Ben Coley previews the final round of the Joburg Open, where Daniel van Tonder's winning form makes him the one to be on at a nice price.
Golf betting tips: Joburg Open final round
2pts Daniel van Tonder to win the Joburg Open at 6/1 (Betfred)
2pts Shaun Norris to win his three-ball at 21/20 (BoyleSports)
DANIEL VAN TONDER will have been frustrated not to hole a short birdie putt to end his third round at the Joburg Open, but he was soon brought closer to the lead and now looks in an ideal position from which to strike again on Sunday.
Last year, van Tonder won from three behind in Kenya and then four behind to land the South African Open. Having become a regular winner since 2019 he's the member of the final three-ball with fewest questions to answer – and he's also the player who will be roared on those watching.
Yes, he's a little one-dimensional in that he hits everything with a big hook and his putting comes and goes, but while those factors contribute to making his bad weeks particularly bad, with conditions to suit he's a very capable player. He has them this week, Houghton appearing to set up really well for his draw and allowing him to be aggressive off the tee, so another trophy could well be coming his way.
Leader and pre-tournament 250/1 chance Dan Bradbury faces an enormous test so soon in his career, having only turned professional in July. An early exit from Qualifying School means he's without any kind of status for 2023 and while he has a bright future regardless, winning this would fast-track him to the DP World Tour.
That's a lot to have on the line and there were signs towards the end of round three that the situation might be catching up with him at last. Certainly, he's one to oppose at 6/4 or so heading into the final round and if he does go ahead and win, we can all applaud what would be a phenomenal achievement.
Bradbury had been second until Sami Valimaki hacked his way up the 18th to card a double-bogey, and the Finn is a little difficult to trust. Undoubtedly a player of huge ability and a winner himself at this level, the trouble is he's endured a generally poor year and the ball-striking issues which undermined several good putting displays were very much in evidence late on Saturday.
He's still the most likely winner on balance and makes far more appeal than Bradbury, but it's easy to see van Tonder applying early pressure and wouldn't be a surprise if come the closing stages of the tournament, the biggest threats have emerged from further back where Christiaan Bezuidenhout and the promising Casey Jarvis are still in there pitching.
I'm afraid I must admit to being somewhat pleased to see Jarvis stumble a little as he's a player I've written about a few times, and selected at 200/1 for a previous renewal of this event. Only slightly shorter this week, my worry was that he's still only 19 years old and however much is expected of him, winning at such an early age is extremely rare, while he looked to have been relying on his putter of late.
Still, his Sunshine Tour form coming in was strong and he's not done with from five back, though he'll do well to finish ahead of Bezuidenhout, who starts the final round alongside him. Bezuidenhout let a really good round get away from him for the second time this week but, like van Tonder, can at least draw encouragement from Valimaki's clumsy finish.
At the prices, van Tonder has to be the bet but a saver on Bezuidenhout might appeal to some, and I wouldn't put anyone off some speculative dual-forecast wagers which exclude the first two on the leaderboard. For a time they'd opened up a big gap on the field, but two of the most prolific winners within it are now close enough to ensure this title remains with the home contingent.
For a three-ball bet, doubling down on van Tonder holds some appeal but I'll take SHAUN NORRIS to bounce back from a closing double-bogey of his own and get the better of Tom Murray and Heinrich Bruiners.
Norris has improved his score each day and would've matched the low third-round with a par at the 18th. He's got an undoubted touch of class at this level, as evidenced by the fact he's won a DP World Tour event and played in majors this year, and a return home has sparked him back into life.
Typically a strong driver who can struggle around the green a little, receptive conditions in Johannesburg suit him just as they did when he won the Steyn City Championship, and there's nothing to fear from his three-ball partners. Bruiners is a rank-and-file Sunshine Tour player while Murray only scraped into this field and needs a top-10 finish to get into next week's SA Open.
By contrast, Norris can approach the final round with total freedom and anything evens or bigger looks well worth taking.
Posted at 1645 GMT on 26/11/22
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