Golf betting tips: AIG Women’s Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: AIG Women's Open

2pts e.w. Jin Young Ko at 18/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Lydia Ko at 25/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Georgia Hall at 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Amy Yang at 75/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Moriya Jutanugarn at 150/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The history of the AIG Women’s Open is nowhere near as long and storied as you might expect. Incredibly, it was first played in 1976 and, even more astonishingly, the second edition was decided by – wait for it – count back. Despite nearly folding in the 1980s, the championship has blossomed in the 21st century and this week’s visit to the home of golf is its third. To celebrate the occasion the 2024 summer, which has already provided such a festival of wind and rain at Royal Troon for the men’s Open, has more bad weather in store, not that we should be too surprised.

At the first championship played on the Old Course, in 2007, Mexico’s Lorena Ochoa posted a bunker- and bogey-free 67 in round one and then added 73-73-74 to win by four shots on five-under-par. In the third round, during the worst of the wind, only two players bettered her 73 and neither of them could break 72. Six years later, strong wind forced the players off the course on Saturday and the halfway leaders played 36 holes on Sunday. Stacy Lewis won with a total of eight-under.

The weather undoubtedly impacted scoring but, nonetheless, the Old Course has presented a different test for the women than for the men. In the latter’s St Andrews Opens in the 21st century there have been winners who hit lots of greens (although not all) but they have all excelled with the short game. The strengths of Ochoa and Lewis at their peak was always hitting greens, and the stats from Lewis’s win (there are none from 2007) indicate that finding the putting surface mattered more than performance on them. It was not so much that the leading golfers didn’t putt better than the rest, more that everyone struggled.

We should, perhaps, expect more of the same because whichever weather forecast site you visit high wind, courtesy of Rainstorm Ernesto, is predicted with the worst of it before the weekend. The Old Course is notoriously slow. This field is notoriously slow. Golfers are notorious for playing slowly in wind. Don’t be surprised if the cut falls sometime between lunch and tea on Saturday.

Will there be a draw bias? It’s tricky to determine. Thursday’s highest winds are expected to be 20-25mph from 6am to 4pm with gusts of 40-50mph. The worst of Friday’s weather is predicted to be in the middle of the day. Maybe late/early starters on Friday will get an advantage but delays or inaccuracies/changes in the forecast could rumble any guesswork.

First pick is weather-related and takes us back to the 2015 championship. It was a remarkable week when Turnberry’s new owner Donald Trump insisted that he didn’t intend to distract attention from a major championship with any shenanigans of his own. So he arrived by helicopter on the Thursday morning, buzzed the back nine and held a press conference in which he discussed his determination to stand as President and arm America to the hilt.

Amid this orange nonsense the skies turned black, and it was comically filthy late on Friday evening when the unknown JIN YOUNG KO walked up 18 and into the limelight, her progress guided by local caddie Jeff Brighton. It was her major championship debut and she’d only played a few holes of linksland golf, but she trusted what Brighton told her. By week’s end only the world number one Inbee Park had bested her and might another caddie point the way to further linksland success?

Ko’s bagman this week is David Brooker who worked for Ochoa during her Old Course triumph in 2007 and his experience could prove vital. Ko has had a frustrating time of it in this event since that sparkling debut and has actually returned to the links just twice (although she was third at Woburn in 2019).

She’s also had difficulties with injury and form in recent times but the summer has offered promise. She was second in the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship (when she led Strokes Gained Approach) and was sixth in last week’s Women’s Scottish Open (when sixth for GIR). Tee time guesswork could lead up blind alleys this week but, for what it’s worth, she might play the back nine after the wind dies down on Thursday and is out early on Friday.

The tournament favourite Ayaka Furue won the Evian Championship, has won the Scottish Open and was third in the latter last week but might be a touch short. Second favourite Nelly Korda still hasn’t finished top 10 on the links and has never bothered to hone the craft in the Scottish Open; she’s more easily avoided.

Atthaya Thitikul appears to remain wary of her wrist and Miyuu Yamashita dodging the Scottish Open is also off-putting. Defending champion Lilia Vu doesn’t appeal at the price, Charley Hull feels too short on the linksland, Lauren Coughlin is in red hot form but also a short price for her career record, Haeran Ryu has the tee-to-green game but no links experience, and Xiyu Lin has a St Andrews top 20 but no win on the LPGA.

So, one Ko down, let’s add another in the shape of LYDIA KO.

We were delighted to back her at 40/1 when she won the Olympics and she may still hold value at 28/1. She finished third at Turnberry in 2015 and she was seventh at Muirfield two years ago. She also briefly contended at Royal Lytham in 2018, Royal Troon in 2020 and has five top-12 finishes in the Scottish Open including ninth last week.

A gold medal/home of golf double would be quite a sign off for her career and it’s well within her grasp.

Hall back where she belongs

Ko shared low amateur honours with GEORGIA HALL on the Old Course in 2013 and both of them can contend for the bigger prize this week.

The Englishwoman revealed at the championship media day that she is so smitten with St Andrews she would love to buy a house there and she also has fond memories of playing the four-hole champions event at the 150th Open in 2022 alongside Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Lee Trevino. Hall made a point of hoping that the weather would be rotten this week and she’s got that wish.

In addition to her championship triumph at Royal Lytham in 2018 she was third the year before at Kingsbarns (when staying in the auld grey toon), and second at Carnoustie. She also has six top-25s in the Scottish Open, including T12 last week at Dundonald Links (a fifth top 20 in seven starts this summer). 55/1 looks generous against many lower in price.

We’ll stick with another successful pick in the Olympics, AMY YANG, whose top four in this event last year was one of two in the 2023 majors and she backed that up with victory in the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship ahead of fifth place in Paris.

Her consistency and quality at the highest level is backed up by 22 top-10s in 76 starts and she has recorded fifth at Royal Birkdale and fourth at Carnoustie in this event on the links.

She’s also finished fifth at Gullane, fourth at Machynys Peninsula and second at Royal St David’s by the sea. 70/1 has juice.

Finally, add MORIYA JUTANUGARN.

She’s finished second at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open, and T16 at Kingsbarns (when second after 54 holes) and ninth at Carnoustie in this championship. She also made the cut in her tournament debut on The Old Course in 2013 when ranking fifth for hitting greens.

She was a winner just two starts ago and it might be coincidence but the site of that victory was Colombia Edgewater. Ochoa won there in 2007 and Lewis, who would win there four years later, was second in 2013. She’s the pick of the outsiders at 150/1.

Posted at 1730 BST on 20/08/24

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