Pre-tournament favourite Thomas Pieters has moved menacingly into position in the Open de France, where Ben Coley is backing him to strike.
Golf betting tips: Open de France final round
3pts Thomas Pieters to win the Open de France at 4/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Jonathan Caldwell to shoot the lowest final round at 175/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Rasmus Hojgaard's catastrophic start to round three of the Open de France blew the event wide open, but the young Dane remains the man to catch heading into Sunday's final round at Le Golf National.
Hojgaard managed to take eight at the par-three second hole and was six-over for his round after just three, so in the end it was an impressive recovery to shoot 74 and remain out in front on his own – albeit with a six-shot lead now down to just one.
It means what might've been a straightforward march to a fourth DP World Tour title will now require Hojgaard to do something extraordinary and defy a quintuple-bogey to win. We've seen a player make an eight and win on the PGA Tour recently, but that was a mere quadruple, and it also came on the very first hole with plenty of time to recover.
Beyond that storyline and those details, we've an intriguing Sunday ahead, with proven winners George Coetzee and THOMAS PIETERS joining Hojgaard in the final group, and two Frenchmen among the three who tee off just before them.
Hojgaard is 0-2 with the lead so far, shooting 74 and 72, with all three wins having been smash-and-grabs to varying degrees. That's got to be a bit of a concern although let's not forget we're talking about a 21-year-old with the world at his feet. Records like his tell us little, except that he's not yet done something he will one day surely do.
The bet, however, has to be PIETERS, because his record from positions like this one is exceptional and it stretches right back to 2014, when he lost a play-off for the Open de Espana during his rookie season.
All told, Pieters has entered the final round placed T3 or better on 15 occasions, and he's won five. That includes three of his last four, and on four other occasions he was beaten by a shot. Anyone who witnessed his play-off defeat at the BMW International Open three months ago will know it was only Hao-tong Li's fortune that finally managed to kill him off.
Yes, these five wins all came from either one ahead, a share of the lead or one behind, but he nearly hunted down Rickie Fowler from three adrift, as he did Li, and as Hojgaard helped to demonstrate, a two-shot gap around a course like this one can be bridged in one swing.
It's true that his sole genuine failure, when shooting 74 from one behind to fall to 13th, came here in Paris. However, Pieters had broken his driver during the tournament and it caught up with him in the end. I don't think it's something to dwell upon.
For my money he's one of the most reliable performers on the DP World Tour when under the gun and with just two players in front of him, that makes 4/1 look like a nice price. Coetzee is respected as a multiple winner (just once in Europe) but he has a wild shot in him, and Hojgaard has relied more on the putter (first for the week) than backers would like to have seen.
From further back, Antoine Rozner and Paul Barjon are those French players sniffing around the lead, with Barjon alongside Pieters in a share of third place. He'd be preferred of the two after a nice fightback on Saturday, given that he's a shot closer to the lead and that for all he's not the most reliable, he's looked pretty comfortable when in contention over in the US and Canada.
Jamie Donaldson carries pre-tournament hopes along with Adrian Otaegui from further back, but they remain restricted to landing the place money and it may be that Jordan Smith is the one to make a move. However, my view is that if you beat Pieters you probably win and anyone behind him has a job on their hands.
We know that Pieters is at his most dangerous from the final group and with just one bogey to his name all week, the pre-tournament favourite is the one to be on at the prices. He's entitled to be shorter than Coetzee and closer to Hojgaard in the market.
Finally, BoyleSports and Sky Bet offer a lowest round score market and JONATHAN CALDWELL deserves a bit more respect than he's getting.
I sided with the Northern Irishman in Denmark a few weeks ago having picked up on some small signs of encouragement after a dreadful run, and he opened with a round of 65 to lie 13th after round one.
Although fading through the middle rounds he closed with a 69 to climb a few places, and then shot a second-round 68 at Wentworth. In Italy, on a course which simply isn't his style, again there was something to take from a missed cut as he opened with a round of 70 to lie 28th.
These aren't spectacular numbers but he's definitely improving, and I'd say six of his last seven tournaments have helped demonstrate that in some way. So, on a shorter and exposed course here in Paris, I'm not entirely surprised he's inside the top 20 with a round to play.
Given that he can be a lights-out putter and that his approach work has been very solid, that he's a DP World Tour winner and that he's played so well this week, I can't see why he all but props up this market. The only player at bigger odds is nine shots behind him and everyone else in the top 20, including an amateur, is shorter.
Caldwell's driver can hurt him and he'd be no strong fancy for anything, but a fabulous putter whose win last year came courtesy of a final-round 64 has to hold some appeal to small stakes. Just be sure to get on early if you are inclined, as the market will come down at around 7am, five hours before the leaders get to work.
Posted at 1800 BST on 24/09/22
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