Farmers Insurance Open preview: Free golf betting tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

2pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay at 28/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Emiliano Grillo at 50/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Kevin Tway at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jimmy Walker at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jhonattan Vegas at 175/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

It's not just the reappearance of Tiger Woods which makes this week's Farmers Insurance Open feel like a gear change, after the relatively gentle reintroduction of PGA Tour golf provided by the Hawaii swing and a Desert Classic whose champion was superbly impressive but suitably baffling.

Here, at Torrey Pines, things get serious and the depth on show is revealed by Woods' price of 16/1. Tiger has won this event seven times, the most recent of his titles coming during a five-win 2013 campaign, and in that respect it's an ideal place to begin the next step in his rehabilitation, which he won't consider complete until capturing that elusive 15th major title.

The 14th major, of course, came at Torrey Pines' South Course back in 2008, and it's on this layout that 54 of the 72 holes will be played, with the field also gifted the relative calm of the easier North Course for one of the opening two rounds.

Both favour big-hitters, particularly the South, and this no-holds-barred major venue tends to produce a noteworthy champion. When Jon Rahm won here in 2017, he was the first to do so on his debut in the event since Arnold Palmer in 1957, and the first to make it his first PGA Tour title since Jay Don Blake in 1991. Looking back through recent history and even the surprise winners - Scott Stallings and Ben Crane - had proven themselves capable elsewhere before downing some bigger names.

Course specialists are common, Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker joining the likes of Tiger and Phil Mickelson as multiple winners, Stallings having also been second and the likes of KJ Choi and Luke Donald both having finished runner-up on more than one occasion.

Choi and Donald offer hope to the shorter hitter, as have the likes of Snedeker and CT Pan, but at over 7,700 yards the South Course is best attacked with long drives. As for the North, it may be shorter and is undoubtedly easier, but fairways are so hard to hit for everyone that it's still advantageous to be as far down as possible, especially when trying to find what are small greens.

Rahm will start favourite and there are fewer doubts surrounding the Spaniard than most of those close to him. Woods hasn't been seen in competitive action since the Hero World Challenge, where he was extremely laboured, Justin Rose was below best with new equipment last week, Rory McIlroy hasn't played the event before and Rickie Fowler has a new golf ball in the bag for 2019.

Xander Schauffele is a Californian - just like 15 of the last 30 winners here, albeit those figures are skewed by Woods - and has the game for the course, but he's teeing it up with Tiger over the first two rounds and that might just be a small negative. Tony Finau, meanwhile, is probably short enough given his strike-rate, a comment which may also apply to Marc Leishman, Gary Woodland and Charles Howell.

That leaves three towards the front of the betting who are interesting against the favourite. Day, for starters, has twice won here and also finished second; he's not been far from his best since last winning and a pipe-opener in the Tournament of Champions will have done him good. At 14/1, he's perfectly tempting.

Then there's Jordan Spieth, into 33/1 from 40s despite missing the cut on his return to action in the Sony Open. Newsflash: you should always, always, always consider Spieth at 33/1 to win any golf tournament, anywhere, and that's exactly what I did. Ultimately, his fightback in Hawaii wasn't quite enough and I fear this course and these greens will expose the fact that there's still more work to do.

Finally there's Patrick Cantlay, who continues to strike the ball beautifully and perform well just about everywhere he tees up.

As a Californian, this is a home game for the world-class 26-year-old and I liked his return to action last week, in an event which doesn't necessarily play to his strengths. Cantlay was nevertheless right on the heels of the leaders with a round to play and while no doubt frustrated not to perform better on Sunday, it was ultimately a positive performance and one which keeps him just slightly off the radar.

So does his course form, which shows a missed cut six years ago and a humdrum effort last year, and that's fine by me. Cantlay is in fact ideally suited to long, demanding layouts like the South and any event where par is a good score fits nicely. He's shown as much elsewhere, including when fourth at both Riviera and Muirfield Village, and his narrow second at the Valspar is another piece of form which correlates well with this challenge.

Ultimately, he made a slow start to 2018, adjusting as he was to having reset goals following an exhausting 2017 which culminated in a first PGA Tour title, one which came at the end of a seriously bumpy road. I can forgive him needing three starts to get moving but I don't expect that to be the case this time, with signs from the Desert Classic entirely positive.

Cantlay's approach play was outstanding last week, his putting less so, but a return to poa annua greens will suit and he can show the benefits of having prepared well by doubling his PGA Tour tally, something he's very keen to do before major season begins.

Next on my list is Kevin Tway, who could make it a family double after father Bob won this event back in 1986.

The junior version has made the cut in all three starts here in San Diego and also has experience of Torrey Pines from the 2008 US Open, which he qualified for despite being an amateur in the very early stages of his college career.

It's those performances in the Farmers which really catch the eye, because they suggest he can make a serious impact now returning a PGA Tour winner after his success last autumn in the Safeway Open.

Tway played here in 2014, his rookie season, and finished an admirable 37th. He'd missed both previous cuts and would go on to miss five more thereafter in an awful start to a fairly miserable year. The fact he managed to stay competitive speaks to a fondness for Torrey Pines.

It took until 2017 for him to earn a return, and again he'd started the season MC-MC before finishing 41st, while last year he finished 69th in his sole previous start and played poorly after, yet went well in this to finish 35th despite a final-round 76.

So far, he's not even properly taken advantage of the North Course and if he can do so this time, this big-hitting, improving 30-year-old can get in the mix having started 2019 with 11th in the Tournament of Champions, before a narrow missed cut at the Sony Open.

Over in Hawaii, on a tight, short par 70, driver was taken out of Tway's hands and he lost strokes off the tee. Still, he managed to gain chunks with his approach shots and there's every chance that returned to a long par 72, where driver is a requirement rather than an option, he can put his advantage to use once more.

Tway has putted well here on all three starts and that victory in the Safeway means he's looking for a quickfire California double. This is a deeper field but on golf courses which suit he's more than capable of contending.

At a shorter price, I'm also drawn to the prospects of Emiliano Grillo.

As I've written when previewing this event in the past, as soon as you mention the World Junior Golf Championship it's likely that some will be inclined to tell you that it simply can't be worth anything, despite being held here at Torrey Pines.

Yet there is mounting evidence, not least two wins for World Junior champion Day and seven for Tiger, that this simply isn't true. Most notably, Andrew Buckle won the World Junior twice and almost caused a massive upset in this event as a professional, but truth be told there are various other instances together with players who have spoken of the benefits of having played here before.

Michael Kim would be an example of the latter. He went to Torrey Pines High School and practiced at the course after class, and when he returned as a professional spoke of how it was a huge advantage to have putted on these poa annua greens countless times in the past. Placing a value on the benefit is impossible, but I'd argue ignoring its potential is foolish.

Back to Grillo, who was a convincing winner of the World Junior here a decade ago having also been placed on a previous visit.

He's spent plenty of time in California since turning professional, too, so it's no surprise perhaps that his sole victory came in the same event as Tway, when it was known as the Frys.com Open.

In this event, he's progressed from a missed cut on debut to 33rd and then 12th, producing positive putting figures in two of those appearances, and having signed off 2018 in excellent form he made an eye-catching start to this year with 22nd in the Sony, shooting a third-round 63 for good measure.

Grillo is undoubtedly a disappointing player in many ways but in this Presidents Cup year, there's every chance he doubles his tally and when he does, it'll surely be on a course which rewards pure ball-striking and where it's possible to get away with an average putting week.

Sticking with that World Junior theme, Jhonattan Vegas is persevered with having been part of the staking plan at 60/1 last year.

The Venezuelan returns at three-times the price and that's despite some decent golf towards the end of last year before a solid enough four rounds at the Desert Classic last week.

Vegas was a regular in that junior event once upon a time and he's spoken of how much it's helped him compile an excellent course record, which shows a best of third but also finishes of 11th, 18th and 28th more recently.

"I just feel comfortable here," he said in 2015. "Simple as that. Going back to junior golf, playing Junior World here, I had success, I almost won here four years ago, so good memories coming back to Torrey Pines.

"I think it's a course that suits my game really well. Going back to junior golf, I had success here playing the Junior World and almost won here four years ago, so it's just a place that I feel comfortable and it suits my game really well."

On three occasions he's ranked inside the top 10 for strokes-gained tee-to-green at Torrey Pines and he's also entered the final round with a chance to win three times in eight starts, all of which helps build an interesting case for this powerful Texas resident.

His victories in the Canadian Open help draw a somewhat curious link with that event (the only comparison I can really make is that both courses involve hitting a lot of approaches from the rough) but he's also a very strong performer on poa annua, which is a definite positive.

Vegas is a bit like Stallings in that he's often very poor, but when he's on, he often wins. He's also reproduced when returning to courses where he's enjoyed success before and there's been enough in his play to suggest that he's not far off a big week under the right circumstances.

The first name on my shortlist this week was actually Jason Kokrak, a frustrating maiden who came closest at Riviera a couple of years ago and often plays well during this part of the season.

He's one of the most naturally powerful players around, hasn't missed a cut since the Open last summer and has one good piece of form in this event to his name, with his preparation this time arguably as sound as it has ever been.

Yet this is such a hard event for a maiden to win that I'm ruthlessly cutting him and Alex Prugh from the staking plan as a result, with Jimmy Walker preferred.

Before becoming a regular winner and eventually a major champion, Walker had been best known for producing a string of excellent performances on the west coast, notably at Riviera but also here.

He's certainly comfortable on poa annua and that's been in evidence at the Farmers where he's gained strokes on the greens on every visit bar a debut missed cut almost a decade ago.

Like Kokrak, he hasn't missed a cut since the Open so there are signs that he's coming back into some sort of form, and there was enough to like about four sub-70 rounds in the Sony Open on his first start of 2019.

Last year ended with eye-catching rounds at the CJ Cup and the CIMB Classic and having won at Pebble Beach and in the Frys.com Open, a return to California appears to come at a very nice time - especially as he's turned 40 since the Sony.

We often see players of all calibres improving for some sort of milestone, including hitting 40, and at a course where he's been inside the top eight four times in nine visits, that's enough to give this major champion the benefit of the doubt.

Others to mention include Adam Svensson, who led after round one at the Sony Open and carded four sub-70 rounds last week. This Canadian is a former winner of the Junior World Championship and calls Torrey Pines his favourite venue, though whether he can do what Rahm did and defy history is obviously open to some doubt.

Luke List was fifth entering the final round last year and this California resident will come good at some point, Brendan Steele has been excellent from tee-to-green at Torrey Pines of late and can improve on a low-key return along with Beau Hossler, while Cameron Davis did well here on an invite in 2018 after a nightmare journey and has since earned his PGA Tour membership.

With six, seven and even eight places on offer, my overall message would be that this might be an event packed with big names, but Torrey Pines is an unforgiving beast and many of them have questions to answer. Favouring those who've played already in 2019 as well as those who drive the ball well looks a decent policy and there's scope for a minor upset.

Posted at 1205 GMT on 22/01/19