down Hovland today is fellow OSU alumni Gooch. He came into the week with three straight top-11 finishes on tour this season, including two top-fives, and has carried on that form. The one time Korn Ferry Tour winner certainly now has the look of a player ready to break through into the big league.
Gooch, who talked after his round on Saturday about how the course reminds him of one he plays back home, has like Hovland been dialled in with his irons this week. This should be a comfortable pairing for him and, with the way he has been playing of late, I see no reason why he won't hang tough today and potentially take advantage of any slip-ups the leader makes.
Gooch is tempting at quotes of 4/1 to chance to make a breakthrough, however, in all logic, I cannot side with him at those odds when JUSTIN THOMAS is available at a fraction bigger and sits only one further shot back.
He started the week really poorly and was three-over through his first 11 holes on Thursday before finding six birdies in his final seven to finish day one three-under.
Since then the 14-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t looked back and rounds of 65 and 64 over the next two days have put him right where he wants to be going into the final day.
With Jim ‘Bones’ Mackay now on his bag full time and on a course we know he is perfectly suited to courtesy of his past wins on the paspalum in Malaysia and at the correlating Wailae CC, Thomas looks ideally positioned to round off his 2021 with a second tour title of the year.
The 28-year-old has made a habit over the years of striking from behind on a Sunday and, in what in all likelihood will turn in to a three-horse race, I just can’t ignore his chances at the prices.
In an event that has only seen one player come from more than three shots back on a Sunday over the past ten years it is hard to make a case for any of the others, particularly as the man in fourth place and five back, local hero Carlos Ortiz, has been struggling with a shoulder injury this week. It nearly forced him to withdraw after 36 holes.
Who are the lively outsiders?
If someone is to make a run from outside the top three my suspicion is it will be from the third-last pairing which features Sergio Garcia and JJ Spaun.
While the Spaniard, who sits tied fourth in GIR this week, is the obvious choice here Spaun, who sits fourth with him in that category and is bogey free since Thursday, could just produce a low one if he can get his putter going. If I was looking for bet at big odds he would be it. With only two each-way places on offer today, though, it is a huge ask to break into the frame so I will pass.
Looking briefly at the two-balls it has to be said nothing really appeals. I was tempted by the gutsy Andrew Landry who is up against Aaron Wise and is decent odds against, as he is a player who tends to make it count for a big finish when he is in the hunt. However, although Wise has been pretty up and down this week since his opening 63 on Thursday, it may just be that he will call on the memory banks of his final-round charge in this event last year and produce a strong day.
In the end then I will keep it simple and just trust that serial winner Thomas can do what he has done so often before and deliver the goods for us with one of his famous Sunday charges.
Published at 1030 GMT on 07/11/21
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