Ben Coley is keen to get Pablo Larrazabal on-side ahead of what promises to be a thrilling conclusion to the Bahrain Championship.
Golf betting tips: Bahrain Championship final round
3pts Pablo Larrazabal to win the Bahrain Championship at 15/2 (General)
1.5pts Francesco Laporta to win the Bahrain Championship at 6/1 (General)
0.5pt Larrazabal-Laporta dual forecast at 28/1 (Sky Bet)
When Callum Tarren lost his PGA Tour card last year, he was caught by two safety nets. One was the Korn Ferry Tour, where he can play as often as he likes this year and already has, once, missing the cut in the Bahamas. The other was the DP World Tour where last week he missed the cut by two, and where this week he leads heading into the final round.
If ever anything summed up the fickle nature of professional golf and its fine margins at all levels below the very top one, it is this story. And if ever a tournament helped underline the gap between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, it is this one, because a year ago its champion was in precisely the same boat, struggling in the US before winning at huge odds here in Bahrain.
I'm not sold on the exemption which allowed Tarren to jump ahead of Challenge Tour and Q-School graduates in the queue, but the 'strategic alliance' between these two tours explains it. If the pay-off for allowing five struggling players the chance to come to Europe (and Asia, and Africa, and Australia) is a co-sanctioned Scottish Open and, hopefully, a co-sanctioned Irish Open at some stage, then maybe it's worth it.
Tarren might feel like he's playing with house money given the opportunity he's been given and he's a shot ahead entering Sunday, but it's seldom that simple. This is a one-time exemption and if he focuses on the DP World Tour ahead of the Korn Ferry Tour, he could feasibly be on the Challenge Tour next season, 18 months on from playing for millions in America. Sunday might be a very important day in his career.
A winner on the China Tour but not beyond, it's hard to know what to expect and 5/1 is a bigger price than you'd usually see about a 54-hole leader, even on a leaderboard which is rather bunched, eight players within two and a further 10 within two more. However he did start to spray the driver a bit on Saturday and while Frittelli managed it, it's hard for players who've been missing cuts to complete such a dramatic turnaround.
Playing with affable compatriot Brandon Robinson Thompson may help and the latter is fascinating, as he's done plenty of winning at lower levels than this one over the past three or so years. That may give him an edge over Tarren but I just wonder whether a final group made up of two DP World Tour maidens who can both spray it a bit off the tee may prove vulnerable.
In that scenario plenty will turn to the classy Laurie Canter, who has made just one bogey all week, but he's being afforded maximum respect and I'm more interested in the four players who've overcome a pretty significant draw bias to contend.
They are Ivan Cantero, Andrea Pavan, FRANCESCO LAPORTA and PABLO LARRAZABAL, and the latter duo are best-placed with just a shot to wind.
With Cantero on side pre-tournament and having surrendered a place in the final group with two late three-putts, and Pavan also having more ground to make up, I'm quite sweet on the idea of siding with both members of the penultimate two-ball in the hope that they might feed off each other somewhat.
Larrazabal is the most decorated player on this leaderboard and won the 2023 Korea Championship in dominant fashion from a similar position. He's leading the tee-to-green statistics this week and, inspired no doubt by seeing a young compatriot win last week, this nine-time DP World Tour champion looks the clear value option.
By the way, nine wins is more than double the combined tally of the other 11 players who sit T12 or better heading into Sunday. He could play badly because golfers play badly sometimes, but he won't play badly because the prospect of winning this title is too much for him to handle.
Seven of those wins came in the mid-teens score needed and Larrazabal loves this sort of challenge, with heavily contoured greens demanding the sort of creativity which helped produce a birdie at the tough 15th. Sunday's breezy forecast is ideal, too, and he surely ought to be priced as the biggest danger, perhaps even the joint-favourite.
Laporta contended in Korea and South Africa last year and has been hitting the ball so well for so long that he looks likely to stick around. That would make it four top-10s in his last 10 starts and a win has been coming, so he looks the pick of the alternatives.
It's 28/1 with Sky Bet that these two fill the first two positions and having overcome a 2.5-stroke bias to get this far, the penultimate pairing looks the one to focus on.
Posted at 1440 GMT on 01/02/25
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