Free golf betting tips for US Women's Open from expert Matt Cooper

Recommended bets

2pt e.w. Jin Young Ko at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Stacy Lewis at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Cheyenne Knight at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Ayaka Furue at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

If US Opens are tough – and we know that they are, the USGA likes it that way – then playing a US Open on two courses is automatically tougher. Welcome to the US Women’s Open 2020, the final major championship of this season and one which is so socially-distanced the field will play the first 36 holes over two layouts at The Champions Club in Houston, Texas. It’s odd and it’s unusual, but this is the year in which we’ve compromised and so, in order to get 156 players completing 18 holes of golf with limited daylight hours, that’s the deal.

Will it have an impact? I believe there’s a good chance that it will, as the picks will reveal, but first let’s get a grip on the tournament via a few numbers. We’ll start with the fact that this is the 75th edition of the tournament making it the oldest of the women’s majors. It’s also the most prestigious because whereas in the men’s game the PGA Championship sits a little behind the other three, in the women’s game this event sits ahead of the other four.

In recent years the tournament has been dominated by South Koreans who have triumphed eight times in the last 12 renewals. It’s also unsurprising that next-best in achievement is the home nation who have seven wins in the last 18. It’s an easy numbers game, therefore, to spot that only two winners have emerged from beyond those two countries' borders since 2002.

One of them was Annika Sorenstam, who at the time was dominating the sport, and the other Ariya Jutanugarn, who would soon afterwards become world number one. The only other winner since the 1990s is Karrie Webb who, like Sorenstam, is a legend of the game meaning that only three utterly outstanding golfers have breached the Korean/American grip on the trophy in the 21st century. Even five of the six players to have lost play-offs in the same period came from those two nations, so tight are their colours tied around the silverware.

It’s also true that high quality players excel in this event. Seven of the last 10 winners ranked top 10 for Score Average in the season of her win and two of the three exceptions were Koreans yet to attain LPGA membership (In Gee Chun and So Yeon Ryu) who ranked first and second for that category in their rookie years which followed.

All of which bodes well for the tournament favourite Sei-Young Kim, who leads the score averages for the season by over a stroke. The 27-year-old has been the standout performer on the circuit in warm weather/high wind conditions for some years now, but in the last 15 months she has taken her game to another level, landing in 11 top-10s in 14 LPGA starts, the last two of which have been five- and three-shot victories. She’s undoubtedly on fire, but with one top 10 in six championship starts, I’m content that even if she wins, I won’t be kicking myself given that the books are offering just 10/1 (and even as low as a miserly 6/1).

I respect the chances of Inbee Park, who has twice placed in the majors this season, but she’s only a touch longer than Kim. As is Danielle Kang, another with a good chance but I’m wary that she’s yet to get out of third gear in the majors in 2020. Instead, my pick from the head of the market is world number one JIN YOUNG KO.

The 25-year-old raced to that position with four LPGA victories in five months through the heart of 2019 before an ankle injury late in the campaign stalled further success. She was recuperating in the early months of this year and even after the resumption of action post-lockdown she was awaiting the opportunity to resume competitive action.

Ultimately she chose to reappear on the KLPGA where she made a slow start before ticking off three top-10s in a row, sniffing the lead on all three occasions. She could manage only T34th in her return to the LPGA at the end of last month, but then headed into the final round one shot back of the lead last week before settling for a tie for fifth.

She will not end this year in the top 10 for Score Average, but last year she comfortably topped it and next year she is sure to feature in the higher reaches because she leads the world entirely on merit and her major championship class is revealed in a tally of two wins and a third in her last five starts.

The clincher for me is her mindset: she has an admirably clear manner of thinking and I don’t think she’ll be fazed by the two-course test. For some in the field there has to be a concern that they will be frazzled by Wednesday evening, playing and researching 36 holes. Ko, in contrast, has experience of finishing second at Turnberry off the back of one practice round alone. I also like what she said last week: “I miss this tour. I miss (being) competitive. I want to win again.”

Picks two and three are also inspired by the two-course quirk, but take the rather simpler route of backing players who have local knowledge of the 6,731-yard, par-71 Cypress Creek Course (which hosts the weekend rounds as well as one pre-cut lap) and the 6,558-yard, par-71 Jackrabbit Course (just the one lap on either Thursday or Friday).

First up is STACY LEWIS who’s already done this column a favour in 2020 by landing the each way spoils at 66/1 in the ANA Inspiration and the 35-year-old is now available at three-figures, which I’ll take for a player who has 12 top-fives, including a pair of wins, from her 54 major championship starts. She’s also six times (in 13 tries) slept on a Friday or Saturday night knowing she’s bang in-contention at this event. Oh, and she’s a winner this year, at the Scottish Open.

Lewis lives 45 minutes from the Champions Club and is a member there. She told Golf Digest’s Keeley Levins: “I know the types of shots you’re going to have to hit, I know lines off tees, I know that kind of stuff. It’s going to make the practice so much easier. I can just work on my game and not have to worry so much about the golf course. Usually, a US Open is a crash course. You’re trying to learn as much as you can in three days.”

With her class, major form this year, and that insider knowledge I’ll happily take three figures.

Like Lewis, CHEYENNE KNIGHT hails from Houston and, whilst she’s not a member at the host, she frequently played there as a junior and told the Houston Chronicle that both courses will test the field. “You can’t ignore Jackrabbit,’’ she said. “Even though you play it just one day, it’s very different. It’s very tight, the greens are very small and undulated with a lot of false sides.”

She also revealed a key element of the main test – big putting surfaces. “You can’t keep leaving yourself 70-, 80-foot putts because that puts a lot of stress on you,’’ she said. “There are a lot of slopes and having a tap-in for par from isn’t really realistic.”

There’s no getting away from the fact that the 23-year-old is in new competitive, if not geographical, territory: it’s her championship debut and just a sixth start in the majors. But she has form when it comes to thriving on home soil. Four years ago she made her professional tour debut in Texas, finishing T29th after spending much of the week inside the top 20, last October she completed a maiden LPGA win in Texas, she was second in the minor tour Texas Open in May, and a creditable T25th when defending her title last week. Her big price is worth chancing.

Final selection might be a case of hoping for lightning to strike twice because 18 months ago Hinako Shibuno headed to the Women’s Open with stunning form on the JLPGA which went widely ignored and she scurried to an extraordinary win. Can AYOKA FURUE emulate that feat?

The 20-year-old has jumped into the world’s top 50 this year off the back of some sensational returns on her home circuit. Two wins and three second places in the 12 months from October last year was good enough but last month she put her foot to the floor, claiming two wins and another second in a three-week spell. It’s actually better form that Shibuno used to fuel her leap into the major winner category and I’m happy to side with her on that basis.

Posted at 2050 GMT on 07/12/20

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