The strongest field of the year lines up at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational, where Ben Coley has three first-round leader fancies.
Golf betting tips: Genesis Invitational
1pt e.w. Scottie Scheffler to lead after round one at 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman to lead after round one at 95/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Chez Reavie to lead after round one at 95/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt Chez Reavie to finish in the top 20 at 6/1 (General)
Logic would dictate that an early start is especially important on poa annua greens, but that hasn't really been the case at Riviera over the years. In fact, as temperatures rise on the outskirts of LA, and with a slightly smaller-than-usual field, playing in the afternoon has often been advantageous - both first-round 63s over the last five years came late in the day.
Overall the split is 6-5 in favour of the AM wave since Dustin Johnson's opening 66 in 2014, and with a calm and sunny day forecast there's no real concern about playing the first-round leader market before the draw is made. If anything, the real benefit lies in teeing off at the 10th - the score reads 8-3 in favour of a back-nine start - but as the first is a much less demanding opener, I'm not sure this particular statistic carries real worth.
My focus is on players who've shown that they can score around this fearsome par 71. There have been two players to have held the lead more than once over the last decade, and as touched upon in the outright preview, Riviera is a course which throws up similar leaderboards year after year.
At the prices, SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER is my strongest fancy as he's shown a real streakiness since arriving on the PGA Tour and has produced so much of his best golf on Thursdays.
Scheffler averaged more than half a shot lower over the first two rounds than the second two during his first season on the circuit, and he's continuing that trend in 2021. Right now, he's ticking along at fully a shot lower in the first round versus rounds two and three, and in an event where breakout winners are rare this is the best way to play him.
Last time he started strongly for a top-10 finish in Phoenix, prior to which he shot 65-79 to miss the cut by one at Torrey Pines, and in 31 starts as a PGA Tour member has a win (Bermuda) and six further places in the first-round leader market.
In terms of course form and experience, he failed to advance to the knockout stage of the US Amateur here in 2017, but note that wasn't because of how he played this course. Scheffler shot a tidy 69 at the Riv, instead paying the price for shooting 75 at Bel-Air Country Club next door. A year later he won the one-round Collegiate Showcase to earn a spot in this field and while that alone doesn't tell us much, it does mean he has a total of eight competitive Riviera rounds under his belt.
Unsurprisingly, the pick of them was his first round last year, a 69 which had him just outside the top 10. Having since contended for a major, and with his form on arrival looking stronger, he is capable of improving on that by the three or four shots we'll likely need for the win.
Quite rightly, there's much talk about Augusta comparisons here and after he came charging through the field at Pebble Beach on Sunday, I can't resist speculating that CHARLEY HOFFMAN could have a say early on to underline those comparisons yet again.
Hoffman led after the first round of the Masters in 2017, and he has a flawless record there. His record at Riviera is strong, too, and he was just one shot off the lead here in 2014 thanks to an opening 67. Crucially, this habitual fast starter has tended to drop a big hint prior to doing so, as was the case at Augusta, and Sunday's finishing flourish up the coast may therefore prove telling.
The 44-year-old appears to have his long-game back in a good place, and his form is beginning to look solid for all there were some injury issues in January. Seemingly healthy again after missing the cut by one in Phoenix before taking seventh at Pebble Beach, he might be ready to secure his second first-round lead of the season.
Notably, he said when fourth here in 2017 that he prefers Riviera when it plays pretty firm, which should be the case this week for all that kikuyu doesn't tend to roll out all that much regardless. The Californian is well worth chancing in some way even if it's probably beyond him to win his fifth PGA Tour title in this company.
Finally, although CHEZ REAVIE isn't as explosive a scorer, he was second after the first round here in 2016 and has shot 66, 75, 68, 69 and 69 in his last five tournament openers. Anything sub-70 comes with place prospects with 67 a realistic target for an each-way return and he's capable of getting in the shake-up again.
Reavie has a very good record in California and it wasn't all that surprising to see him return to form last week, leading the field in strokes-gained approach en route to a top-20 finish. Interestingly, when he produced a similar tee-to-green display in the 2019 US Open, also at Pebble Beach, he carried that confidence to victory a week later, and I was tempted to speculate that he might repeat the trick and win here at 150/1.
Instead, I'll take a chance that he can start this week as he finished the last one, splitting stakes with a top-20 finish play at around 6/1. Reavie has bagged two top-10s in his last five starts at Riviera and, crucially, tends to improve on poa annua greens. A third is as big as 16/1 in places, but this field is particularly deep and we should probably opt for the more cautious route.
With his long-game evidently back in good shape though he ought to enjoy a good week, hopefully from the very start.
Posted at 1600 GMT on 16/02/21
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