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Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Korea Championship
Ben Coley bagged winners at 3/1 and 13/2 in last Sunday's final-round preview. Get his take on the Korea Championship, where Robert MacIntyre is favourite.
Golf betting tips: Korea Championship
1pt Marcus Helligkilde to win the Korea Championship at 14/1 (General)
I sometimes think that people overestimate how many chances golfers get to win tournaments. Good chances, I mean. 'Favourite entering the final round' chances.
Take Thomas Detry as an example, this highly capable DP World and PGA Tour player who is yet to win on either. How many times has he held the lead on his own entering round four, do you think? The answer is zero.
Twice, he's shared the lead. You'd have made him favourite in Mauritius, when he shot 70 (two-under) to finish fourth, but you wouldn't have made him favourite when he shot 67 in the Scottish Open only to lose in a play-off. How many other occasions can you think of when Detry was in front, say with nine or six or three holes to play, only to fail? Off the top of my head, I can't get that number higher than zero.
The point of all these rhetorical questions is to say that winning chances don't come around often. Some players, like Pablo Larrazabal, are good at taking them. Some are plainly less able when it comes to hitting shots under pressure. Others have just been a bit unlucky, either with a bounce, a break, or the fact that they met a better golfer that day.
I'll spin this another way. Daniel Gavins is a two-time DP World Tour winner. Is he better under pressure than Detry? I doubt it. Gavins was fortunate that when he made a nervous seven on the final hole at Al Hamra, it was enough by one because of the actions of others. He'd had his share of luck when pinching his first title from off the pace, because Jordan Smith and several others played really poorly. Gavin Green would be a winner by now had Smith done the same in Portugal, but that day Smith played really well.
How does this relate to the Korea Championship? Not sure. I was just a little surprised that Larrazabal, a proven winner, has actually not got a lot of experience in the scenario we have here. Larrazabal seems likely to either lead by one or sit tied for first when he begins his final round, after he's put the finishing touches to the third one. The Spaniard is currently T1 along with Robert MacIntyre (who has finished), but has two holes to play – one tough, one gettable.
Larrazabal has shared the lead once in his entire career. On all three occasions in which he's been alone in front, he's led by three, a bigger gap than appears possible this time. Larrazabal won two of those, but his other five wins have all come from between two and five shots adrift. He's a really good stalker; he's actually a pretty inexperienced front-runner, as strange as that may seem.
Nevertheless, he's got to be considered at 4/1. Larrazabal's pedigree is excellent however you dig into it and one thing we've learned this week is how well suited he is to this course in these conditions. More so than most, he's really comfortable working with the wind and when it comes to these greens, absurdly sloping at times, his wedge game is a massive advantage.
On Saturday, MacIntyre did a passable impression of Larrazabal with his own work around the greens and it's seen him move into outright favouritism.
I'm a big fan of MacIntyre and he's on-side at 20/1 so I'm not about to dwell too much on the negatives, but victory would be a big deal. Not only would it secure a place in the field for the PGA Championship (which he'll likely get anyway, in fairness), but it would be two wins during the Ryder Cup qualification window including one at the course.
With his attitude bang-on, his driver humming and his putter behaving, he is certainly the man to beat. However, I couldn't have him this far clear of Larrazabal in the betting had they finished their rounds, so with the potential for the latter to edge into a narrow lead, he would have to get the vote.
Whether or not Sanghyun Park joins the lead or even takes it for himself, I doubt the veteran Korean will prove up to winning this and while Scott Jamieson will likely win again before his career is finished, he's a hard one to recommend even at 9/1. Jamieson at least helps tie the course to Yas Links, which is something we can lean into if they come back, but in the here and now I can't rely on someone with his profile who relies so much on their putter.
The big threats then look to be Adrian Meronk, Richard Mansell and MARCUS HELLIGKILDE, all considered pre-tournament but particularly the latter pair, and all currently two off MacIntyre's clubhouse target.
I love the way Mansell has fought back from being four-over midway through the first round and he might enjoy this scenario, having struggled when leading the Dunhill Links and then again more recently in Singapore. This time there's no real expectation as far as his chances go and I really do believe he'll go right to the top in terms of the DP World Tour.
Meronk is already at that level and he responded to a bad mistake at the 11th to pick up three shots thereafter. He has the recent winning experience after a breakthrough 2022 and if he doesn't triumph this week might do so next, but at the prices it's Helligkilde I want to side with.
The Dane is a really promising youngster with power and touch and while it's all been at a lower level, five of his six wins have come from off the pace. He's been the best player in the field from tee-to-green if the strokes-gained stats are close to accurate and as far as that goes, the fact he's sixth in greens and hitting plenty of fairways is at least a hint that they're not far off.
Whereas Mansell can struggle badly on the greens and Meronk's winning form has come from the final group, Helligkilde has a nice game for what's needed over 18 holes here and there's clear scope for his putter to warm up. It's been a major strength of late, one that could see him set the target for Larrazabal and MacIntyre to reach.
The worry pre-tournament was that he's not really got himself in the mix very often for one with his reputation, but while that'd have been a question mark had he been out in front, he remains a couple back and away from the spotlight. It looks a nice position from which to chance him to small stakes, although I wouldn't put anyone off splitting them across him and Mansell for two shots at it.
Posted at 1455 BST on 29/04/23
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