Thriston Lawrence will take a three-shot lead into the final round of the Omega European Masters, but Ben Coley is happy to take him on.
Golf betting tips: Omega European Masters
2pts e.w. Matt Wallace at 11/2 (General 1/3 1/2)
1pt double Rozner and Du Plessis to win their 3-balls at 3.95/1 (Sky Bet)
There's a curious quirk to the top of the leaderboard after three rounds of the Omega European Masters. Alone in first, holding a three-shot lead, is Thriston Lawrence. He's a DP World Tour winner courtesy of the Joburg Open late last year, but it comes with an asterisk: the event was shortened to 36 holes, and never did he have to hit a shot under the pressure most winners face.
In third, four adrift, is Scott Jamieson. He's also a DP World Tour winner, and that also comes with an asterisk. Jamieson won an event shortened not only in holes but in yardage, having captured the Nelson Mandela Championship with rounds of 66 and 57 almost a decade ago. Suffice to say that 57 is not officially recognised in the record books, though Jamieson of course is having got his hands on the trophy.
Perhaps this helps to underline what an opportunity MATT WALLACE now finds himself with, poised in second after a smoking putter helped salvage both his round and his title ambitions late on Saturday.
There's been a lot of talk about how badly Wallace has been struggling and while that's true in a broader sense, his 10th place in the Rocket Mortgage Classic is the strongest piece of recent form on offer here. Also third behind Jordan Spieth, sixth behind Rory McIlroy and fourth behind Hideki Matsuyama last year, high-class form colours an admittedly patchy book of results.
Nevertheless, he is somewhat on the precipice as we head into autumn. Wallace lost his PGA Tour card (he will have conditional status and get into a handful of smaller events) and is on the verge of losing his DP World Tour card, too; the latest victim of success and the options it provides. It's no wonder he was emotional when discussing Saturday's fightback and how it was inspired by his friend Max Homa.
Given his class, which took him to four DP World Tour wins in no time, no doubt the Englishman will take care of business whether this week or during those to come, and he's the bet against Lawrence. I'm usually wary of siding with players who rely on the putter to the extent to which he did in round three, but he's in the perfect position to pounce at a course where stalking tactics often pay off.
All told, 22 players have held a clear lead here since 1996, and 10 have won. That's a decent enough strike-rate and could be better still, with seven of the 22 having gone on to lose play-offs, including Rory McIlroy way back in 2008. Still, it's not a fun course upon which to defend a lead, because there's trouble lurking at the beginning and end, and in-between are at least five potential eagle holes. It takes a cool head and I dare say some experience to know how to go about front-running.
Lawrence has had a fantastic rookie year, building on his stroke of fortune in an admirably opportunistic way. He's the best player in the top four on what we've seen during 2022 and three shots is a handy cushion. But he did begin to wobble a tad towards the end of round three, and would be forgiven for rolling his eyes as Wallace holed a series of nice putts to ensure he's in that final three-ball.
Lawrence was a quality amateur and it seems he just needed an injection of self-belief to establish himself outside of South Africa, but he does still lack experience at this level and given that he can look vulnerable over short putts, he's a player to look to take on until he demands otherwise.
Two Englishmen – the hugely talented Richard Mansell also features – make it a nice group for Wallace and Lawrence might feel like he's being attacked from all sides, with Mansell a prodigious ball-striker and Wallace dynamite on and around the greens when at his best. That best may not be too far away and though it's a long time since he won, he can be fancied to relish the role he'll play in the Alps.
I will confess that I had hoped Wallace would fare worse this week for two reasons: he's a class act who was quoted at 40/1, but he's also a player right towards the top of my list for the Made in Himmerland, which begins on Thursday. He might just arrive there with his fifth DP World Tour title in the locker and he looks a bet at 11/2.
Birdie-birdie finish 👏 @mattsjwallace will play in the final group tomorrow.#OEM2022 pic.twitter.com/HiruYsGsCi
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) August 27, 2022
Hopes of a pre-tournament winner aren't yet lost, with Adri Arnaus tied for fifth and featuring in the penultimate three-ball. He's not yet taken advantage of the opportunities provided by the front-nine, playing those holes in two-under, but if that changes he might repeat his come-from-behind success from the spring. He and ANTOINE ROZNER appear the big-priced fliers, the latter having surged to a closing 62 here last year, which would get him to 19-under were he to repeat it.
Rozner looks the pick of the three-balls, with Jorge Campillo unlikely to light the place up and Alejandro Canizares having suffered a reality check in the third round. Canizares is one of those under serious card pressure and as a wayward driver at the best of times, it's not a big surprise he came home in a birdie-free 38 to go from leading to five behind. He'll do well to stop the slide.
Backing Arnaus is also tempting given that Jamieson often struggles from this close to the lead, but Masahiro Kawamura isn't a player I'd be in a rush to oppose, and certainly not as the outsider of three. Instead, HENNIE DU PLESSIS can land the first part of a three-ball double before Rozner hopefully completes it.
Du Plessis has hit the ball beautifully all week and after a frustrating start scoring-wise, he's gone 10-under for the last two rounds, his putter lighting up the greens in round three. He's a better player than Joost Luiten these days and it ought to be a match, as there's a lot on the line for 33-year-old local Benjamin Rusch, who had been struggling on the Challenge Tour before arriving here.
Posted at 1850 BST on 27/08/22; edited at 1950 after bet365 and Betfred amended each-way terms to 1/3 1,2
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