Farmers Insurance Open PGA Tour betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Tony Finau at 30/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Joaquin Niemann at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Cameron Champ at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Keegan Bradley at 90/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Cameron Davis at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Brandon Hagy at 500/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

It's been a long, challenging, at times immensely frustrating and yet still lucrative five years since Rory McIlroy last topped the world rankings. This week at Torrey Pines, he has the chance to take top spot back from Brooks Koepka, the first of just two remaining steps for a player stuck on four major championships to complete a return to his best.

The Farmers Insurance Open, played across the South and North courses at Torrey Pines, is a sensible place for McIlroy to return. Fifty-four holes will be played on the South, once again the longest layout on the PGA Tour at an extended 7,765 yards, and history tells us two things about this event: it tends to be dominated by the big-hitters, and it tends to be won by somebody who is world-class.

That was true when Justin Rose waltzed to victory here 12 months ago, achieving a rare feat in breaking 70 every day, and it was true when Jason Day won the title twice, and when Jon Rahm broke through in sensational fashion at the start of 2017. It was true when Nick Watney and when Bubba Watson won, and it was true from the first to the seventh of Tiger Woods' titles. John Daly, Phil Mickelson, Davis Love... this is the domain of the most powerful players around.

There are and always will be exceptions, such as Brandt Snedeker and his opportunism, but year after year the grip which the longer hitters have on this event tightens. In 2019, Rose was followed home by Adam Scott, with Hideki Matsuyama, Day, McIlroy and Rahm close behind, and you'll find a similarly top-heavy feel to the leaderboards of 2018 and 2017, too.

So, McIlroy has every chance, and I'm becoming less inclined to worry about absences - even if he had tuned up in the Tournament of Champions ahead of his debut 12 months ago. After all, Lee Westwood managed to produce his best performance in about a decade, at the age of 46, despite also being off since November. There's no doubt some players do lack for sharpness but McIlroy tends not to be one of them.

Rahm is a contender, too - the realities of marriage ought to have hit him by now after a relatively low-key return in Hawaii - and Woods was magnificent at the Presidents Cup. These are three of the best five players in the sport, in fact they might be three of the best four, and they create a strong axis at the head of this market, so strong that you begin to wonder just how many of the seven or eight places quoted by bookmakers are actually available here.

There is a way in, though, and it's to stick only to powerful, high-ball hitters - we ought to be able to rely on them dominating once more, and that means a field of 156 players can soon be whittled down, leaving perhaps a dozen realistic title contenders and another 20 or so who look interesting to at least hit the frame.

That's why I'm willing to back TONY FINAU, a player whose win strike-rate is so famously poor that he's usually the first name off the shortlist at short enough prices.

Nobody, surely, backed him at 13/2 in Hong Kong a fortnight ago, when placed, and I doubt many were on him as second-favourite in last week's event, but with eight places on offer and this being his strongest event on the calendar, prices in the region of 30/1 are worth taking.

Finau's record here is outstanding. He's played in five renewals and has five top-25 finishes, defying inexperience on debut and building on that since. He hit the frame in both 2017 and 2018, and he really should've done so last year but for a poor putting display - even by his standards - and just a so-so round on the North Course.

The popular American in fact led in strokes-gained tee-to-green last year, a further demonstration of how comfortable he is at Torrey Pines, and whereas that was his seasonal debut, this time he's cherry-ripe following finishes of fifth and 14th to begin the year.

Finau's putting stats from last week aren't especially strong, but remember only his third and fourth rounds were measured and it seemed as though he was rolling the ball particularly well during a second-round 62, telling reporters about a simple method which had helped to free him up on the greens.

Of course, it's difficult to argue that his failure to win a significant title can be put down solely to putting - there's clearly been an issue closing the door - but his attitude and his ability will carry him to victory soon enough, that seems certain.

Focusing in on events which put him at such an exaggerated advantage over most of the field makes sense, and as a player who has so often contended in majors it would make perfect sense were he to survive such a rigorous examination as this one.

Fairways are so hard to hit out here that players like Finau, who can launch wedges into hard, small greens, are much better equipped to cope with the challenge. He looks a serious contender and this is a chance to back him knowing a top-eight finish will keep us in front for the week.

It'll certainly be interesting to see if Finau builds on his performance at the Presidents Cup, his singles fightback against Matsuyama pivotal in earning victory for the United States, and JOAQUIN NIEMANN is another who looks set to use that event as a springboard.

Already this year, Niemann's team-mates Cameron Smith and Abraham Ancer have produced their best (joint in Ancer's case) PGA Tour performances, and the season-opening Tournament of Champions was dominated by those who had played tough, competitive golf for either the Internationals or the USA in mid-December.

Niemann's performance Down Under wasn't quite as significant, but he pulled off a remarkable escape at the final hole to salvage half a point in a four-ball match and when he made a flying start to the year at Kapalua, he talked about the impact the event had already had as he became its youngest ever participant.

"The Presidents Cup was one of my best experiences since I turned pro. It was an unbelievable week," the Chilean told reporters. "I shared a lot of moments with the best players in the world.

"It just gave me a lot of confidence knowing that I’m able to beat them if I play good."

After hitting the frame at the Tournament of Champions, faring best of a strong group of debutants, Niemann's poor putting and lack of Waialae experience saw him finish down the field at the Sony Open. Still, he drove the ball superbly and his iron play was also sharp, and with the putter having become reliable over the last year I don't expect it'll hold him back for long.

Here at Torrey Pines, where he won the World Junior Golf Championship as an amateur in 2015, followed up with an eight-shot romp in 2016, and then opened with an eight-birdie 66 at the North Course on his first Farmers start, Niemann's long-game can power a big week as he closes in on places in the WGC-Mexico Championship and the US Open.

Again, Smith's victory in Hawaii showed us what sitting just outside the top 50 can do for a player, and in a field as strong as this there are a handful who have the chance to book spots in all of the majors and WGCs, while of course earning Ryder Cup and Olympics points.

One such example is KEEGAN BRADLEY, who thrived representing the USA in the early part of the last decade and won't have given up hope of doing so again.

He's one of the best drivers on the circuit, and one of the highest hitters, so it makes sense that the former PGA champion has enjoyed plenty of success at Torrey Pines, hitting the frame in both 2017 and 2018 before a perfectly solid 35th a year ago when just not quite at his best from tee-to-green.

Interestingly, he's actually gained strokes with the putter here on six of his nine visits, only twice putting to a level which would be concerning, and the greens clearly suit. Perhaps it's the poa annua, which makes up part of the greens on which he putted so well in the Travelers last summer, but whatever the case he improves from his baseline here.

Bradley also putted nicely for 12th place in the Sony Open last time, his return to action after two months away, and that was his best finish in eight starts in the event. No wonder he described himself as 'pretty pumped' as he made an excellent start to 2020.

At 53 in the world, Bradley is in a position similar to when he won the BMW Championship in 2018, when a clutch of big-hitting Torrey Pines fans were right behind. Having also won at the fearsomely long Firestone, another of Woods' favourite playgrounds, this is a great venue for him to relaunch his career again.

Matt Wolff and Ben An are respected along with Bud Cauley and Harris English, familiar names on these pages of late, but CAMERON CHAMP is considered better value than all of them at 80/1.

This Californian won in his home state late last year, doubling his PGA Tour tally, and there have been signs since that he's about to add consistency to his prodigious hitting and obvious talent.

Since missing the cut in the Shriners, Champ has finished 23rd, 33rd, eighth, 27th, 14th and 21st, and this is the first time since that he'll be able to unleash the full force of his driver - the club that powered wins in the Sanderson Farms and the Safeway Open.

He's also been putting nicely, and he's clearly in a much better place than when missing the cut without disgracing himself on his tournament debut a year ago.

Inexperience of the courses is a slight concern, a comment which also applies to Niemann, but increasingly youngsters across the world are proving capable of defying such historical issues - and in Niemann and Champ, we've two of the very best around.

CAMERON DAVIS isn't quite up there with them just yet but he's clearly a massive talent in his own right and can go well at 200/1.

The Australian has started the year with finishes of ninth and 23rd, following third place to sign off 2019, so there are plenty of signs that he too is ready to take the next step in his career and compete on the PGA Tour.

He's been first and third in driving distance in two starts so far, and ranks second in one of the key metrics which reveals who hits the ball highest, so again his game looks ideal for Torrey Pines where the biggest hitters around are expected to dominate.

Davis has played here twice before, making both cuts - the first when a Korn Ferry Tour member - and returns with his game firing on all cylinders, two dropped shots at the 16th and 17th holes on Sunday costing him a few spots on the leaderboard.

Davis might not be ready to win an event like this, but then none of us would've considered him ready to win an Australian Open yet he did that, beating some of the best of his compatriots, a couple of years ago, and he wasted no time winning on the Korn Ferry Tour, either.

Finally, I can't resist a very small play on 500/1 shot BRANDON HAGY, who is preferred to Maverick McNealy at the prices.

Hagy has made a slow start to the season, but he shot 64 in the second round of the RSM Classic to hint at better to come, and last week carded another second-round stunner with a brilliant 63.

Among the most powerful players around, he becomes of extra interest here owing to the fact his best ever PGA Tour finish was a top-five at Glen Abbey, former home of the RBC Canadian Open.

Although considerably easier than Torrey Pines, that course had fairways that were hard to hit and therefore enabled big-hitters to blast away knowing they wouldn't be overly punished for their waywardness.

It also favoured players who could drop the ball softly from way up in the sky, and that's why the crossover between the two is so strong - names like Robert Garrigus, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland, Martin Laird, Bradley and Finau tying them together as well as the more obvious Dustin Johnson and, for different reasons, Snedeker.

With Hagy having opened with a round of 66 in this last year, and shown some better signs of late, perhaps this underachiever can confirm once and for all that where Torrey Pines is concerned, it really is all about the bombers.

Posted at 1215 GMT on 21/01/20

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