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Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for the BMW Championship
Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets from this week’s event at altitude in the Colorado mountains.
Golf betting tips: BMW Championship Final Rd
1pt e.w. Xander Schauffele at 9/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Wyndham Clark at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
There was always likely to be something a little unusual about this week when we saw the scorecard measuring over 8,000 yards. Yes, altitude causes those sort of freakish numbers although when the relevant adjustments are made, the striking thought of two nines both measuring over 4,000 yards dies down somewhat.
But there’s no doubt that weird club selections can produce weird swings of momentum on the leaderboard. Saturday was the perfect example. Adam Scott was three clear at the start of play but down by the same margin after a handful of holes. Ludvig Aberg had surged past but the Swede then ran into trouble, dropping shots everywhere. And then it was Keegan Bradley’s turn to be repelled from that 12-under number with a trio of straight back-nine bogeys.
Continuing the snakes and ladders theme, Bradley birdied four of the last five to return to 12-under and lead by one from Scott, who picked up two shots over the last three holes. Aberg is tied third with fellow Swede Alex Noren at 10-under and it’s then three further back to World No.2 Xander Schauffele and local man Wyndham Clark at 7-under.
Perhaps because of all the money at stake - the winner of the FedEx Cup next week gets a mighty $25m jackpot - and the limited field, this event is prone to Sunday drama. In the last six editions, three-shot 54-hole deficits have been made up in half of them, Viktor Hovland the last to do it when trailing by three before taking a two-shot victory last year. Jon Rahm and that man Bradley also came from three behind to win the BMW with a final-round surge.
For extra context, that trio of Hovland, Rahm and Bradley were placed fifth, sixth and sixth on the Saturday leaderboard while it has to be noted that the other three winners in that six-year study period all had a piece of the lead so Bradley is obviously in a good position.
But those round three fluctuations yesterday are pretty compelling and there’s surely scope to jump on the idea of someone a little further back having a great day while the leaders get in a muddle. To add to the belief that the top three in the betting can be opposed, Bradley has converted just one of his six 54-hole leads on the PGA Tour, Scott hasn’t won for over four-and-a-half years at this level while Aberg doesn’t have a win in 2024.
Bradley is 5/2 for the win, with Scott and Aberg both 7/2. If you can pick the right one, they aren’t the worst prices. Ben Coley pointed out on Twitter that Scott used to live high up in the mountains of Crans in Switzerland - host course of the Omega European Masters - while Aberg and Noren have both won that DP World Tour event. That’s a fantastic spot and anyone who used that altitude angle is having a good week, especially with Clark in the top five also. Shame it didn’t work for me with Utah native Tony Finau!
But in the belief that he can virtually do no wrong at the moment, I’m going to play XANDER SCHAUFFELE at 9/1. The phrase ‘finishing like a train’ keeps applying to the Californian. He won the Open Championship with a closing 65, finished runner-up at St. Jude last week after bursting through with a 63 and on Saturday he flew from the pack, playing his final 11 holes in 7-under to get right back in the tournament.
Had Schauffele pottered along with par golf from the seventh hole onwards, he’d be 33rd now; due to his scoring blitz. he’s tied fifth. While Scottie Scheffler’s six wins in 2024 are astonishing, right now the mojo is with Schauffele. And with Scheffler down in 35th and making no impression here, Schauffele can actually leapfrog the World No.1 and go to the top of the FedExCup standings with a week to go.
Reminding ourselves that three of the last six BMW winners were outside the top four with a round to play, I’ll also have a punt on WYNDHAM CLARK at 20/1.
Last year’s US Open winner, like Schauffele, is five behind and may need a little help from the leaders. Then again, he may be able to do it all on his own given that his last four closing rounds on the PGA Tour read 63 (Travelers), 62 (Scottish Open), 65 (Men’s Olympics), 64 (St. Jude Championship).
It would certainly be a fairytale for the Denver native to win in front of his home fans but cute storylines do happen on the PGA Tour: think Robert MacIntyre at the recent Scottish Open and Nick Taylor at last year’s Canadian Open.
An eagle at 17 in round three vaulted Clark into the top five and it’s reassuring that he’s 2nd for SG: Off The Tee and Schauffele is 4th.
Strong driving could be the bedrock for both going on the attack in Sunday’s closing round and hopefully the two playing partners can spur each other to - let’s end with an altitude joke - great heights.
Published at 0922 BST on 25/08/24
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