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Golf betting tips: Ben Coley's preview and best bets for the Club Car Championship
Ben Coley has five recommendations for the Club Car Championship, including a 125/1 shot who drops down to the Korn Ferry Tour close to his home.
Golf betting tips: Club Car Championship
2pts e.w. Patton Kizzire at 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
2pts e.w. Henrik Norlander at 35/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Trent Phillips at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Cole Hammer at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Bryson Nimmer at 500/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The Korn Ferry Tour touches down at the Landings Club in Georgia for its first US event of the year, and with no DP World Tour action, it seems a good time to have a crack at one of the most competitive circuits in golf.
On the one hand, 28/1 the field tells you that these players are hard to split. On the other, it guarantees high reward for being able to, and there are a handful of factors which might just help us do just that.
First is the location. We're in Savannah, where wind is part of the deal. At the time of writing, severe gusts are forecast for Thursday's opening round and this is a tournament that has created a draw bias in the past. Across the first two rounds it's something players are going to have to manage.
Conditions in South America won't have been a million miles from what's expected here, but it is striking how dominant players based in the south and southeastern states have been in this event. Last year's winner, David Skinns, lives in Georgia. TJ Vogel, based in Florida, beat Mark Anderson, who grew up two hours away.
Rewind further and Canada's Adam Svensson has lived in Florida for a long time now. Evan Harmeling and Dan McCarthy, champions before him, likewise. Sam Burns won the inaugural edition and, born and raised in Louisiana, has since established himself as a player who is more effective the closer he is to home.
Factor number two is the course. Deer Creek is a par 72 designed by Tom Fazio, and it features wide fairways and shaved run-offs. If that sounds familiar, it should: Memorial Park, scene of last week's Houston Open, fits the same description.
The fact that Skinns contended along with Max Greyserman, who has three top-10s here, is certainly of interest; Taylor Moore, Scottie Scheffler and Chad Ramey all help tie the two together, too. I'd imagine that if you asked Skinns, he might well say the two played similarly.
Fazio's Victoria National hosts the Korn Ferry Tour Championship and could also tell us something for all that it's a different type of course, whereas Congaree, site of the 2021 Palmetto Championship and 2022 CJ Cup and not far from here, is a Fazio design more alike this one in the way it looks and feels.
I am though hopeful that the key factor proves far more straightforward, because we have a few class-dropping PGA Tour players in attendance and one of them, PATTON KIZZIRE, is dramatically overpriced even after the 150/1 disappeared shortly before publication.
After a strong end to a disappointing 2023, Kizzire was a bit of a letdown at Qualifying School (held at two other courses on this property), but there was all kinds of promise on show again when he tied for 13th place in the Sony Open to begin 2024.
That week, he'd been one of my selections at 175/1, and though he was unable to back it up, I was on him again a week later, this time at 150s, for the AmEx. Suffice to say, these were both vastly stronger events, featuring some of the best players in the sport. In the first of them he split Brian Harman and Harris English. Justin Thomas and Sam Burns contended for the second.
Five missed cuts since explains to some degree why bookmakers are happy to dangle similar prices in this significantly lower-grade tournament, but two came on the number, he shot a second-round 69 having Monday qualified for the high-class Phoenix Open, and he started last week's second round in Houston right around the cut line after an opening 71.
Granted, he played poorly on Friday, driving the ball as badly as he has in some time, but his approach play was some of the very best in the field and I don't think a good putting week is ever that far away where he's concerned. Bad ones have become increasingly common, but it won't take much to flick the switch.
As for the Landings Club, we're about an hour north of Kizzire's longtime Georgia base at Sea Island, where he has often played well. These wide fairways should help enormously along with that sense of being at home, and the wind shouldn't bother him too much given that his PGA Tour victories came by the sea in Mexico and Hawaii.
“This is what I’ve always wanted to do.”
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 19, 2023
An emotional Patton Kizzire opens up after finishing just outside the top 125 in the #FedExCup Fall standings.
His projected position at No. 129 will earn him conditional status next season. pic.twitter.com/7LfTsqofvk
Sport is so often about levels and Kizzire, the dominant Korn Ferry Tour player when last he spent a season at this one, is far too talented to be going off at three-figure prices. I'd be reluctant to make bold statement about markets in general, but in his case I'm surprised to be able to take anything north of 66/1 and had half expected shorter than that.
For that reason, despite a run of missed cuts and an admittedly modest start to the year for this column, he has to be put forward as the headline selection and with a chunkier stake than usual. Hopefully, the positivity he showed towards the back-end of last year returns now he's free from playing on limited status against the best in the world.
Martin Trainer is one example of what can happen when someone drops in grade and the fact he's 33/1 with some firms helps justify my belief that Kizzire is well overpriced. Trainer has very seldom been shorter in the market than Kizzire on the PGA Tour and, fifth at Memorial Park a couple of years ago, looks an obvious candidate who has been priced about right.
Fred Biondi is another towards the top of the betting and, without labouring the point, I put him up at 750/1 on his latest PGA Tour start. Again it doesn't take a great deal more analysis to realise that Kizzire, for all that he's started to drift towards those odds lately, should not be so far removed from others who have also been playing in better fields.
For the record, DataGolf have Quade Cummins and Kevin Roy as the two best players here, both just inside their top 200. Kizzire is only just outside the top 300, with the likes of Doc Redman (66-80/1) and Max McGreevy (40/1) either side of him. I can't find no justification for one of the most decorated players in the field, playing on home soil, being anything like the price he is.
Norlander rock-solid in ideal conditions
Among the favourites, in-form Tim Widing looks like he's on his way to the PGA Tour and Ricky Castillo surely is.
The latter in particular has to be respected and, based in Florida where he was a college star, this should be familiar enough to a player who has been no worse than 20th in his last five Korn Ferry Tour starts.
Castillo played in the Valspar Championship last time out and was exceptional with his approaches and also strong off the tee, let down by a misfiring short-game which for now is probably the only thing holding him back.
Dropping back down, having won on his Korn Ferry Tour debut last June and just recently found a level of consistency, this ought to be his first and only full season at this level. That second win probably isn't far away and you won't go far wrong following him week-to-week.
My only reluctance is that wind in the forecast and whether it might just further enhance the advantages of class and experience while also demanding more from his short-game, which is why I'm siding with HENRIK NORLANDER instead.
Second in the Sanderson Farms last October (tied with Ludvig Aberg), Norlander went on to miss out on full PGA Tour status by the barest of margins and he could be in for another season of high pressure, as he's currently 125th in FedEx Cup points and will have to make the most of his opportunities.
That alone tells you he's played some decent golf and it's not long since he contended in the Mexico Open, eventually fading to 13th, before a solid week in Puerto Rico saw him make it back-to-back top-20s on the main tour.
Prior to that he'd been 20th on this one, his first Korn Ferry Tour appearance since the 2022 Finals, so apart from a poor second round in Houston his game has generally look in excellent shape.
That was all about the putter – Norlander's approach play was excellent – yet he'd gained strokes in all previous measured starts since the end of last season. Always volatile in that regard and ranked as high as second in Mexico a few weeks ago, it's not something we need to dwell on.
Potentially correlating form comes in the shape of 25th at Congaree and 16th at Fazio's Quail Hollow, but it's the Georgia connection I'm most interested in. Norlander has lived in Augusta since he went to college there, and the closest he's been to winning on the PGA Tour was when losing a play-off in the RSM Classic, also in Georgia.
He's played this event twice, finishing 27th when in so-so form in 2019, then 30th in 2019 after a run of MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-62. With some very recent top-20s in better fields behind him, more is expected this time.
Phillips to turn the screw...
Georgia Tech product Ross Steelman is interesting if you're willing to excuse a couple of narrow missed cuts, but another former amateur star is preferred in the shape of TRENT PHILLIPS.
Born in South Carolina, Phillips hopped over the border to go to college in Georgia and went on to climb as high as 11th in the World Amateur Golf Rankings.
After turning pro he earned conditional Korn Ferry Tour status via Qualifying School here in Savannah and it wouldn't have been a surprise that his first performance of note came in North Carolina, under familiar conditions, before he matched it this year in Panama.
Phillips played this event last year, his first Korn Ferry Tour start since 2022, and fared OK in 40th, but better can now be expected having produced four good performances in succession since departing the Bahamas in January.
Thomas Walsh has a broadly similar profile and, again, he's familiar with these parts having been based in Florida and grown up in North Carolina.
He finished 16th here last season, at the time his best performance of the campaign, and went on to end it with 10th at Victoria National, one of those other Fazio designs I mentioned earlier.
Walsh was the 54-hole leader three starts ago and, after a narrow missed cut in Argentina, he was back in contention throughout the Chile Classic, so he looks to be edging closer to a breakthrough that could feasibly arrive this week.
My concern was his finishing effort in Colombia but more of an issue is the fact he's been clipped from 66s, which means he can be left out.
...Cole to Hammer the nail
Chandler Blanchet could do better on his third try in this having been 22nd when only a conditional member in 2021 and started well on debut the previous year. He's been in the mix twice in four starts so far and it seems as though dominating in South America last summer has helped him make the transition.
Mitchell Meissner is another who showed abundant promise on the LatinoAmerica circuit and is now bringing that with him to this one and he too is respected, but I'd rather chance another PGA Tour U graduate, COLE HAMMER.
He's not yet hit the heights expected and suffered a bruising 2023 season, but things are looking up after five cuts made from five Korn Ferry Tour starts in 2024, four of them top-30 finishes.
He was in the mix all week at the Astara Golf Championship and followed it with 10th place in Argentina, then defying a slow start in Chile for a respectable share of 26th, before missing the cut by a couple of shots in Houston last week.
Hammer was in with a chance of making it until a bogey-bogey finish and I'm hopeful he can do as he did in 2022, and follow that event by contending in Georgia a week later.
Back then it was the RSM Classic, where he finished fifth having been the 36-hole leader, and the former Texas Longhorn is another who shouldn't mind the forecast nor the golf course, with that previous 27th at Memorial Park encouraging enough.
Clearly possessing a high ceiling and now at last climbing towards it, he's worth a bet at 66s.
Course form points to Bryson
Trey Mullinax is a fascinating runner on his comeback from injury given that he's been fourth at Memorial Park and, just over a year ago, was eighth at Arnold Palmer. We're not yet two years removed from a win which was followed by 21st in the Open and he has his conditions, but he's been absent since October.
Second at Victoria National the last time he played at this level and a new dad for those who like the nappy factor, I'd perhaps have chanced him but for the fact it'll be windy throughout the first two days. His lack of sharpness seems likely to be exposed, and that's enough to ignore the big carrot that's being dangled at 200/1.
Russell Knox (still hitting it well and showing flashes of form) and Kevin Tway (Memorial Park positive) are two others with pedigree who are quoted at big prices and the bottom line from me is that it will be no surprise at all if Sunday's leaderboard features any one of those with a PGA Tour profile.
Finally, at an enormous price I can't resist a flier on BRYSON NIMMER at anything 250/1 or bigger.
Things haven't yet clicked for a player who was once highly touted, but if they're going to it'll probably be here at the Landings Club, where he was 10th last year despite arriving in modest form and was practising just last week.
Nimmer went on to top a competitive second stage Q-School event on the same Deer Creek course they're playing this week, closing with a round of 62, so he's 27-under for his last eight competitive rounds here.
That alone is enough to overlook a run of MC-66-MC-MC-MC-MC to begin the year, especially when you consider his final starts before that Q-School efforts were all missed cuts, and he'd gone MC-MC-31-MC before finishing 10th in this event.
Twice a winner in Georgia on the LatinoAmerica Tour, the South Carolina native who reached the top level of amateur golf has to be worth a speculative roll of the dice given his course form.
Posted at 1330 GMT on 02/04/24
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