Ben Coley looks ahead to the final round in Denmark, where a two-ball double makes more appeal than the outright market.
Golf betting tips: Made in HimmerLand
2pts Migliozzi and Smith to win their two-balls at 5/2 (General) - suspended 0850 BST
Nacho Elvira's double-bogey at the final hole saw favouritism change hands in the Made in HimmerLand, where Robert MacIntyre is the man to beat despite trailing by a shot.
MacIntyre's bogey at the 16th had swung the pendulum firmly in favour of Elvira, who made birdie at the same hole, but that two-shot swing was reversed with one wild swipe of the driver and saw the pair swap positions in the betting, if not yet on the leaderboard.
Elvira won in Wales at around this time two years ago when clinging on grimly and will hope history repeats. Just as was true then, he arrived in Denmark with no recent form to speak of yet has been in the van throughout the week.
MacIntyre has been a far more frequent contender and now seeks to do something he's done before, and win soon after a backroom shake-up. That's what he did in Cyprus and again in Italy, and should he land a hat-trick of DP World Tour titles then a return to Rome will look likely.
It's a big day for the Scot, who has been a bit disappointing from similar positions this year. In fact you could argue that he's so far been best when expectations are lower than they will be when he heads to the tee on Sunday, such as in majors or when fending off some of Europe's finest at Marco Simone.
That's just enough to temper enthusiasm and he can be left alone at 13/8, but I would rather be with than against MacIntyre, who loves HimmerLand, is doing everything well, and can be fancied to seize this golden opportunity.
Richie Ramsay's putting under pressure would be the only real concern and he's respected along with a chasing pack that includes in-form Alex Bjork, yet to hole a great deal this week and entitled to make progress from off the pace.
At 22/1, Bjork rates better value than he did at almost half those odds pre-tournament, and it's in his favour that there are opportunities over the first six holes. With the leaders dealing with pressure, it's likely someone from behind makes three or four early birdies.
More speculative punters should also consider the lowest final round market, offered by Sky Bet and BoyleSports.
Since this tournament began, a couple of class acts have produced the goods from the final groups, but in general the very earliest starters have been at quite a big advantage under what are typically more favourable conditions.
We've had a best-of-the-day 66 from Andrea Pavan, who teed off at 6.40am, and a 62 from Kristoffer Broberg at 8am. Scott Fernandez was best from 7.36, Sam Horsfield a shot shy from 7, and Daan Huizing's 62 last year was veritably late having started at 9.35.
Jeong Weon Ko and Alejandro del Rey are two powerhouses who will be up before most have had breakfast and would be the token choices in what's undeniably a crapshoot, but one where we often see a pretty sizeable draw bias emerge.
Pick of the two-balls is the ultra-reliable JORDAN SMITH who really ought to be shorter than 8/11 to beat Nathan Kimsey, only recently back from injury.
Smith's short-game has been solid this week and with his long-game likely to improve, he can outclass an opponent who hasn't played a final round since February and was struggling in them back then.
There are very few tempting options on the coupon but I am minded to side with GUIDO MIGLIOZZI as an underdog against Matthew Jordan, who I was surprised to see keep his engagement here.
Jordan qualified for the Open on Tuesday, a hugely impressive achievement for a player attached to Royal Liverpool, and when writing my preview a day earlier I'd anticipated his withdrawal under those circumstances.
To his credit, Jordan has come back to a course he likes but there must be a risk he is a little weary now and, from out of the mix and with such a big fortnight to come, he might do well to match the 68s he's produced in rounds two and three.
Migliozzi has final rounds of 63, 67 and 70 to his name in this, that's from just three tries, and can put last Sunday's shocker behind him by again climbing the leaderboard. At odds-against he's certainly good value.
Posted at 1925 BST on 08/07/23
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