European Tour: Andalucia Masters in-play preview ahead of final round

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2pts e.w. Sami Valimaki at 11/1 (1/5 1,2,3)

The wind has blown all week at Valderrama and made a difficult course closer to impossible, so much so that we enter Sunday's final round with only the one player under-par – American John Catlin.

Many players have been totally blown off course and with danger lurking around every corner it’s hardly a surprise, though some will be shocked by the one man who has almost tamed the beast. Catlin's most headline-making act on the European Tour has been to burst its coronavirus bubble, and he would be a surprise champion at this historic golf course.

However, with bogeys at his final two holes on Saturday he has opened the door a little for the chasing pack. At one stage in round three he led by five, with just a couple of players within seven. Now there are 15 players inside the latter bracket - the question is how far do you go back when looking for the winner?

The course has been used in the last four years on the European Tour and up with the pace has always been the secret to lifting the trophy. Christiaan Bezuidenhout was five clear last year and went on to win by six. Prior to that Sergio Garcia won two on the spin, both times maintaining his advantage. Even Andrew Johnston sat in second and only one behind the lead when he triumphed in the Open de Espana.

There have only been two three-under par rounds of 68 all week, nothing better, and even if Catlin shoots over-par I really can’t see the winner coming from any lower than fifth place if previous final rounds here are any kind of guide. Although the wind is set to blow again, gusts may not be quite as high but that won’t mean it will be much easier with baked greens playing just as fast. It's just not a course for those playing catch-up so while the leader may be a relative unknown, he's one of a small handful of likely champions.

Catlin seemed in total control of his game apart from the supposedly easier par-fives on the back nine, where he dropped a shot on each and was fortunate it wasn't worse. The second of those left him a little flustered as he made a tentative bogey at the last and the strength of his grip on the tournament clearly diminished.

Clearly we can't write him off as he is a four-time winner on the Asian Tour, a two-time winner on the Asian Development Tour, and has been the best player thus far. Four of those wins he led or co-led through three rounds and while this is a taller order I don’t think he will back down.

You can guarantee Martin Kaymer, who sits in solo second, won’t disappear off the leaderboard either. He seems to have been boosted by playing former Ryder Cup venues last week and this and is plainly at home on the European Tour. He made just one bogey on Saturday and his up-and-down at the last is a good sign.

However he couldn’t get the job done last week when let down by his chipping around the greens and that trait has been in evidence again this week. Missing greens around here is inevitable and with the extra pressure of playing for a trophy having not won one in six years, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fluff his lines as favourite again.

Playing in the final three-ball with these two players is Lorenzo Gagli, who vaulted into contention courtesy of a hole-in-one at the 12th. This will be his 170th European Tour start and he is yet to hoist a trophy, while he only has one win in 138 Challenge Tour starts, so I wouldn’t like to take a single-figure price about him breaking his duck at the top level for all he's played some of the best golf of his career in 2020.

Readers of Ben Coley’s Monday column will already be on Jamie Donaldson at 100/1 and will be hoping he stays around the top of the leaderboard. He holed some clutch putts in round three but to my mind he is making far too many bogeys to actually lift the trophy, although he will be inspired by previous course antics having kept his card here a couple of years back.

All four are respected but the standout candidate and one that interests me the most still at the prices is young Finn SAMI VALIMAKI, who was one of my pre-tournament picks at 66/1 and remains of interest at double-figure prices.

As in other starts this year he has begun slowly but moved through the field which is no great surprise as he is learning new courses. When he won in Oman he climbed from 101st after the first round, while in Wales he was 73rd after his first go at Celtic Manor, climbed to 35th, and ended the week in sixth.

He put that experience of the 2020 Course to use a week later, doing best of those in the final group only to have his pocket picked somewhat by Romain Langasque. Along with his efforts the previous week and in Oman, it was further evidence that he's hard to shake off and this is a quality young player with a big future, and none of the scar tissue of some of his Sunday rivals.

This week he has improved his position through every round from 87th after day one, and has fired a pair of 69s including going bogey-free in the third round. Another one of those and the Finn, who won four times on the Pro Golf Tour last year before surviving Q School, could well emulate Rasmus Hojgaard and collect his second title in a brilliant if fragmented rookie season.

Posted at 1935 BST on 05/09/20

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