Lucas Herbert can stamp his class on the ISPS Handa Championship according to Ben Coley, who previews the final round in Japan.
Golf betting tips: ISPS Handa Championship
3pts Lucas Herbert to win the ISPS Handa Championship at 3/1 (Unibet, BetUK)
1pt Herbert-Cockerill dual forecast (1st/2nd any order) at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Aaron Cockerill and David Law made the most of nice tee-times and the freedom of mid-leaderboard obscurity to make their moves on a day of changing complexions at the ISPS Handa Championship.
Shooting matching rounds of 64, the pair climbed from three and four shots back respectively to now occupy the first two slots on the leaderboard after the later starters found Ishioka GC a little trickier as the breeze freshened and greens firmed up.
Cockerill, who earned a strong mention in my pre-tournament preview, would be a difficult one to stomach. In decent form, a new dad, ideally suited to a shorter course like this one and an eye-catcher on a much longer one last time, he was very close to making the staking plan at 150/1 generally and 200/1 in a place.
We'll save the crying about that one for tomorrow and twitter, but with as clear a head as I can manage, I don't think he'll be far away at the death. Cockerill has a grittiness about him and shot a final-round 67 when tied for the lead after three rounds of this event last year, settling for third on a day of low scoring. He'd surely be delighted to shoot 67 around this fiddly par 70 and set a demanding target as he seeks a first professional win
Whether he's buoyed by fatherhood or the fabulous season his Canadian colleagues are enjoying on the PGA Tour, both or neither, he's certainly playing well and has a magic wand in his bag in the shape of the putter. It was seen to best effect during the third round and, with the rest of his neat and tidy game providing a stable base, he might be a hard man to pass.
Law has won at both Challenge and DP World Tour level, both from close behind the leader entering the final round, but his form this year has been ordinary and it's clear that LUCAS HERBERT rates a bigger threat on paper.
Herbert entered the weekend as favourite and, as others faltered, he was rewarded for his patience and battling qualities with a late birdie to get back within one of the leader, sitting alongside Law in a share of second.
Jet lag and a wild drive or two were the biggest worries coming into the event, but he's shrugged off the former and has probably benefited from the fact that driver isn't often required around here. There are also strong indications that, having won around parkland courses in Dubai and Ireland, he's one of those erratic players whose focus is narrowed on a tree-lined course such as this one.
We've a strong Jack Nicklaus connection with his Irish Open win having come at Mount Juliet, and that's proved a really nice guide to this with both Law and Grant Forrest also having contended there. Herbert, who followed a 2021 victory with a strong title defence, is perfectly placed to strengthen that link and has to be the selection at this stage.
Twice a winner on the DP World Tour as well as in Bermuda on the PGA Tour, Herbert would enter the world's top 50 with a win and that carrot is one he can lock his jaws onto. He's a real competitor, excellent under the gun, and it's just a few weeks since he topped his Match Play group and then gave Rory McIlroy a real game in the last 16.
Clearly the class act, he's the obvious selection but also the right one at the prices. Cockerill and Law are both solid, but Herbert is a level above and can show it.
If he falters, we do have some outright interest courtesy of Takumi Kanaya, who has quietly gone about his business without getting to the top of the leaderboard as yet. His two late birdies in round three got him back to where he began it, within two shots, and this classy youngster makes up a potentially dangerous home challenge along with Rikuya Hoshino.
The didn't seem unduly upset by two short misses over the final two holes and you can be sure this pair will be roared on by the locals. It's potentially to their benefit to be outside the final group and while I'd have preferred to see them together in three-balls, it's certainly possible that one of them earns a DP World Tour card by winning the first event on this circuit to be held in their native Japan.
Of the two, I'd edge towards Hoshino, who was a shorter price before the event. There's just a slight worry that Kanaya has rather plodded along, fewer birdies than anyone else inside the top eight currently. My main negative going into the event was that tougher conditions might be preferable and as things stand that looks like playing out, though hopes are high that he can break 70 again and hit the frame at the very least.
Ultimately, for him, Hoshino, Cockerill and even Law, victory here would be the most significant moment of their careers. For Herbert, it would be a means to an end, his ticket to a summer of major championships. I doubt he'll be beaten by the occasion and that advantage, combined with the fact that he's simply the best player, makes him look like a favourite worth backing.
Posted at 0900 BST on 22/04/23
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