Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Olympic men’s golf

Golf betting tips: Olympic men’s golf

2pts Jon Rahm to win gold at 21/10 (General)

1pt Rory McIlroy to win a medal at 100/30 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

It’s been an incredible year for Xander Schauffele and the betting suggests he’ll add another golden memory by taking Olympic glory at Le Golf National on Sunday. The newly-crowned Open winner – and current Olympic champion of course – fired a third-round 68 on Saturday to move to 14-under and tie for the lead with Jon Rahm. It’s a best 13/8 that the American wins from here.

Rahm ensured a share of top spot with a five-under 66 while Tommy Fleetwood’s 69 leaves him one back and with the enticing prospect of winning both a gold medal and securing a first PGA Tour title. Yep, this would count. It’s 21/10 for Rahm and 11/2 Fleetwood. What’s very clear is that the market suggests the trio of Schauffele, Rahm and Fleetwood will be on the podium. But is it that simple?

While the top three will be hard to dislodge, the chasing pack boasts plenty of elite quality too. Also in the top six are first-round leader Hideki Matsuyama (71), three back, while fellow major winners Rory McIlroy (66) and Scottie Scheffler (67) are a further shot in arrears at 10-under. World number one Scheffler is 16s in a couple of places to surge through and win gold, while it’s 20/1 McIlroy and 25/1 Matsuyama.

Four other players are at double digits under par. Nicolai Hojgaard shot the round of the day – a nine-under 62 – to vault 28 places to tied fourth on 11-under while Tom Kim and Thomas Detry are 10-under after laps of 69. With so many top names around them, some fancy prices are being dangled, with Hojgaard 35/1, Kim 45/1 and Detry 66s.

It’s hard to imagine anyone further back can strike gold but several firms offer 1/5, 1-2-3 or podium finish to reflect that third place means more than it usually does and some may be willing to play Ludvig Aberg at 66/1 even though he’s five behind and has all those major winners in front of him. Jason Day is also at nine-under and three-figure prices are easily available for the Aussie.

Storylines jump out everywhere, few more so than Kim, who would avoid Korean national service if he secures a medal. While four of his compatriots had to win gold at the Asian Games to do so – and were able to – for Kim, bronze will be enough.

Hojgaard's Saturday move shows the potential for someone to throw in an ultra-low number in Sunday’s finale and it's not the first time we've seen it happen here – his brother, Rasmus, had his pocket picked by Guido Migliozzi's 62 in the Open de France, remember. Other fourth-round scores at Le Golf National that secured victory in recent years include Bernd Wiesberger’s 65 in 2015 and the 66s from Fleetwood (2017) and Ryo Hisatsune (2023).

While other narratives appeal, the one that draws me in is the continuation of JON RAHM’s summer surge. The double major winner tends to do things in streaks and he’s on one again now after heading to Paris on the back of a fast-finishing seventh at Royal Troon followed by a first LIV Golf win. After a troubled 2024 since switching to LIV, he’s on the charge again.

• CLICK HERE to back Rahm with Sky Bet

It’s easy to see why Schauffele is the favourite given his recent exploits but Rahm in this form is surely his equal at the very least. And in that sense, Rahm at 21/10 appeals more than Schauffele at 13/8. A reminder of just how good the Spaniard is from this position: on the last five occasions he’s had a piece of the lead with a round to play – starting from May 2022 – Rahm has converted on every occasion.

Even in moderate form, Rahm would have been a big threat to anyone this week. When national pride is at stake, he raises his game. Check out Rahm’s record in his home Open de Espana: it shows three wins in five appearances. Having taken down Tiger Woods in the 2018 Ryder Cup singles the last time he took on Le Golf National on a Sunday, the planets look aligned. Back him at 21/10.

RORY McILROY has spoken this week about the pure enjoyment of this Olympics compared to 2016 in Rio when he was something of a sceptic of golf in the Games. After his 66 on Saturday, he noted: "I think it’s a little more fun than a major. Sort of like a celebration in a way. It has the feel of a big-time event for sure. Maybe the crowd is a little more enthusiastic."

• CLICK HERE to back McIlroy with Sky Bet

The last time Rory went into the final round of a tournament in contention and relaxed, he won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with fellow Irishman Shane Lowry. If things start going his way, you just wonder if he can post a number that could be competitive.

McIlroy’s putter warmed up in Saturday’s third round – 19th for SG: Putting after rankings of 47th in round two and 51st in round one – while he’s second this week for Approach and fifth Off The Tee. The underlying numbers are there and while the 20s each-way is an option, I’ll take the 10/3 with Sky Bet that he secures a podium finish, something he just missed out on in Tokyo.

Posted at 2100 BST on 03/08/24

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