Jon Rahm is odds-on to capture his third Open de Espana title, but Min Woo Lee may yet have something to say about that according to Ben Coley.
Golf betting tips: Open de Espana final round
1pt Min Woo Lee to win the Open de Espana at 4/1 (General)
4pts Jorge Campillo to win his three-ball at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Jon Rahm's bid to match Seve Ballesteros with a third Open de Espana title really began to take shape on Saturday evening, and the home favourite is odds-on to convert a one-stroke lead on Sunday.
Rahm almost fell from the front of the market on Friday as the tournament threatened to get away from him as it had last year, but a back-nine rally kept him on track and set the stage for what for many will have felt like an inevitable move to the top of the leaderboard.
Again it took time but after a fine par save at the 17th kept his card clean, he drove the 18th green to ensure that he's out on his own. It's a position from which he'll expect to win and with just one player within two, there's certainly a case to argue that you'll see worse 8/13 shots.
The spanner in the works is the identity of the player in second. Rahm had 128 players to beat this week, and bar perhaps Tommy Fleetwood, MIN WOO LEE would be at the top of the list of rivals who can live with him even in this mood.
It's not just that Lee is even longer than Rahm, it's that he has star quality and has already won a bigger prize than this one. The Aussie can be enormously frustrating, but his A-game is absurdly good.
With the greatest of respect to the six players who are tied for third, three behind Rahm, if any of them traded places with Lee I'd say this tournament was as good as over. But with a player like Lee, who holed a clutch putt of his own at the 18th to keep Rahm close, for now the outcome remains uncertain. He is a special talent.
Rahm is too, of course, and overhauling him on a Sunday in Spain will require the performance of Lee's career. In fact, it almost feels unreasonable to discuss anything but a Rahm victory, and yet odds of 4/1 about the second-favourite in what looks a two-horse race look worth taking, albeit to stakes which pay a nod of respect to the leader.
Rahm's record from the front is good, but I wouldn't call it spectacular, and he actually doesn't have a great deal of experience in this kind of scenario. Back in May, he was two clear with a round to go in Mexico and, yes, won the tournament, but a final-round 69 wasn't especially convincing. Granted, nor was his overall form at the time.
Before that you have to go back to the summer of 2020 for his previous 54-hole lead, when he shot 75 to win the Memorial. That was actually a decent score on an absurd Sunday and the outcome was never in doubt. Earlier the same year he did fail to convert a one-shot lead at the Farmers when second, and he did the same in the 2019 PLAYERS Championship when falling to 12th.
At this level, i.e. the DP World Tour, he's one-from-one, and it came in Spain when capturing this title at this course in 2019. Back then, he led by five and won by five, the outcome again certain throughout that final round. But we're not talking a five-shot lead, we're talking a one-shot lead, and though we're not talking the PGA Tour, we are talking an opponent who has the ability to be winning at that level in the coming years.
Prices dictate bets and at those offered, I have to give Lee the chance to really make a statement. He beat Matt Fitzpatrick to capture the Scottish Open last summer and he really is up to the challenge of beating Rahm to win the Open de Espana on Sunday.
The best bet of the day comes in the three-balls where JORGE CAMPILLO can oblige at a shade of odds-against.
It's been a typically solid year for Campillo, ranked 40th in the Race to Dubai and sure to make it all the way to the DP World Tour Championship. We know exactly where we stand with him and he's not even had to be at his best to be within touching distance of the top 10 here.
Alejandro Canizares isn't one to dismiss out of hand, but he is down at 169th in the season-long rankings and is under huge pressure to climb the leaderboard here and then salvage things next week at his home course, Valderrama.
It might not be a coincidence that he became very ragged towards the end of round three, holing a good putt for bogey at the 17th and then scrambling par after a chunked chip at the final hole.
He's the main threat nonetheless as it's been a terrible year for Dave Coupland, who is 261st in the Race to Dubai and therefore among the bottom five or six players on the circuit. He's putted the lights out this week, as he occasionally does, but Sunday is a big test for someone who hasn't earned a cheque since May bar picking up less than £400 for a mid-pack finish on the EuroPro Tour in July.
Coupland's expected score has to be in the 70s even with conditions set fair, so to take out 25% of the book seems quite a way off and, without dwelling on that, this ought to be a match between two Spaniards. Go with the better player with the better long-game and freedom to go on the attack at an extremely generous 11/10.
Posted at 1945 BST on 08/10/22
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