Martin Mathews looks ahead to the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge and is backing Scott Stallings to take top spot.
Golf betting tips: Charles Schwab Challenge final round
1pt e.w. Scott Stallings in Charles Schwab Challenge at 9/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
2pts win Adam Svensson to beat Russell Knox in two-ball at 5/4 (General)
We’ve reached the 54-hole stage of this year's Charles Schwab Challenge and the man at the top of the leaderboard is a very familiar one to golf viewers this year - Scottie Scheffler.
Scheffler, who missed the cut at last week's PGA Championship, has bounced back in style at Colonial CC and until an unexpected three-putt on the 17th on Saturday he looked all set to be bogey-free through the first three rounds.
In typical Scheffler 2022 prototype style, though, he bounced back on the final hole of the day to can a birdie putt from 30ft and to leave himself on 11-under and with a two-shot lead heading into Sunday.
The Dallas resident has been strong in all areas this week, ranking first from tee to green, fourth off the tee, sixth in approach play and in the top 20 both on and around the greens.
In tough, blustery conditions he has been superb at managing his way around the tricky test, even when he hasn’t been firing on all cylinders, as was the case in his opening nine on Saturday, and with more of the same expected conditions-wise today, a score of par or better may well be good enough to get the job done.
It would be a brave man then to bet against the world number one bagging his fifth trophy of the year, and in doing so becoming the first player to achieve this before June since Tom Watson in 1980.
Before we hand Scheffler the trophy let’s not forget that this event saw an odds-on favourite in the shape of Jordan Spieth defeated on Sunday last year, and with the Masters champion looking a little more ragged on Saturday, it may just be he is vulnerable today.
In an event that has seen eight of the last dozen 54-hole leaders beaten, I am happy to explore the options down the leaderboard.
If Scheffler is to be beaten today, with no one having come from more than three shots back on Sunday to triumph over the past 10 years the likelihood is that the winner will come from either the two players who start two back on 9-under, namely Brendan Todd and SCOTT STALLINGS, or the man a further shot back on 8-under, Harold Varner III.
Courtesy of a best of the day 65, which saw him open up eagle-birdie, Todd is the man who has the pleasure of keeping Scheffler company today.
With two of Todd’s three PGA titles coming at Mayakoba and Bermuda, shorter tests which require a hot putter, it is not surprising to see the Georgia native in contention here, nor to see him leading the field on the greens or in driving accuracy.
If Todd is to triumph today, though, he will need his putter to be 100% on the money again, particularly as his approach play started to falter slightly on the back nine on Saturday, and it may just be he used all his magic up on his front nine thirty on Saturday.
Instead then, to small stakes and with the safety net of three each-way places on offer with most firms, at a couple of points bigger I will take a risk on Stallings.
Let's be honest, backing Stallings is not for the faint-hearted and it is possible he could have shot himself out of this a few holes into Sunday if he doesn’t start well.
Equally, the three-time tour winner is also capable of something extra special on his day, something he certainly showed us when shooting one of the rounds of the season to date, a Sunday 62 in a howling gale in Bermuda, and it may just be that he can find that extra spark to bag a long over due fourth tour title today.
The 37-year-old leads the field in approach play this week and after a poor start to his round on Saturday he bounced back in fine style with three birdies in his final seven holes to bring himself right back in to contention.
Stallings arrived in Fort Worth in fine spirits having secured a spot at next month’s US Open at the qualifying event held nearby in Dallas on Monday, an event which will be held in his home state of Massachusetts, and he has ridden that momentum into this week. I am happy to risk him to upset the odds today.
With Stallings' playing-partner Varner III having proved a hard man to follow on Sunday on US soil and the four on 7-under, John Huh, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk and Patrick Reed, most likely needing a lot of help from Scheffler, I will stick with just the one speculative play in the outright market and instead turn to today's two-balls for my second bet focussing on ADAM SVENSSON, who tees off at 11.30am local time against Russell Knox.
To be honest there has been fairly little to choose between this pair this week as they have both shot par or better in all three rounds with Svensson breaking par each day.
Canadian Svensson has been the tidier of the two, however, making only five bogeys across the week and he ranks fourth for the week in driving accuracy, finding 12 of 14 fairways on Saturday.
Knox, conversely, finished poorly on Saturday with two bogeys in his final five holes and with his approach play going backwards on Saturday he may well struggle today if he doesn’t sharpen things up.
Knox is the favourite here probably on past pedigree alone, but Svensson is at his best on this kind of test and I am happy to support him at odds-against.
Published at 1025 BST on 29/05/22
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