Ben Coley seeks to end a profitable week by finding the winner of the PGA Championship, where Mito Pereira is the man to catch.
Ben's first-round preview produced a total profit of 39.98pts before a 3/1 winning double in round two
Golf betting tips: PGA Championship final round
2pts Will Zalatoris to win the PGA Championship at 9/2 (Unibet)
1pt Zalatoris-Fitzpatrick dual forecast at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Young-Fitzpatrick dual forecast at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2.5pts Brooks Koepka to beat Harold Varner at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
The PGA Championship has developed into a contest fought out by players yet to win on the PGA Tour. Golf statistician Justin Ray revealed that this has not happened in a major championship since before 1990, at which point he presumably stopped looking, the message having been established: this is either totally unprecedented, or at the very least so rare as to have last happened before any of the four was born.
Matt Fitzpatrick has of course won seven times on the DP World Tour and come close in the US. Will Zalatoris has done everything but win, finishing second more than once now, including in the Masters and when losing a play-off earlier this year. Soon after that, Cameron Young threatened to win the strongest event of the season so far when he pushed Joaquin Niemann all the way in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.
But Pereira, well Pereira hasn't done any of this. He's been on the radar of golf fans for a long time, as a top-five amateur who soon won professional titles at a lower level. He made it look easy on the Korn Ferry Tour, three wins there earning him a PGA Tour card which he's likely now to posses for a very long time. His underlying numbers reveal a top-class ball-striker who it seemed just needed a little more time to put everything together.
Then bang, in just his second major he has a three-shot lead thanks to a combination of factors, including a good draw, his own ball-striking brilliance, and what looks like being the best putting week of his burgeoning career. So far the 27-year-old has answered every question, including a fabulous response to four bogeys in five holes around the turn on Saturday, but now he faces the toughest one of all: can he go on to convert?
He just might. Some players are built different, and he could be one of them, like Scottie Scheffler, like Collin Morikawa, who both got a chance and took it. It's often said that players generally need to come through an initiation period, to suffer a near-miss, before they're ready to win a major, and for the most part it's true. Then every so often an exception comes along, and Pereira walks like one of those.
That's not to say he's a bet at 6/4, because we still don't know. And while the chasing pack have similar questions to answer, the winning form coming courtesy of Justin Thomas, Stewart Cink and Bubba Watson who are all seven shots back, there's enormous pressure on the man in front. If he does win, it'll be among the most impressive major victories I can recall, because there's a big difference between what Scheffler and Morikawa had done in the sport before they won theirs, and what Pereira has so far achieved as a PGA Tour rookie ranked 100th in the world.
Mito Pereira holds a three-stroke lead over Matt Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris following the third round of the PGA Championship. It marks his first lead after any round on the PGA TOUR.
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) May 21, 2022
At the prices he has to be taken on and I'm afraid this is one of those unfortunate scenarios where I can't side with the player I want to side with, which is Fitzpatrick. Like many, particularly in Europe I suspect, I've long been a big fan of the Englishman, and of the view he would have his chances at this level. This is his first of note and I don't think he'll fail because of the occasion – he is tough, he has a vastly experienced caddie, and quite simply knows how to win.
However, whether the market has been spooked by some missed putts or UK bookmakers have built up liabilities on the UK contender, or something else is at play, it now looks quite bizarre. Prior to the tournament, WILL ZALATORIS was a shorter price than Fitzpatrick. Now it's 100/30 versus 9/2 and while you'll get 4/1 Fitzpatrick on the exchanges, even there he's shorter than the American.
Prices ultimately determine selections and with little to choose between the two (and nothing in terms of their scores), Zalatoris has to get the vote. He's got a few things in his favour, too: he's away from the spotlight of the final group, and he's the only one of the top six who has been in the mix for a major before. The latter in particular might be significant, and he's stood tall for all four major top-10s, especially so when runner-up at Augusta last year.
The short putts he missed during round three were of course unsettling, though not surprising, and explain why he was four shots worse than Pereira on the day. In fact every other member of the top four outperformed Zalatoris with the putter by over four and a half strokes, which in turn tells you which of the four produced the best golf from tee-to-green.
It is going to be difficult for Zalatoris to win this without making those four- and five-foot putts, and the idea that as the pressure increases, his putting worsens, is one that makes some sense. However, there is one piece of evidence that contradicts this theory: the single best putter during round four of the Masters last month was Will Zalatoris.
That is to say nothing much except that he is capable of a good day on the greens when it counts. We've seen him do it. We haven't seen Pereira do it, and like him neither Fitzpatrick nor Young has given themselves the opportunity to do it. And, over one round in which he may well face fewer of those short putts he so badly struggles with, I don't think anyone should be fixated on his weakness. It makes for difficult viewing and gives everyone something to talk about, but it might not stop him from becoming a major champion.
A slow start led to strong finish for Will Zalatoris during Round 3. Now, he's hoping that momentum will take him all the way to his first major victory.#PGAChamphttps://t.co/7miuor2pzJ
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 22, 2022
Fitz won't be far away
However the event unfolds – and, given the nature of the leaderboard, there are cases for Abraham Ancer (18/1) and Justin Thomas (30/1) at least picking up some place money – I don't think Fitzpatrick will go far, whereas I can see Pereira struggling if he gets off to a slow start.
With that in mind, the ZALATORIS-FITZPATRICK DUAL-FORECAST appeals at 8/1, with YOUNG-FITZPATRICK thrown in as a small-stakes saver at twice the price.
Ultimately, we have a rookie leader being pursued by players you could legitimately describe as the best driver, the best iron player and the best putter on the PGA Tour. It makes for a fascinating conclusion to what has been a wonderful week on a golf course which has more than played its part, and it's only price which forces me towards Zalatoris over Fitzpatrick.
If you're not as bothered by price and can get the 5.2 currently being traded on Betfair Exchange, by all means back the latter and cheer on a player seeking to become the only English winner of this in the stroke play era. If Fitzpatrick does win, it will be worth celebrating.
Finally, there are a handful of tempting two-ball options, including Robert MacIntyre from the second group out. He's in with Patton Kizzire, who offered some scathing criticism of the course after his third round, and perhaps the Scot will benefit from a better attitude as he seeks to end another good major on a high.
Later on, Keegan Bradley's overall form might entitle him to be a bit shorter to beat Jason Day while Viktor Hovland, cheered on by Oklahoma crowds, can get the better of Tony Finau, but the best bet is BROOKS KOEPKA to beat Harold Varner III.
Clearly, players paired together for Sunday have produced similar performances this week and there's an argument that nobody should be massively short, but Koepka isn't: we can have even-money about by far the superior player here, and that does surprise me.
It is true that Varner has produced the better tee-to-green display so far but that's his game and Koepka is still entitled to be more like BoyleSports' 8/11 than the evens offered by Paddy Power and Betfair, with Unibet offering 49/50 and bet365 quoting 5/6. Anything that price and upwards offers value for those seeking afternoon entertainment, though I suspect most will have other things to worry about before settling down for the main event this evening.
Posted at 0915 BST on 22/05/22
More PGA Championship content
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- Betfair... Only Bettor: US PGA podcast
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