Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Scottish Open

Golf betting tips: Scottish Open final round

1pt e.w. Shane Lowry at 16/1 (Unibet, Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3)

2pts Tom Hoge for Top 5 at 15/2 (Betfred, Bet Victor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

On a very basic level, there’s some appeal to backing Rory McIlroy at 6/4 to win the Scottish Open. He leads by a shot with 18 holes to play, ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and has converted from this position five times out of the last nine on the DP World Tour. Add in PGA Tour events and since the start of 2022 he’s had six third-round leads and emerged victorious in four of them.

But the picture is far from that simple. For starters, McIlroy has never won in Scotland. What’s more he keeps being reminded of the fact. Is this some sort of Augusta hoodoo at play? Is Rory destined to end his career winless in the Home of Golf?

Maybe. Maybe not. But if that sounds rather wishy-washy, there is a far bigger, more practical, threat to McIlroy’s title bid: wind. The forecast for Sunday suggests it could blow as strong as 40mph. There’s a chance play could be suspended.

Even if you’re Rory’s biggest fan, can you honestly say he isn’t hugely vulnerable in such conditions? Especially with a leaderboard that shows plenty of rivals who are known for handling gusts better than most. And with the Open Championship at Hoylake - where McIlroy was the last winner in 2014 - just days away, will he really want to risk tinkering with his swing in order to get it done here?

McIlroy’s presence at the summit and subsequent short price sets up an ideal betting opportunity. As, of course, does the wild weather forecast. As the DP World Tour website states: “Due to high winds forecast on Sunday, tee times will be brought forward to 6.45am to 8.57am off tees one and ten.” Does this mean there’s scope for someone five, six or even seven back to post a score and hang on?

With tee times cramped, I’m not so sure about that idea. For example, Rickie Fowler is six adrift but only tees off 77 minutes before Rory does. Max Homa is four back and heads out just 33 minutes ahead of McIlroy. Overall, I’ll focus on strong wind players who are fairly near the lead.

So no prizes for guessing that SHANE LOWRY stands out at 16/1. The Irishman came home in 32 for the second day running on Saturday to reach 10-under, three off the pace. He’s 11-under for the last two rounds after an opening 73 and must rate a massive danger given how proven a performer he is in the wind.

• CLICK HERE to back Lowry with Sky Bet

I also like his stats even though it’s easy to see the negatives of ranking 71st for SG: Off The Tee and 56th for Approach to this point. For starters, he was 48th and 32nd in those two categories on Saturday so he’s found some rhythm after admitting he’d been a little rusty on day one having spent some holiday time back home in Ireland where golf was secondary.

Secondly, Lowry’s position on the leaderboard is due to the strength of his short game and that’s surely going to be a crucial element in round four with fairways and greens harder to hit. The 2019 Open champion ranks first for the week in Strokes Gained: Putting and fourth Around The Green.

Sunday will be about golf, not golf swing. Lowry can therefore focus on reaching into his memory banks and hitting all those manufactured shots that he’s so adept at when trouser legs flap and flags bend. Snap up the 16/1 with Unibet and Sky Bet (three places).

My other bet comes in the top-five finish market and I’m going to take TOM HOGE at 15/2. The American has compiled back-to-back rounds of 66 and is currently just a shot off the five-way tie for fifth that includes Lowry.

• CLICK HERE to back Lowry with Sky Bet

Hoge has a bunch of good form by the coast, most famously a victory in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2022. He’s also shown himself to be a strong performer in windy conditions in tournaments since then: fourth at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas and third places in this year’s Sentry Tournament of Championship and The Players Championship.

As with Lowry, his short game looks on point this week and I expect he’ll have to lean on that in Sunday’s blustery conditions. Hoge ranks ninth in SG: Putting and 12th Around The Green. He was also sixth for Approach in round three.

Hoge has an awful lot of good players to overtake to make it to top spot - he’s 110/1 if you think he can pull off that minor miracle - but landing in the top five does seem achievable.

While it’s easy to argue that Eric Cole (-10), Byeong Hun An (-10) and Harry Hall (-9) have extra incentive as they’re not in the Open field the other view is that Hoge, who is, will be more freed up than those hoping to punch their ticket to Hoylake.

When Hoge does land top fives they almost always come off the back of strong third rounds: 62, 68, 65, 66, 66 his Saturday scores in the five examples we have over the last 12 months. After a 66 on day three here, he can hopefully parlay that into another big finish on Sunday.

Posted at 1740 BST on 15/07/23

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