Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the DP World Tour Championship

Golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship

1pt Rory McIlroy & Joaquin Niemann dual forecast at 8/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Rory McIlroy & Tyrrell Hatton dual forecast at 10/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)

1pt double Elvira and Norgaard to win their two-balls at 6/1 (Sky Bet, Betway)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

For much of Saturday, it appeared as though the DP World Tour Championship would develop into a two-horse race, setting the stage for a fascinating rematch between Rory McIlroy and Rasmus Hojgaard.

Back in September, it was Hojgaard whose stunning finish was enough to capitalise on McIlroy's stumbling one and these two, who could well be Ryder Cup teammates in less than a year, had taken over at the top with half a dozen holes remaining in Dubai.

But neither could find another birdie. In Hojgaard's case, no matter – having salvaged par via the side door on 17, he was then inches away from the out-of-bounds line at the 18th before holing a mid-length par putt. No doubt he'll have been delighted to end the day at 12-under.

McIlroy, not so. It's not that he did an awful lot wrong, but a turning putt at 13 looked in until it wasn't, a yard right off the tee on 14 and he'd surely have picked up a shot there, the short 15th saw him drive it too close to the green, and at 16 he was again fractions away from Position A, in the end doing well to make par from somewhere close to Position Z.

Another good swing at the 17th came up half a club shy and then came the most frustrating par of them all after a perfect drive at the last. No doubt having to wait over his second didn't help, but that was probably the one swing McIlroy would like back. Even then, the birdie putt lipped out when it could so easily have dropped.

Having recommended a large each-way bet on McIlroy pre-tournament, you'll forgive me for parsing the details in this way. The message is he's playing well and I've seen nothing to suggest his swing changes are anything but positive, his wedges in particular offering great encouragement. He's putted fine – brilliantly at times, sloppily just once or twice – and is absolutely the man to beat having hit it better than anyone this week.

Hojgaard, 0-5 with the 54-hole lead so far, won't feel the same level of expectation as he did for several of those instances but playing with the biggest name in European golf is a big task however you dress it. His PGA Tour card is secure and he's taken down McIlroy once this year, but that was from outside of the final group and a long way adrift, a position from which he's been absolutely deadly since gaining his card in 2019.

Back then he made his first real statement by beating Antoine Rozner in a play-off and the Frenchman is therefore also seeking a measure of revenge from a tie for the lead. He was the one to capitalise on the slowing of the pace-setters, making a fine eagle at the last where he outdrove McIlroy. In fact if you just showed the two balls and their respective paths to the hole, most would assume that was McIlroy making three.

Rozner and Hojgaard are serious players but I think McIlroy will have their measure, or at least I'm optimistic that he will. Should he drive the ball as well as he did for most of round three (holes 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 15 and 18 were all excellent tee-shots) then he'll be very hard for either man to beat, particularly Hojgaard from alongside him in the final group, while Rozner's hot putting week may not take him all the way to the death.

There's a definite chance that Rozner might begin to miss more putts under the gun and make no mistake, the pressure is firmly on him. McIlroy will win the Race to Dubai and Hojgaard will earn a PGA Tour card, but Rozner can't afford to fall far down the leaderboard if he's to join them on the PGA Tour next year. He started the week on the outside and it'll be fascinating to see how he copes now he's on the inside looking over his shoulder.

Perhaps that will leave the way clear for one of the LIV Golf duo to come through and challenge McIlroy and with that in mind, splitting stakes on MCILROY AND JOAQUIN NIEMANN and MCILROY AND TYRRELL HATTON in the dual-forecast markets makes some appeal, with Sky Bet and bet365 both having priced this up.

Hojgaard's record from the lead really isn't good as yet and while that may change in time, he became ragged late on and always has that in him. By contrast, Niemann looks totally assured from tee-to-green and while Hatton has huffed and puffed all week, he hasn't missed many fairways or greens. It was in fact the putter which cost him a lower round on Saturday, even if it was a wedge he chose to snap in two.

Free of any concerns over cards and money, these two look potential threats and make some appeal as outright cover shots, but I'll split stakes in the dual forecast market instead. McIlroy isn't as convincing as he used to be in this kind of situation, but he's been first of second 22 times from 32 final-round leads and I'll be both surprised and disappointed if he isn't still the man to beat deep into this tournament.

He's looked that way since the very first hole and can sign off another Race to Dubai with the accompanying DP World Tour Championship title.

Elsewhere, Hatton at 5/2 in the without the front three market looks a shade generous if you're betting with Sky Bet. He's odds-on to beat Niemann (7/4) in their two-ball and right behind these two, Tom McKibbin is under serious pressure with his plans for 2025 also entirely dependent on this one round of golf.

Taking Keita Nakajima in the head-to-head against McKibbin is an option with this in mind but the pick of the two-balls are NACHO ELVIRA and NIKLAS NORGAARD.

Elvira is a big underdog against Min Woo Lee and while the reasons for that are obvious, I couldn't make him any bigger than 7/4 versus a player who hasn't been at his best and may have one eye on the events to come in Australia.

These two have shot identical scores throughout and there may not be quite as much between them as first appears.

Norgaard meanwhile is in the form of his life and can take care of Thriston Lawrence, who is bound to be feeling the pinch after a long season which has ended in Race to Dubai disappointment.

There are some perks for topping the 10 new card-holders so the South African has plenty to play for, but odds-against the red-hot Norgaard is well worth taking in some way, whether you're sold by the price on Elvira or prefer to bet singles.

Posted at 1550 GMT on 16/11/24

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.