Joost Luiten looks set to end a long wait for silverware in the final round of the BMW International Open, where we're advising a two-ball double at 2/1.
Golf betting tips: BMW International Open
2pts Schneider and Long to win their two-balls at 21/10 (Sky Bet)
Once upon a time you'd have made Joost Luiten a very strong favourite to convert his 54-hole lead in the BMW International Open, but punters will now have to ask themselves how willing they are to trust a player winless in five years.
Luiten remains the most decorated player in the mix in Germany, where there's a notable lack of winning form within the top 10, but he hasn't held a 54-hole lead since a final round 75 in Oman just before the pandemic struck in 2020.
Tied in front before that disastrous finish, Luiten hasn't in fact held a solo lead since 2014, almost a decade ago. Sunday will be a good test of whether class really is permanent. If he's unmoved in the face of this high-pressure scenario, then Luiten's ability combined with how much he loves this course should see him over the line.
It's not like he's been off the radar, either. In fact he's already finished third on three occasions this season, producing his best form since early in 2019, and he got to see Marcel Siem win again in Delhi. For Siem, the gap was more than eight years; for Luiten, all that contention rust may already have been shed.
Luiten is a cool character who has been speaking about how good he feels on the course for months. We've seen his approach play dazzle in Munich, the department he's always relied upon, and I'd make him more likely than not to get the job done having been the best scorer in each of rounds two and three.
Four-from-seven with the 54-hole lead, if the putter holds up he should make that five-from-eight. Sky Bet's 9/2 about a victory by four or more shots is certainly fair.
Compatriot Daan Huizing has never been in this position on the DP World Tour and his role may be a supportive one, with Edoardo Molinari and Thriston Lawrence much bigger dangers. Huizing rates a poor favourite in the 'without Luiten' markets which are wide open behind him.
Lawrence has the recent winning form having collected three titles at this level since November 2021, and he's improved as the week has progressed. It's been a rough spring for the South African but if we know anything it's that he won't shirk the issue and of all those in the mix, he can see this as a free pop at the leader.
Edoardo Molinari has carded two 66s already and a third is possible if he holes his share, but that's an almighty if and I'd be more inclined to look towards Japan's Rikuya Hoshino, who has seven professional wins to his name and would be right up there but for the way he's played the par-five ninth hole this week.
Ultimately the outright market makes little appeal and the low round of the day equivalent was more interesting.
Martin Kaymer charged home with a best-of-the-day 64 in 2021 and MARCEL SCHNEIDER was joint-best after a 66 last year, something he might repeat to in some way atone for a most disappointing third round.
Schneider had been beaten by just one player during the final round of the European Open a few weeks before that and flew home again at Al Hamra back in February, while the likes of Philipp Mejow, Allen John, Alexander Knappe and Nicolai von Dellinghausen have all threatened or won this market over at Green Eagle.
Just a fortnight ago in the last DP World Tour event a young Swedish amateur shot a closing 64 in the Scandinavian Mixed and Schneider looks a prime candidate to go low now the pressure is off.
He scored really poorly on Saturday, missing a host of short putts and throwing away shots on some of the easier holes, but it'll be no surprise if everything comes together from a much earlier tee-time and with a big crowd following him before the leaders go out.
Schneider's closing double-bogey from the middle of the fairway, almost a carbon copy of the bogey he made at the par-five ninth, might just be the thing that sets him up to go low in round four. Not only is he totally out of contention, but that mistake means much fresher greens to putt on.
It's also tempting to chance some of the younger candidates, Jannik de Bruyn having made stacks of birdies and 20-year-old amateur Jonas Baumgartner clearly possessing a bright future.
They play together in the final round and at odds around the 150/1 mark, you don't have to pay much to find out if they can feed off each other, with the older and more experienced De Bruyn preferred of the two.
De Bruyn in particular has struck the ball well and only a handful of players have made more birdies. During round three he made six of them only to run up a seven from the middle of the 10th fairway, where he appears to have shanked his second shot into a pond.
Otherwise it's been a good week and of his 15 birdies, 14 have been from very close range, further evidence of how little he's got out of his short-game. With the power to drive the 16th as he did in round three, setting up a good eagle chance which also slid by, the 23-year-old might have a mid-60s round in him.
HURLY LONG was also considered as a viable alternative to Schneider but he will need to drive the ball better than he has throughout the week if he's to find the 65 or 66 backers will need.
Long almost won this market in back-to-back weeks early last year and is definitely in the streaky category. As mentioned at the beginning of the week he looks like he's getting his act together at last and another strong finish could set him up nicely for summer.
Although his driving is a worry, Long is strongly fancied to beat out-of-form Mikael Lindberg, who has only played four final-rounds this season so poor has been his rookie campaign. Scores of 71, 78, 74 and 70 set the bar low and Long should clear it, while Schneider can bounce back to beat Adrien Saddier.
Rather than recommend those lowest round wagers, only available with BoyleSports and Sky Bet, I'll stick to the double which you should be able to back across the board. At the time of writing it pays a shade upwards of 2/1 and on home soil, both Schneider and Long have no excuses against inferior playing partners.
Posted at 1755 BST on 24/06/23
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