Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and best bets for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Golf betting tips: The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am final round

1pt e.w. Justin Thomas at 14/1 (Skybet, 888Sport, Coral, Ladbrokes 1,2,3 1/5)

2pts Matthieu Pavon to win his three-ball at 11/5 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

“I am so happy for him. He has worked so hard for this. No, not hard: really hard. Really, he has been working his ass off and we saw the difference in him at the end of last year in Europe. He suddenly came to the course and he was like, I don’t know, it was like he was 2.5 metres tall. He did not change the process though, I think, because I have seen him work for a long time and I saw nothing new. But I think he has been talking to himself differently and, wow, now you see what happens, you see his talent and there is this drastic change in results. It is also nice that he has a little bit of revenge on some very high up people in French golf who underestimated him publicly and he has proved them wrong. Not just wrong but very wrong. I am super happy for him doing that.”

That was Frenchman Mike Lorenzo Vera, chatting with me three days ago at the Bahrain Championship, about his compatriot Matthieu Pavon, a man who just five months ago was respected as a DP World Tour competitor but had yet to win. In early October he corrected that situation in Spain and since earning a PGA Tour card has has been little short of spectacular, contending in the Sony Open, winning the Farmers Insurance Open and now he heads into today’s final round of the A&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with back-to-back triumphs in his sights. It is nothing short of a stunning, and rather wonderful, transformation.

The reigning US Open champion Wyndham Clark leads in California on 17-under-par 199 after a stunning third round of 60. He’s one clear of the young European star Ludvig Åberg and two ahead of Pavon. Mark Hubbard and Thomas Detry are tied fourth and a further stroke behind the leader. The top five will not rest easy, however, because the high quality quartet of Jason Day, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Tom Hoge (the winner of this tournament in 2022) share sixth place, four blows back of the lead, on 13-under.

Ten of the last 11 winners of this event were first, second or sharing second heading into the final lap. Within that stretch Gary Woodland also won the US Open with a 54-hole lead. That’s great news for Clark and Åberg but the US National Weather Service has issued a warning for high wind (potentially up to 60mph) in this part of California and there will be no spectators on the course for safety’s sake. Oh, yes, it’s also going to rain. A lot.

Davis Love III won this event from seven back and T14th in 2001, Vaughn Taylor was the odd man out in the above mentioned run of results – he was six back and tied eighth in 2016. So while windy conditions have made it difficult for chasers to mount a charge in the past, it has also sometimes tripped up the pace-setters. There’s another factor to consider: the Tour’s chief referee Gary Young essentially said that any wind stronger than 40mph presents a problem with playing. So it might be so bad that they complete on Monday when it has all settled down again.

Let’s hope it stays below that 40mph because golf in the wind provides volatility and with it generates great fun. Clark heads into Sunday as the 2/1 favourite, Åberg is 12/5, Pavon 17/2, Scheffler 11/1 and Thomas 14/1.

• Click here to back Justin Thomas with Sky Bet

In spite of those historical stats favouring the top two, the weather makes me wary. Backing at those prices with the knowledge that one decent shot could be flayed by the wind into a hellish spot is not an enticing prospect. Jason Day might appeal as a chaser based on the way he confirmed second at Royal Liverpool last summer in mucky conditions. His back issues are a concern though – a windy day introduces the prospect of that stiffening up.

The pick is Justin Thomas who could be the man to pounce if the wind booby traps the leaders. Two years ago he carded a superb 67 in the second round of the PGA Championship at Southern Hills, on a day when the field was buffeted by strong and gusting wind. He gained over six strokes on his side of the draw that Friday.

His father Mike said of that effort: “He’s good at just going out and playing shots. He really does embrace tougher conditions because he can just go play. His attitude stays pretty positive.”

It has to be said that Thomas is probably only at Pebble Beach because it’s a Signature Event – he missed the cut in his only previous tournament start and also had an early departure at the 2019 US Open. He joked at the start of the week that making the weekend would be a good result.

• Click here to back Matthieu Pavon with Sky Bet

But he also spoke of being phlegmatic about the bumpy Poa Annua greens this week and also insisted that his form was good, and that he was – crucially – experiencing the thin air of being in contention again.

“I’m playing well enough to win,” he said on Friday. “I feel like I am. It’s just about doing it and getting myself in contention more often and feeling those feelings again. I mean, at The American Express, it was unfamiliar. I hadn’t been in a final group for a while.”

He’s not in one this Sunday but he’ll feel the juices flow as he tees off with Scheffler and Hoge. He’s the outright selection at 14/1.

We’ll also add Pavon to win the final three-ball of the day. The wind will make Clark’s task of backing up a 60 so much tougher, Åberg is on the brink of his biggest win but it could be the soggiest, windiest test he’s faced as a pro, the Frenchman can ride the wave of his form and his good feelings. If he was, say, 5/4 to win the three-ball it would not be an option, but the widely available 11/5 is enticing.

Published at 1044 GMT on 04/02/24

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