Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action at Memorial Park.
Golf betting tips: Houston Open
2pts win Scottie Scheffler in Houston Open at 11/2 (General)
1pt e.w. Alejandro Tosti at 16/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2)
After a course-record 62 on Friday vaulted him to the top of the leaderboard, the expectation was that Scottie Scheffler would extend that advantage on Moving Day. It didn’t happen, and then some. From one ahead at halfway, Scheffler’s lacklustre third-round 69 left him five behind after Saturday turned into the Min Woo Lee show.
The Aussie grabbed hold of the tournament with a sparkling 7-under 63, putting him five clear of Scheffler, Ryan Fox and Ryan Gerard in joint third. His nearest pursuer is now Alejandro Tosti of Argentina, the man who shared second place with Scheffler (and three others) here 12 months ago when J.J. Spaun (MC this week) lifted the trophy.
With Scheffler not entered for next week’s Valero Texas Open, it means there’s a likelihood that the World No.1 heads into his Masters defence the week after without a win in 2025. Apart from Phil Mickelson hustling for clicks and attention, who would have thought that?
But let’s start with Lee. The Aussie, advised at 35/1 pre-tournament by Ben Coley, is now 1/2 and shorter to get it done. Of course, this is new territory for Lee as he’s yet to win on the PGA Tour in 55 starts. And Saturday was a long day. He had to return early to complete round two so perhaps it was no wonder his head was a bit scrambled by the end of it.
“I just got told I had one eight-putts in a row or something,” said a befuddled Lee when put in front of the press later.
If you’re on Lee at 35s, there is good news. Or, equally, bad news if you want him beat. Why? So far in his career, the 26-year-old has led by two or more after 54 holes three times and he converted them all: winning by three after leading by three at the 2023 Aussie PGA, winning by two after leading by two at the 2023 Macau Open and winning by two after leading by three at the 2020 Victoria Open. Those are lesser events but they give evidence that he’s a good frontrunner.
In addition, stats guru Justin Ray notes this on X: "Last 10 seasons on PGA Tour, players who lead by 4 shots have won 25 of 31 times (80.6%)."
On those numbers, getting 1/2 about Lee actually seems pretty good. The other way of looking at it is that there are decent odds on the chasing pack and that’s the line I’ll go down, much as I respect that Lee has a golden chance and that a course that looked perfect for him is playing out that way.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER started the week as a 7/2 chance. He’s now easily available at 11/2 having already shot a 62 and with just two players in front of him with 18 holes to play. Admittedly, the leader is five in front of him and ranks 1st for Strokes Gained: Putting so far but Lee has the pressure of it being his to lose now.
Last year, Scheffler came from five back after 54 holes to win the Players Championship. Later in the summer he overcame a four-shot deficit with 18 to play to take Olympic gold in Paris. He was sixth going into the final round on both occasions but fired a 62 at Le Golf National and a 64 at Sawgrass. Wind further back and he won his first Korn Ferry event from six behind after a closing 63.
In short: Scottie is a very dangerous customer when chasing. True, the putter went cold yesterday but he was 2nd for SGP in round two and ranks 6th overall on the greens this week. If anything, he needs to sharpen up his long game and the big question is should we be judging 2025 Scheffler the same as 2024 Scheffler? Maybe not but I’m prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt and take that 11/2.
For a second bet I’m going to go with [another pre-tournament fancy for BC when 225/1] ALEJANDRO TOSTI, mainly because he’s 16/1 and sits solo second. That’s just too big to ignore and has YE Yang v Tiger Woods at the 2009 US PGA vibes in terms of a crazy price for a player in the final group. We all know what happened at Hazeltine (Yang started two back and won by three if you want the detail) and, of course, Min Woo Lee isn’t Tiger Woods.
Tosti ranks 1st for SG: Tee To Green so far and obviously knows he can thrive here after finishing joint second 12 months ago.
“So happy to be again in contention in this tournament. This course fits my game really well and happy to have another opportunity,” he said later.
"I'm not the same guy going into tomorrow. I've learned a lot in the last year. Last year here was my first time being in contention for a big tournament."
As a bonus, it’s worth checking his previous final-round exploits. The 28-year-old from Rosario won his one Korn Ferry event (2023 Pinnacle Bank Championship) by firing a 62 on day four, coming from six behind. And in December just gone he threw down another final-round 62 to capture the Abierto del Litoral back home in Argentina.
Give Tosti a try at 16/1 with a book offering two places (¼ the odds). It could help him - and Lee it has to be said - that Scheffler isn’t playing in the final group (Lee, Tosti, Fox).
Published at 0955 BST on 30/03/25
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