Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the Horizon Irish Open

Golf betting tips: Irish Open final round

1pt Kazuki Higa to win his three-ball at 100/30 (BoyleSports, Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Like many great sportspeople, Rory McIlroy has a penchant for the dramatic. He's still got it in him to go and beat up a field and win by seven or eight, which he did in majors once upon a time, but these days the only guarantee is that he'll be near the top of the leaderboard. How things go down from there, who knows.

On the DP World Tour, twice this year the cards have fallen in his favour – and that's from two regular-event starts. First came Dubai and that thrilling tussle with Patrick Reed; then, somehow, he finished birdie-birdie to win the Scottish Open. If you were holidaying on the moon at the time, note that those words do no justice to events.

You could say he gives the rest a chance and that's been true in the Irish Open, where a so-so first 36 holes left him eight adrift. Even on Saturday, he lipped out twice and twice hit actual rocks with his golf ball, yet this time the score was outstanding. Nobody beat McIlroy's six-under 66 and, now just two behind and inside the final group, he is as short in the betting as he's been all week.

Perhaps his luck will run out but as I type that it seems immediately misleading. Brilliance was the primary factor in Scotland and if he finds brilliance on Sunday, he'll probably win the tournament. It would take the round of Hurly Long's life to hold on in that scenario and the German needs to hang around given that he ranks 150th on the Race to Dubai.

It seems fair to suggest that the main dangers might prove to be behind Long and our headline selection Jordan Smith is one of them. Smith went even-money towards the end of round two, when 15-under was on the cards. That score might win this title but he's stalled since, not much going his way and his short-game ultimately a weakness when his long-game does slip out of sync.

Smith has real talent and I wouldn't be giving up given that he's alone in second place but on a glorious Sunday, in front of enormous crowds, this does have the look of a McIlroy hat-trick.

Long was my player to follow in 2023, which is no boast given how poorly he's played but does underline my belief that he has bags of ability and potential. Coincidentally, last year's player to follow was Adrian Meronk, who broke through to win for the first time in the Irish Open. The trouble is, he didn't have McIlroy on his tail, let alone alongside him in the final group.

Long has never held the lead at this stage of any tour-level event, though he was in front for a while at the Belfry to underline the worth of that course as a form guide. We saw there how robotic he can become under pressure and perhaps the worry for McIlroy backers is that his rhythm is affected. Then again, he wouldn't use that as an excuse and I'm not sure it can be considered a major concern.

The best way to bet, for those who can, is to play McIlroy in some dual forecasts. It seems very difficult to imagine him finishing outside the top two and there's every chance the leader falls away, presenting opportunities for some big names further down the board to at least give the home favourite something to think about.

The McIlroy-Min Woo Lee dual forecast pays 22/1 with Sky Bet, while McIlroy-Billy Horschel is a 28/1 chance. The former could finish with a flourish on his first start since the Open, while Horschel talked about ensuring he arrives at Wentworth on the front foot and has hit the ball superbly throughout the week.

Winning isn't out of the question for either but they'll need a bit of help from McIlroy and there are plenty of others in with a squeak, too. They include Ryan Fox, who charged through the field in this event last year and will feel his name ought to be on its roll-of-honour by now, and a determined Shane Lowry from a little further back.

It's looking like a glorious finish and perhaps still the outcome I'd hoped for, selfishly, when Smith hit the front on Friday. The stage though is now set for McIlroy to take control of the tournament and if he does fail, which of course remains possible, it's no easy task to work out who might benefit. I won't waste any longer trying.

Three-balls always make more appeal than two-balls from a betting perspective, though it must be said it'd be a better spectacle in groups of two and a second cut would've surely made sense.

Looking down the coupon my eye was drawn to KAZUKI HIGA at upwards of 3/1 to beat Paul Waring and Adrian Meronk (1046 BST), largely based on the fact that the latter has regressed with each round. With hopes of a successful title defence gone, he'd be easily excused a lacklustre end to the toughest week of his young career.

• CLICK HERE to back Higa with Sky Bet

Higa has shown signs of life lately and is at least Waring's equal on their best form (lifetime head-to-head reads 5-4 in his favour), so having made very few mistakes so far at the sort of classical, tree-lined course at which he should feel comfortable, the Japanese looks the value.

Meronk let's not forget probably missed out on Ryder Cup selection because he's been quiet since the Open, carding some big numbers in Prague and stalling in Switzerland. While he finished with a flourish there, that was with a clear goal in mind and both the state of his game and the potential for the well to run dry make him a favourite to oppose, on a day where the favourite will probably win.

Posted at 1845 BST on 09/09/23

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.