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Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Mexico Open
Matt Cooper provides the final-round preview for the Mexico Open and he's taking on both Tony Finau and Jon Rahm.
Golf betting tips: Mexico Open
1pt win Akshay Bhatia at 10/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pt win Jimmy Walker versus Joseph Bramlett & Vincent Norrman 9/4 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Twelve months ago Jon Rahm made his way to the Mexico Open in full-on chuntering mode.
He’d thrashed three 66s and a 61 to finish second in the Tournament of Champions, muttered darkly about “putting contests” at The Amex and even his happy hunting ground of Torrey Pines couldn’t calm his head. From there it all got worse, culminating in him carding 77s during poor weeks at TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National.
Then he rocked up to Vidanta Villarta, grabbed a share of the first round lead and never left top spot all week. It didn’t actually kickstart much. As results went it was something of a red herring but once the 2021/22 season was finished a freshened Rahm has emerged.
The bear with a sore head had gone, replaced by a rollicking bull. A golfer who can, as yesterday in the third round of this year's Mexico Open, card a scintillating 10-under 61 to get himself into contention. He now sits on 17-under 196 for the tournament, sharing second with AKSHAY BHATIA (who shot 63 on Saturday), two blows behind the leader Tony Finau and one clear of last year’s joint runner-up Brandon Wu.
As Ben Coley put it last evening on Twitter: this year Rahm has played in the last group of the final round six times in 10 starts. Ben added: “One of those he had to withdraw because he was ill, another was days after the Masters, and another he won anyway.”
His 61 was magnificent in all sorts of ways. Six birdies on the front nine, four on the back and ludicrously he didn’t add another birdie at the par-5 18th. It was the course record, tied his personal best on the PGA Tour, was the first time he has recorded a front nine 29 and he’s not only drained over 100-feet of putts in every round, he notched 156-feet on Saturday.
“Everything seemed perfect, right?” he said afterwards, further noting that to hole three putts of over 30-feet is pretty remarkable. Can he defend the title? Of course he can. He’s bang in form, his confidence is sky high, he’s motivated and loving life on the golf course.
What of the counters? Well, can he remain perfect? Can he continue to hole so many putts? Had he two-putted those three monsters he would still have put in a brilliant performance but three shots makes a big difference. The flip of that is that a golfer of Rahm’s quality in this kind of form doesn’t really muck about with the laws of average. It’s the sort of thing that inhibits lesser mortals instead.
I’m equally inclined not to be minded that he’s only won twice when second with 18 holes to play in nine attempts. The last time he was in this situation was at the start of the month in the Masters and it didn’t really bother him that much.
What of Finau? He laboured with an opening round of 71 last year before racing through the field to finish joint second with Wu and Kurt Kitayama. He’s maintained that fondness for the layout this week and is yet to needed 66 strokes for a lap (65-64-65).
He famously struggled to turn chances into wins but often it was not quite as bad as portrayed. For example, his first five experiences of a 54-hole lead did not lead to wins but he never ended the week outside the top five, was three times second and once carded a 64 which was not enough. That latter example was in last year’s Canadian Open and he followed it with two wins from pre-final round wins – a trio of fine performances, then.
Rather bizarrely, Finau, Rahm and Bhatia played a practice round together – and it’s not the only aspect of Bhatia’s preparation that has gone well this week because he’s using AimPoint for the first time and attributes it to improved speed and lines.
He also noted that he loves “warm, tropical places” and his results back that up. But there’s more too. Vidanta Vallarta is a Greg Norman design and of last year’s top finishers Rahm was already a two-time winner on a Greg Norman track (Earth at Jumeirah), runner-up Kurt Kitayama had a win on one (Al Mouj in Oman), fifth place Davis Riley also had a win (TPC San Antonio) and Aaron Wise, who shared sixth, had been runner-up at yet another (El Camaleon). Even Finau had a third at the latter.
And Bhatia? Back in 2021 he won the Korn Ferry Tour’s Great Exuma Classic on Norman’s Emerald Bay design in the Bahamas and he was fourth at the same venue in January of this year.
He’s also very good on paspalum greens, another skillset so many of last year’s top 10 shared. That win in the Bahamas was on it and his experience playing it this year has been exceptional: that fourth place to start, a week later he was seventh on another Bahamas layout, he was second at Grand Reserve in the Puerto Rico Open and carded a second round 63 when T23rd in the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship (fourth at halfway).
In fourth, Brandon Wu is enjoying his return to the resort and he certainly seemed to like a seaside view. A season and a half into his PGA Tour career his top sixes have come here, at the Puerto Rico Open, the Scottish Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Will Gordon is alone in fifth but three shots adrift of Wu.
The books tend to agree that it’s a four horse race with Gordon 150/1 so there is no each way available and, although a fan of Finau and admiring of his play in this position last year, there are reasons enough to be wary of anyone at odds on. Rahm is tempting because he’s very, very good but also not infallible and can that putter stay so red hot? Take them on with Bhatia who loves the setting, the course dynamics, the greens and who is 10/1.
Add Jimmy Walker in his final round three-ball, taking on Joseph Bramlett and Vincent Norrman. Veteran Walker has sparked into life a little recently, with a 65 at the Honda Classic and two of the same score to hold the halfway lead at Harbour Town. He opened here with two 67s before a 70 on Saturday. He’s also got a fine record at Norman’s TPC San Antonio set-up (three top fours including a win). The Swede Norrman is a fine prospect but is yet to break 70 in round four this season and Bramlett is a favourite to take on.
Posted at 0945 BST on 30/04/23
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