Free golf betting tips: Ryder Cup specials, pairings predictions and player points

Ryder Cup tips: Opening tee shots

2pts Sergio Garcia to hit opening Europe tee-shot at 6/1 (bet365)

1pt Tommy Fleetwood to hit opening Europe tee-shot at 10/1 (bet365)

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In the debate as to whether or not Justin Rose ought to have been selected, his experience in the first group on the first tee was quite rightly overlooked. Nevertheless, that's where Rose was in 2014, 2016 and 2018, and in his absence Padraig Harrington is forced to mix things up at Whistling Straits.

Many will take the view that sending the world number one out first would be a statement of intent, while increasing the prospect of blue on the board at the earliest opportunity. Jon Rahm was alongside Rose in Paris, too, so he's been there and done it. There's no doubt he would be an excellent choice to feature in that first foursome.

If not Rahm, then I suspect it will be Rory McIlroy. He was out first in the morning foursomes at Medinah, delivering a point alongside Graeme McDowell, and he was out first in the Saturday foursomes at Hazeltine when doing likewise with Thomas Pieters. This format, on US soil, represents a baptism of fire, and experience seems a must.

But while Rahm or Rory will surely be in the first group, I'm less certain either would hit the first shot. Holes two, five, six, 10 and 16 appear key when it comes to driver, two of them being par-fives and the other two potentially driveable par-fours. The make-up of the holes will shape the thinking of both sides and, if correct, the interpretation opens up an opportunity.

Assuming experience is relied upon by Padraig Harrington, who has kept reiterating that point throughout the build up, the field of potential winners should be quite small. McIlroy's partner may well be SERGIO GARCIA, with whom he practiced on Tuesday, while there's a growing feeling that Rahm could pair up with TOMMY FLEETWOOD, who was brilliant in this format three years ago.

• CLICK HERE for Paddy Power's opening tee-shot markets

It may be that Viktor Hovland (McIlroy) and Shane Lowry (Rahm) get the nod instead, but McIlroy has paired with Garcia in the past and a reprisal seems on the cards. As for Rahm, it may make sense to pair him with someone a little more experienced in the first session, as he is still seeking his first pairs point in the Ryder Cup.

Dutching these two makes for something in the region of a 33/10 chance but I'll weight stakes slightly in favour of the most successful player in Ryder Cup history. Certainly, Garcia and Fleetwood represent ideal candidates for the task of getting Europe's defence under way and there aren't many viable alternatives I can see, especially when factoring in media duties and practice groups.

For the USA, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth almost feels too obvious but when you've home advantage and are favourites, keeping things nice and simple is far from the worst policy.

These two generally played the anchor role in Paris though and it could well be that they're buried in the pack. That leaves two obvious alternatives: Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay; or Dustin Johnson and Collin Morikawa.

Three of these four are rookies, but Johnson would be better suited to teeing off on even-numbered holes. Besides, Stricker has six rookies in his team, and the statement of sending two of them out first might appeal. Cantlay and Schauffele were out second in three of their four Presidents Cup matches, but an upgrade is very possible.

The trouble is I can't find a way to split their tee-shots, and 5/2 combined isn't quite big enough. Ultimately that's a double on them being paired and also then going out first. Star Sports had them 9/4 to be paired on Monday, which was far too big, but there's enough doubt around where they might sit in the pecking order to admit defeat.

Ryder Cup tips: Player total points

5pts Bryson DeChambeau under 2.5 points at 8/13 (Paddy Power)

2pts Dustin Johnson over 2.5 points at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

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It's difficult to see a scenario in which BRYSON DECHAMBEAU plays four matches, virtually impossible to see him playing five, and if pushed I suspect many would agree that three is the most likely number. It may in fact be very simple: play him in fourballs, not in foursomes, and it's therefore worth backing under the 2.5 line with Paddy Power.

There is a slight worry that he proves particularly effective in the fourball format but even if things go to plan we should have the singles as a nice fall-back, and while he won't be 8/13 to lose his Sunday match, he might not be far off if the draw works in our favour.

The point of these prices though is to factor in all possible paths and I think the odds quoted dramatically overestimate the likelihood he plays four or more matches. Put it this way: if we knew three was his maximum, which it may well prove to be, then 8/13 that he manages no more than two points would look a steal, with stakes refunded if he does earn exactly 2.5.

• CLICK HERE for Paddy Power's total player points markets

Much has changed since DeChambeau went 0-3-0 in Paris, but not enough to suddenly expect a massive contribution. Remember, he's subsequently played in a Presidents Cup and managed just half a point from two matches. His popularity among the side has probably diminished and he's done plenty to give Steve Stricker every excuse to use him sparingly.

Then we have the 2016 Ryder Cup as a potentially useful form guide. By that I mean that the difference in quality between the sides was similar, and I expect a similar outcome, that is to say a convincing win for the home side. But with no weak links in that team, it's worth noting that nine of the 12 failed to reach three points individually. Only Patrick Reed managed three and a half.

Ultimately, DeChambeau's maximum possible return could well be three points. Anything less than two and a half at 8/13? An absolute steal for those who don't mind betting at odds-on.

By contrast, DUSTIN JOHNSON seems good value to be one of the handful to reach three points and is a bet at 13/8.

Johnson played all five sessions in Paris and while only registering a point, a similar role around a far more suitable course would make this an achievable target. The fact he boasts such a fine singles record (3-1-0) means we can be fairly confident of a return if he can muster two points across the first two days, and suggestions he'll play the opening match alongside Collin Morikawa are encouraging.

It's true that his overall Ryder Cup record isn't especially good (7-9-0) but he's been on three beaten sides in four attempts and was chronically underused at Medinah in 2012, where he stood tall as others crumpled on Sunday. Johnson registered three points there and can do the same at a course which we know brings out the best in him.

• CLICK HERE to back Johnson to score three or more points with Sky Bet

Ryder Cup tips: Bryson DeChambeau's partner

1pt Scottie Scheffler to be Bryson DeChambeau's first partner at 9/2 (William Hill)

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Fair play to Star Sports for offering these markets for most players early in the week. Some of their assessments were absolutely gobsmacking but it was refreshing to see markets based on an opinion, which you can agree or disagree with. Of course, bookmakers can offer these markets and take measures to protect themselves from being turned over, but by all accounts they laid a bet or two.

They've still got a few interesting ones listed, such as Collin Morikawa (3/1 from 5/1) to be Dustin Johnson's first session partner, and Tommy Fleetwood (7/1) to get a run out with Rahm. Indeed Rahm's market is fascinating as the three he's practicing with as I type, Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton (20/1) and Shane Lowry (12/1 from 25s), are all big prices. Combined they are 3/1 and while Tuesday's practice groups may not tell us everything, Fleetwood and Lowry in particular appear likely options.

Both appeal at the prices for those able and keen to get involved, although the gift that was 9/4 Cantlay-Schauffele has been taken away.

William Hill have dipped their toe into the water with a market on Bryson DeChambeau's first partner, whenever he makes his entrance. That's a vital and distinguishing clause, because I can't see him featuring on Friday morning, and come the afternoon those who backed SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER will hopefully be paid out.

Scheffler is one of those six US rookies and seems likely to be made to wait. Some would say he was the 12th man on the list, i.e. the wildcard whose position in the side was most open to question, and given a foursomes start it makes perfect sense to introduce him in the second session.

He played with DeChambeau at the US Open this summer and there have been murmurings for a little while that they might go together. Certainly he makes more appeal than joint-favourite Morikawa, with Tony Finau a potential alternative at almost twice the price. But when Tuesday's practice groups emerged, DeChambeau and Scheffler were, as expected, in the same fourball. They might well be again on Friday.

Posted at 1430 BST on 21/09/21

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