Recent history points to the chances of Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry at Pebble Beach but Matt Cooper is looking elsewhere.
Golf betting tips: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am final round
1pt e.w. Justin Rose at 12/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
2pts Kevin Yu to win his three-ball at 11/5 (PaddyPower, Betfair)
Watching Chariots of Fire yet again over Christmas I pondered that my favourite scene is not the slow-motion run through the waves on the beach in St Andrews, or Harold Abrahams throwing himself around the Cambridge college quad, or Team USA’s pyrotechnic coaching methods, or Nigel Havers hurdling champagne in his stately home garden, or even Eric Liddell’s ultimate triumph. Instead, it is when the coach Sam Mussabini has to “watch” Abrahams from a bedsit near the stadium. Only when the old coach hears the national anthem does he know who broke the tape in the 100m. It reminds me that many of the most enduring sporting memories involve experiencing, rather than actually watching, the action. The scene also recalls being a punter – a sort of between-the-wars version of refreshing a leaderboard.
There is a point to all of this. When Collin Welland accepted the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay for the Chariots script he cried “The British are coming!” and last night I tweaked this notion in my head to “The Irish are coming!” as Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry posted 65s to barge their way into contention at the A&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
They couldn’t quite overhaul their Ryder Cup team-mate Sepp Straka at the top. He carded two 65s all by himself in the first two rounds and by scraping together a 70 on Saturday he retained the lead on 16-under 200. McIlroy and Lowry are one behind him, with Justin Rose, Tom Kim and Cam Davis are another shot adrift of the leader. Lucas Glover, Russell Henley and Austin Eckroat are in seventh, eighth and ninth, respectively three, four and five strokes back of Straka.
In 20 of the last 25 PGA Tour visits to Pebble Beach the eventual winner was at least tied second going into the final round, but danger does lurk. Phil Mickelson (in 2012) and Vaughn Taylor (in 2016) were six shots back with 18 holes to play, as was last year’s winner Wyndham Clark who thrashed a 60 in a weather affected tournament reduced to 54 holes. The playing conditions were a subject in the third round with plenty of squally wind and rain but Sunday is predicted to be calmer (and much better than what is expected on Monday).
McIlroy starts the final round favourite and is attempting to win one of these early year Californian events for the first time. He did land the WGC Match Play at San Francisco’s Harding Park in 2015, but success at Torrey Pines, Riviera and/or Pebble Beach has eluded him. Lowry finished seventh on his Torrey Pines debut in 2015 but hasn’t managed a top 10 on any of the three (or, indeed, any Californian course) since. Straka won in California a couple of weeks ago but it was on the resort courses of Palm Springs. He has four top 20s on Californian Poa Annua grass by the ocean but no top 10.
McIlroy (best price 12/5) and Lowry (9/2) were able to gain early momentum in their third rounds before the rotten weather came in while Straka (3/1), who has been battling flu all week, did well to birdie four of the last five holes. The trio will play together in the final round which ought to be good for their morale and chances of maintaining those excellent stats for Pebble Beach pace-setters. Straka’s fatigue and those Californian Poa Annua by the ocean stats make me wary of the prices, however. I’d favour Lowry if I had to, but I don’t have to – I can look a little further down.
That said, there is very little form on Californian Poa among those near the top (how many are here by choice rather than PGA Tour Signature Event edict?). Kim has played Poa nicely elsewhere but has no top 20 in four attempts in the Golden State, Davis has one top 10 at Silverado but little elsewhere, Henley and Eckroat have no top 10, Glover has four but has been playing all this century so he’s not exactly prolific. Even Scottie Scheffler, currently T10 in his comeback, has a top 20 in each of his last seven starts in these conditions – but there’s not a top five among them.
In the circumstances, Rose’s record on this coastline is startling. He won this event just two years ago, was third in the 2019 US Open at Pebble and he was also a winner at Torrey Pines earlier that year. He also carded a closing 66 in last year’s event for T11. Remember, too, how well he played at Royal Troon last summer in poor weather (he also got in the mix at Valhalla in the PGA Championship). When he gets the bit between his teeth the veteran Englishman still has a touch of steel and class. He’s also desperate to have another go at the Ryder Cup and a win would undoubtedly help.
He was in a chipper mood after the third round. “I love the position going into tomorrow,” he said. “Once you get up toward the top end of the leaderboard, that’s where you can kind of settle in and that’s where the grinding and the commitment becomes easier in a way. I felt very committed, enjoying the challenge and the battle.”
Of his good course record he said: “Yeah, I know it’s doable and I’m comfortable. It’s not the longest course. It’s quite strategic – it’s a good iron player's golf course. The greens are very small and, when I’m playing well, those elements fit my game.” There is a standout 14/1 but we’ll add him at the general 12/1 each way.
In the three-balls we’ll take Kevin Yu to defeat Corey Conners and Justin Lower.
Lower has a rotten record on the Torrey Pines/Riviera/Pebble Beach trinity (six MCs and a T43) while Conners has a best of T24 in 12 starts on them and he’s only returned to Pebble because he has to. Yu has had his problems, too. In eight starts he’s managed only two top 40s but he was seventh at Pebble in 2023 and sixth at Torrey Pines in 2024. He perhaps should be the other side of 2/1 than he is at 11/5.
Posted at 1045 GMT on 02/02/25
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