European Tour: Scottish Open in-play betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

3pts win Tommy Fleetwood at 9/4

0.5pt e.w. Andy Sullivan at 25/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4)

2pts Andy Sullivan to finish in the top 10 at 11/10

Those that caught on to a strong late-early bias through the first two rounds of the Scottish Open were proven more than correct. Indeed, all ten players on the first page of the leaderboard on Friday night may not have been ultra-low during their second round but having taken advantage of much easier conditions on Thursday afternoon, looked to be in pole position in an event that isn't opposed to throwing in a winner from off the pace.

To take revenge on those that benefitted, the later conditions turned almost unplayable on Saturday though Ian Poulter said during the third round that it is nice to see players having to battle a golf course for once - clearly he hadn't seen recent events at Valderrama or Galgorm Castle!

The weather forecast is predicting that same sort of mental challenge seen in Spain and Northern Ireland throughout the final round, with the added complication of driving rain which caused problems throughout the third round. It is doubtful that such poor weather will continue through all of Sunday but it looks as if the wind will be ever-present and keeping a position was more important than creating a score.

Robert Rock, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood - the very mention of all three 'old' men in contention gives notice of the skill set required here over the weekend. Looking over event history, driving accuracy hasn't been the most obvious of talents required by a winner but, with the event moved to October from the dizzy heights of Summer, the rough is now getting very wet and wispy. Furthermore the greens are getting more receptive with less spin, and those finding the short stuff and with the ability to avoid scrambling too much are surely the most advantaged now. This is now a proper national Open.

Wade Ormsby is demonstrating the advantage of experience over power as he held firm while compatriot Lucas Herbert - the halfway leader - gave way in a round which will serve him well in future. Ormsby may well have missed his last six cuts in Scotland and his last three cuts on the European Tour, but he is top-10 in accuracy off the tee this week and that seems to be telling.

There is little in his record to suggest he should be taking to this but he is clearly loving conditions, holed confident par saves on his last two holes and while he may be over-achieving cannot be left out of calculations given his accuracy and quality short-game. How he performs under pressure if this weather continues is anyone's guess but the 40-year old is potentially overpriced in the market given the names up front and as a wizened player from the Antipodes will not mind any gusts off the North Sea.

In contrast and never overlooked with the bookmakers, the highest ranked player in the field, TOMMY FLEETWOOD, is back in with a favourite's chance despite not being near his best - and he's going to be hard to beat.

Fleetwood looked like drifting out of this after 13 holes when a couple of bogeys dropped him six off the pace, but in typical fashion he fought back with two late birdies to finish in the clubhouse just three back, which by the end of the day had become two. That two-under 69, courtesy of an exceptional birdie at the last, was the lowest score among the later starters and while he hasn't been at his imperious best recently, his Portugal third despite putting poorly again confirmed how hard he is to shift in this company.

Continuing to find greens in regulation and with a cracking record in both bad weather and tough conditions, he was smiling when saying he loved playing in that weather and basically to stop moaning given the money they play for. What is there not to like? At the end of play he clearly looks the one to beat and is a rock-solid selection despite the relatively short price. I can only see him shortening throughout play and if anyone does beat him, they may well be able to call themselves champion.

I doubt Robert Rock donned the flat cap to impersonate the recent major winner Bryson Dechambeau but he has been quite brilliant this week from tee to green having dropped just one shot in his first 46 holes with these conditions negating any lack of length. A delight to watch in Open conditions, he was the outstanding player of the later tee times and his two-over was infinitely better than the figures.

However, the mind turns back a week to the Irish Open when he blew a promising halfway position with a third-round 78. Add that to a similar blowout after the third round in that same event last year and in Oman and the case for victory is weakened. Unfortunately, as much as it would be fantastic to see him win for the first time in eight years, there is too much evidence against it.

Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter played together for the third day running and, despite them both getting bogged down late, the latter looked far more comfortable.

Westy was going well, finding the short stuff through his opening few but once the tee shots started drifting off line he was in trouble. He is playing very well in top events, with a 10th at Valderrama followed by a 13th at the US Open to follow an early-season win in Abu Dhabi, and he will no doubt play better on Sunday, but I'm not sure he is relishing this as much as a couple of his rivals. That six-bogey back-nine has surely done for his chance.

Fellow Ryder Cup star Poulter continues to play well enough to keep his place in the world's top 60 or so but is clearly aware that a win at this prestigious event would give him all sorts of privileges. He was, quite frankly, superb throughout most of the third round, taking just 15 putts through the first 13 holes and seeming to handle it all far better than his two-ball opponent.

He hasn't lost any of that infamous grit and with those top-three finishes in The Open behind him, looks made for this. I think you can red-line a lot of the back nine and his four-over 39 is not a reflection of his play or attitude. His demeanour was generally a delight and he is expected to be fighting back hard after a short missed putt at the last cost him a place in the final group.

Suddenly though there's a handful of potential champions where for a while it looked down to four or five, and it could well be that recent Hanbury Manor star ANDY SULLIVAN can go in again at around the 25/1 mark.

Top-10 in finding greens this week, Sullivan's biggest win as an amateur came in Scotland and whilst that was in entirely different conditions, he certainly has shown a liking for the country with three top-12 finishes including at Dundonald and St Andrews - both links courses - and a top-30 here last year boosts his claims despite that being held in a tad more sunshine.

Having had three good years at Valderrama, the missed cut was a surprise though it was on the number, and he was not going to be suited by a trip to Winged Foot. Consistently finding greens (led the tee-to-green stats through August) he is another that can fire at these pins.

Given he is amongst a few that would not have expected to have risen 20-plus places after they finished, he will feel buoyed that he is only four behind and he is perfectly placed to post a score from the chasing pack. He's worth backing outright as one of the interesting each-way alternatives to Fleetwood, but can justify faith for a top-10 finish regardless.

Future Open winner Robert MacIntyre (The Open, or the Irish, or the Scottish, even the Welsh... mark my words!) is suddenly in with a chance along with Adri Arnaus, not generally a good putter but one who made a move before watching others suffer, but the other name of interest is Gavin Green.

We have been paid out a couple of times with the 26-year-old Malaysian so far this year and it is his final-day efforts that once again catch the eye after an excellent third round.

In these conditions it is unclear what recent form means but an 11th and eighth at Celtic Manor preceded an opening 68 at The Belfry before an eventual missed cut. I have no worries about the latest form a few weeks ago as in his last ten completed events, Green has scored over 70 just once on a Sunday with a handful in the mid-60s.

Improving during the week with rounds of 70, 71 and 67, he is fancied to attack the course again whatever the weather. With two eagles already this week, he may relish the softer greens once more and is fancied to outscore the enigma that is Victor Dubuisson, who seems far less likely to back up.

In contrast to his rival, the Frenchman has only broken 70 once on payday in his last ten completed events, with scores of 72, 73 and 74 amongst them. Green leads seven to four in lifetime head-to-head final round scores but crucially those seven are the most recent and contribute to a seven-one lead in the last eight match-ups.

Only one of these has a game in an upward trajectory and if you can get a mythical two-ball priced up, siding with Green at a shade of odds-on would be strongly recommended. Alas, Sullivan completes the group with tee-times brought forward a shade, and he's a worthy favourite.

Posted at 1930 BST on 03/10/20

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