Golf betting tips: Ben Coley's Honda Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Honda Classic

4pts win Sungjae Im at 14/1 (General)

1.5pts e.w. Alex Noren at 35/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Brian Harman at 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Aaron Wise at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Austin Smotherman at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Luke Donald at 300/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

There's built-in contrast to this part of the PGA Tour season, as we swap west coast for east, but rarely is it so stark. Last week we had the strongest edition of the Genesis Invitational in memory: the world's top 10 took part, several of them having played in that thrilling Phoenix Open a week earlier. This week, every one of them takes a breather, as the Florida swing begins on something of a low-key note.

For some that will be evidence in the case for a Tour with problems but for me, it's a significant part of the appeal. Here, at PGA National, the list of potential winners is surely longer than was the case at Riviera, and we don't have to weigh the various pros and cons of elite players all capable of winning on any given week. The fact that every single Korn Ferry Tour graduate gets a welcome start is no less significant a positive.

All this might not be what sponsors are looking for, but punters ought to embrace variety and that's exactly what we have at this Jack Nicklaus-designed course, where a big part of the challenge is to keep it out of the water – another contrast from Riviera, which has none of it. Ultimately, PGA National and its infamous Bear Trap almost guarantee drama whoever shows up, unless someone does as Matt Jones did and runs away with it.

Jones is back to defend and helps underline how often the home challenge has been upstaged by an international player. Since the event switched courses, nine of 15 champions have come from beyond the borders of the United States, and while that to some extent reflects the nature of fields, it might also have something to do with a tough, exposed course, and the fact that so many overseas players have made Florida their base down the years.

Shane Lowry is one of those and he's shown abundant promise here in the past, including when selected last year. It's approaching three years since he won the Open but further titles will surely follow if his iron play remains as sharp as it's been for a while now, and despite a lack of breeze in the forecast this remains a good test for the Irishman.

The man he beat at Portrush, Tommy Fleetwood, has threatened to win on both starts at PGA National and is also respected. He's led the field in greens hit on each of his last two starts, a telltale sign that his game is coming back round, but I was disappointed with his back-nine in Saudi Arabia last time and have lost patience for the time being. Yet to win on the PGA Tour, a field like this and a course like this makes for a fantastic opportunity, but at 18/1 generally he's easy to leave out.

More difficult was Billy Horschel, who tends to win when he's bang in-form and certainly looks to be at the moment. Small but potentially significant improvements in his long-game set the Floridian up for this important part of the calendar, one which may define his Presidents Cup bid, and with a couple of top-10s to his name he'd have been selected in this suitable event had there been a bit more juice in a price which has been tumbling.

Favourite hard to leave out at the price

The market shapes selections though and I keep coming back to SUNGJAE IM, who could easily have been chalked up shorter for this and looks to me like he could take some beating.

• CLICK HERE to back Im with Sky Bet

Im won this title in 2020, holding off Fleetwood and a charging Mackenzie Hughes, and made a solid defence when eighth last year despite his approach play badly misfiring. Since then, he's doubled his PGA Tour tally with an impressive victory in the Shriners, and after a bright start to the current campaign he looks one to keep close during the next month or so.

Fundamentally, Im has so far been more effective both on bermuda grass and on this style of golf course than the likes of Torrey Pines and Riviera, where he nevertheless finished sixth and 33rd respectively on this lighter-than-usual schedule he's adopted. All told he's made 11 starts in Florida so far and as well as winning here, he's been third twice in the Arnold Palmer, fourth in the Valspar, and a solid 17th at Sawgrass. Nine of the 11 have been top-30s, something he's achieved just six times in 17 tries in California.

Last week he endured a poor Saturday but bounced back on Sunday and when you consider that his previous record in the Genesis Invitational showed two starts and two missed cuts, suddenly a mid-pack finish which so easily could've been better begins to look really promising.

As for this course and why he seems to enjoy it so much, Im's game is impressively mature, and for a not-especially-long hitter he is a quite brilliant driver. Essentially, he plays the sport from the right spots and is a fine all-rounder, who in eight of his last 12 starts has ranked inside the top 10 in strokes-gained tee-to-green. Given that the last four champions here all led that category, Im appears absolutely primed for a strong bid.

The fact his putter has warmed up over the last fortnight is also encouraging as he really won't be hindered at all by the change in grass, and with Daniel Berger's fitness unclear, and Joaquin Niemann having spent four days under intense pressure at Riviera, the stage is set for Im to win this title again. He's a very strong favourite.

Swede success for Noren?

Sticking with the overseas theme, ALEX NOREN marginally shades preference over another past winner in Keith Mitchell after catching the eye last week.

• CLICK HERE to back Noren with Sky Bet

It's true that Noren does appear to really like Riviera, where his left-to-right shot shape is a big asset, but it was nevertheless highly encouraging to see him produce his best strokes-gained approach stats since the same tournament a year ago.

Getting his irons firing is key to Noren contending as he won't win a tournament with driver, but can usually be relied upon to produce the goods in the short-game department. Golf being golf, however, that big improvement with his approaches was undermined by what he did on the greens, going from the single best putter in Phoenix to among the worst in LA.

Nevertheless, we ought not to get too hung up on that – his putter is and will remain a strength – and instead focus on the positives which include third place here in 2018, plus the fact he's based just a short walk from the course. Granted, Noren is not alone in that department, Florida being a hotbed for PGA Tour talent, but his comfort here and his experience are big assets at a course which places everyone under real pressure from day one.

Indeed there's no getting away from the fact that the Honda Classic roll-of-honour is stacked with major champions, or those like Michael Thompson and Rickie Fowler who've gone close to winning one, and older players like Adam Scott, Padraig Harrington, Rory Sabbatini and Jones himself.

Noren, who turns 40 this summer and has some strong major credentials, looks precisely the right type and this stadium-style course shares much in common with Le Golf National, scene of his last win and one which came courtesy of the sort of score that's usually competitive here.

Lefty in the limelight...?

Another small factor which might work in Noren's favour is that he's ranked 70th in the world, with a place in the WGC-Match Play within his grasp. Get into that and he could qualify for the Masters, so these next couple of weeks are going to have a big bearing on his year.

The same is true of BRIAN HARMAN who is currently at 61st in the world and will also have eyes on the top 50.

• CLICK HERE to back Harman with Sky Bet

The left-hander holds a share of the course record having shot an incredible 61 on his debut here 10 years ago, and while yet to crack the top 10 he missed out only by a shot after a final-round 64 in 2015. All told he's made six cuts in nine and done everything to suggest it's a good place for him, except for connecting four rounds together.

This might be the week he does it, because Harman's approach play was excellent when third in The American Express, and very good again in Phoenix, where he endured a poor putting week but still managed 14th in a field which was significantly stronger than this one. If he repeats either of these two performances, he's entitled to be bang there.

A Georgia Bulldog, Harman's putting stats on bermuda show improvement from the bentgrass and poa annua surfaces of the last few weeks and he's definitely entitled to an upgrade for a return to the east coast, while the fact his major record shows second place in a US Open plus top-20s in each of the other three just last year alone is another positive.

Harman has been a little frustrating to follow but his tee-to-green performance last time was his best since he won the Wells Fargo in 2017, and ranks as one of the best of his career. It could well pay to take the hint, with the putter likely to come to the party this time.

Aaron looks a Wise play

It's no surprise to see money coming for Mito Pereira after his 'big brother' (Niemann is actually significantly younger, but far more experienced) won last week. He's one of the Korn Ferry Tour graduates to have impressed and the same is true of Cameron Young, who won a junior tournament here once but, like Niemann, could suffer a hangover.

Instead I'm inclined to give AARON WISE another chance, a fortnight after he let us down a little in Phoenix.

• CLICK HERE to back Wise with Sky Bet

Wise hit the ball terribly there after an encouraging start to the year at Torrey Pines, but while down the field at Riviera, we saw the necessary ball-striking improvements as he ranked a solid 24th with his approaches and gained strokes off the tee.

He'll need to improve again, but there are echoes of 2021 when he arrived here with form figures of MC-66-MC-65, only to shoot a pair of 64s over the first two rounds to hold a three-shot lead at halfway.

Despite falling to 13th, it was another good performance at PGA National, where Wise has made all three cuts and averages a respectable 70.33. It's the sort of relentless test he really ought to enjoy and while his sole win came under lights-out scoring conditions, I'd wager his next will be when par means something.

Wise is another Florida resident with bags of talent and reminds me a little of Niemann last week, albeit he hasn't quite been in the same form. Nevertheless, he was playing beautifully towards the end of last year and hopefully turned a corner at Riviera, where he'd previously missed three cuts from three.

Who are the best outsiders?

I had planned to side with Adam Svensson next, a former winner of Qualifying School here and one who shot a second-round 64 in his sole start in the Honda Classic. The Canadian has caught the eye several times already this season, is capable of that big tee-to-green performance we need, and would've been selected but for the 150/1 quotes having rapidly disappeared.

It may seem a little silly to leave out a player because they're 100/1 rather than 150/1 but I'm all too aware 100s soon becomes 80s and even 66s, so on this occasion I'll have to admit defeat despite the fact he was the first name onto my shortlist when beginning research last week.

Matt NeSmith is another with winning course form here from his junior days while JT Poston's game is coming back around, but I'll throw a couple of proper darts to round things off.

First up is AUSTIN SMOTHERMAN, a young, talented Californian who must surely take encouragement from the exploits of Sahith Theegala and the aforementioned Young.

• CLICK HERE to back Smotherman with Sky Bet

Both those two have had a chance to win top-class PGA Tour events over the last fortnight and Smotherman could well emulate them having began this week off the radar, despite finishes of 11th and 33rd in his last two starts.

Last time out he sat fifth at halfway before struggling a little over the weekend at Pebble Beach, before which a closing 66 at the tough South Course saw him finish just shy of the places at Torrey Pines, and he looks to be finding his feet as he eliminates the ruinous rounds we saw earlier in the season.

An all-the-way winner in Tennessee last year, Smotherman looks to have plenty about him and while he hails from California, he's made Texas his base since attending college with Bryson DeChambeau.

Ultimately though it's his iron play which piques my interest, ranking second and ninth across the aforementioned tournaments, and while I'm not certain this is an ideal course he does look worth a roll of the dice.

On which note, I'll sign off with LUKE DONALD in preference to Chris Stroud.

• CLICK HERE to back Donald with Sky Bet

Donald's approach play was superb in Phoenix, where he was annoyed to miss the cut by a single shot. It was also very good in the Sony Open, where he finished 27th, as it had been last summer when 16th in the 3M Open, and when 13th in the Byron Nelson.

These sporadic performances underline that he's far more likely to struggle than he is to challenge the places, however he's a longtime Florida resident with four top-10s here at PGA National, and it remains the sort of course where he could pop up if avoiding big mistakes at the wrong time.

Two years ago he was 11th out of nowhere, missing the places narrowly and again showing that his iron play can still be very good, and last year he gained three strokes with approaches in just two rounds and really ought to have made the cut. Having put him up then at 500/1, Donald played really well bar one nightmare at the 17th hole, where he dropped six shots in taking nine.

Clearly, the risk that something similar occurs is there but he's made two cuts in four this year, missed narrowly in Phoenix last time, and has dropped a number of hints that there might be one final hurrah. If it comes, most likely it's in a weak field, at a short course, and perhaps in the state where he was so deadly at his peak.

As for Stroud, he turned 40 during the Pebble Beach Pro-Am where, for the third time in four starts, his iron play was also very good.

He's playing on a medical extension and has plenty to do to salvage his own career, but this recent upturn with his irons looks significant and sustained, and suggests he too can compete on a shorter course where he's somewhat comfortable.

Stroud was consistently good here during his best years, finishing ninth, 13th and 12th, and is in a much better place than when missing the cut on his last visit. With eight places on offer, I wouldn't put anyone off taking a chance at 400/1, but one out-of-form veteran is probably enough on this increasingly young man's PGA Tour.

Posted at 1735 GMT on 21/02/22

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