With the PGA Tour soon to arrive in Florida after a stop-off for the elite in Mexico, Ben Coley picks out 10 players who could improve on an encouraging start to 2020.
Let's start with perhaps the most obvious, a player who has been on the fringes of contention in California and Arizona and who should feel particularly bullish when it comes to stepping up another level in the coming weeks.
Berger grew up learning to play golf in Florida, where he still lives, and where he almost sprang a 125/1 surprise in the 2015 Honda Classic only to have his pocket picked by Padraig Harrington. He's yet to match that runner-up finish and has sometimes disappointed, but there's been promise at Bay Hill (13th), Copperhead (11th) and Sawgrass (9th), and he remains most comfortable at PGA National where he enjoyed plenty of success as a junior.
Out at Hilton Head, South Carolina, he's made two cuts from two and started really well in last year's Heritage, and while Memphis is now later on the calendar his two victories at Southwind further confirm his love of bermuda greens and the unique conditions of playing in the south east.
With a decent book of Texas form also to his name, the next few months are littered with opportunities for this former Presidents Cup player to get back to where he feels he belongs, having contended for the 2018 US Open before injury hit. Now back to full health and with a new caddie on the bag, he felt like his game was close even before back-to-back top-10 finishes to sign off from the west coast swing.
At his best, Berger's iron play powered his climb to 18th in the world. It's taken a while to come round since he returned to the circuit, but it's been very strong once more in three of his four starts so far this year. The pieces are falling into place.
Love the Florida swing. First @TheHondaClassic and now a short drive up the state to @APinv #floridavibes
— Daniel Berger (@DanielBerger59) March 4, 2019
Here's a player who hasn't kicked on since winning last year's Honda Classic and then finishing sixth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but Mitchell has done plenty in recent weeks to suggest he's ready to return to form with the anniversary of his breakthrough looming.
He first caught the eye finishing 14th in the RSM Classic, which is the only event so far this season played in the south east, and that's encouraging in itself. But it's Mitchell's performances in Phoenix (14th) and at Pebble Beach (32nd) which really offer encouragement.
In Phoenix, he drove the ball brilliantly, while at Pebble Beach it was his iron play which fired and it was through his trademark long, accurate driving and laser approach shots that he won a high-class Honda Classic last March.
His iron play in particular went missing from summer onwards, but if he can build on some February promise there are reasons to be optimistic. Mitchell went to college in Georgia, where he now lives, and he's from Tennessee, and everything he's achieved so far this year is a bonus with more to come now playing closer to home.
The positives where List is concerned are similar to those of Mitchell, both generally going about things in a similar way and having the talent to win multiple times on the PGA Tour.
Mitchell is ahead of List in that regard, the latter among the best non-winners on the circuit, but there's plenty of time for him yet and he too has started to piece things together on the west coast.
List has a better than one-in-four top-10 strike-rate in Florida, he's well suited to Quail Hollow, and he even managed to scale back and play nicely at The Heritage when finishing third in 2018.
It's his record at Bay Hill and PGA West which really catches the eye, however, with a perfect slate of 17-7-10 at the former and two top-10 finishes - including second place - in the latter.
It may be that he's not quite ready to win one of these just yet, but don't be at all surprised if he improves on recent form to force his way into contention having shown flashes of promise lately, concluding with 30th at Riviera.
At the start of the year, the buzz golfer was Sungjae Im - and quite right, too. He'd just starred as a Presidents Cup debutant, on the back of a brilliant rookie season on the PGA Tour, and a breakthrough in the US seemed close.
Six weeks in and things have gone just a little quiet - evidenced by his starting price at Riviera, where he missed the cut - and yet, I think he's generally underlined why everyone should be excited about him. Im hasn't quite been at his best, but despite that he'd made every cut prior to last week and finished no worse than 36th, all the while hinting that he's close to putting four rounds together.
While he won in Oregon and the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour, Im's standout form at the higher level so far comes courtesy of third place at Bay Hill and fourth at Copperhead, while he went on to finish sixth at the Wyndham and second earlier this season at the Sanderson Farms Championship. All four of these efforts came on bermuda greens, and so far he's yet to fully convince when poa annua is the dominant feature.
That means he's set up nicely for the months ahead and while unlikely to quite live up to the expectations of some at Augusta, where even the best debutants tend to come unstuck at some stage, it's not difficult to see him gaining compensation for a close call at Bay Hill last year.
If I had to nominate one event, however, it would be the WGC-Match Play in Texas. Im really impressed with the way he took down Gary Woodland in the Presidents Cup, and his all-round game lends itself to grinding out wins as is necessary under the format. He ranked 11th in bogey average last season and 14th in bogey avoidance, a good pointer to those who won't give holes away cheaply, and would certainly rate a bad draw for whoever faces him in Austin.
A final point on the Match Play - Im also happens to be one of the iron men of the circuit, as demonstrated by the fact he played 35 events in 2020 plus the Presidents Cup. That might just mean he's better equipped than others for playing seven matches in five days and for all that he's not quite lived up to the hype so far this year, he's probably very close to doing so.
Reel it in 🎣
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERSChamp) March 15, 2019
The second ace of the week at #THEPLAYERS goes to Sungjae Im 👏pic.twitter.com/2kMnaOHwY2
When Burns burst on the scene by finishing sixth in the Barbasol Championship, and then added eighth place in the Honda Classic and 12th in the Valspar the following year, he appeared to have the world at his feet. Here was a decorated college golfer who hit the ball a heck of a long way and looked deadly on the greens - what could stop him climbing the rankings?
From there he went and won the Savannah Golf Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour to secure his full card on the PGA Tour, where he wasted no time in making an impression as he finished third in the Sanderson Farms on just his second start of the season. Cameron Champ was the winner that day, but there was every reason to be just excited about the person collecting bronze.
Burns hasn't quite kicked on, despite top-10 finishes in The Heritage and the 3M Open, and that's partly due to injury as well as the inconsistencies of youth. In fact, it was a broken ankle he suffered while messing around with a basketball which kept him out of action from July to September, and the rest of 2019 was a write-off as he worked his way back to full fitness at the end of a frustrating year.
Although there's not been all that much to shout about in 2020, Burns did remind us all what he's capable of when sixth in The AmEx before a very solid 23rd at Riviera, and he's exactly the sort of player to step up again and produce something even better over the coming months.
In time, Burns will likely prove comfortable all over the country - he already has top-10 finishes in Florida, Minnesota, Utah, South Carolina, Mississippi, Missouri, Alabama, and even Colombia. But the win came in Georgia, and this exciting LSU product, who now lives in Texas, is really capable of making that putter sing on his favoured bermuda greens.
He lacks the consistency of some of his contemporaries, players like Collin Morikawa who have made it look simple. And yet Burns has bags of talent, enough to put him right there behind Morikawa in what you might call the second wave of young talent. One day, he might graduate to the very top, and he can take another step along that road soon.
Never has Russell Knox landed the place money in California on the PGA Tour. In fact, he's only done so once in his career, when the 2011 Stonebrae Classic - a second-tier event - was reduced to 54 holes.
Only in Las Vegas, on bentgrass greens, has he really threatened to win out on this side of the country and this Jacksonville resident is far more effective once the Tour heads east.
With that in mind, finishes of 32-37-21-16-MC-MC to start the season are fine - the missed cuts came first in the multi-course pro-am at Pebble Beach, and then by a shot at Riviera. He's generally putted to a decent standard, and with his irons still firing it may be that all he needs is a return to the right course.
Gladly, it's are coming. Knox has been second and third at PGA National, he's never been worse than 24th in four tries at Colonial, he's been second, ninth, 11th and 18th at Harbour Town (he calls it his favourite PGA Tour course) and he's made all three cuts without yet contending at Bay Hill.
You can throw in Copperhead, the sort of layout which should suit, as one on which he could improve on previous visits. Knox paid the price for a misbehaving putter when 24th there last year and was 16th in 2018, so again it's a place which does play to his straight-hitting strengths.
In a Ryder Cup year, Knox needs to be winning tournaments to make any kind of impression on Padraig Harrington. For a while now, he's been on the fringes without really getting in the mix. The next three months will be vital for him and there are no excuses given the schedule.
Hit retweet if this is your favorite course on the @PGATOUR!#RBCHeritage pic.twitter.com/WPHflJ5gON
— RBC Heritage (@RBC_Heritage) November 13, 2019
Martin's victory in Las Vegas was curious for a number of reasons - not least the fact he'd shot 78-79 to finish last a week earlier, and had been in poor form for a while. It was also strange because he's generally been a better golfer away from the west coast, and that makes finishes such as 25th at Pebble Beach and 29th in The American Express much more encouraging than at first they might appear.
An old-fashioned golfer who gets by on being solid but unspectacular throughout the bag, this 32-year-old should find the challenges of courses like Harbour Town, Copperhead and Colonial much more to his liking than Torrey Pines, where he unsurprisingly missed the cut at the end of January.
Otherwise, his game has looked in good shape and that's supported by Chesson Hadley telling twitter followers that Martin shot 61 to beat him by seven when they played together in January, so watch for improvement as he returns closer to home.
Martin's career-best form away from that Shriners victory came courtesy of top-five finishes at Bay Hill and Sawgrass in 2015, but it's Colonial and Harbour Town which particularly interest me if he can get a game. Martin has made five cuts in five visits at the former, while Harbour Town is where he finished third in 2014 and spoke about how much he enjoys the only event played in his home state.
Both these courses work well with his game, and the events come at nice times in the schedule. The Heritage is on the heels of the Masters, and typically the RBC-sponsored big names are vulnerable. Colonial meanwhile has lost a little lustre and also now comes after a major which this year is played in California. Martin isn't in it yet and may just benefit when the Charles Schwab Challenge comes around.
It was a successful couple of days in Scottsdale. I had the chance to play Silverleaf Club yesterday. It was a terrific track...even if @Ben_Martin87 drops a 61 on you to beat you by 7. I recommend you playing if you ever get invited. pic.twitter.com/PHXrsK9QpV
— Chesson Hadley (@chessonhadley) January 4, 2020
Here's a golfer nobody should be pinning their hopes to, one who makes the sport look impossible at times in a way few others with PGA Tour cards can. Indeed, his last two final rounds out on the west coast have been 82 and 80, dropping him a combined 69 places on the leaderboard. Between the two, he opened with a round of 76 in Phoenix and improved his score by seven in the second round.
Yes, Every is a bit of an enigma, but he's also a winner who has bags of ability and can get on a roll when things are going his way. Typically, that happens close to his Florida base, and we saw further evidence of it when he defied a run of miserable performances - he'd shot 75-76 the week before - to finish second in the Byron Nelson Championship last May.
That was his first top-10 finish since the 2018 Houston Open, which in turn was his first top-10 finish since he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational for a second time in 2015. Prior to that he'd been third in Memphis, won the Arnold Palmer for his PGA Tour breakthrough, and been eighth in the Valspar. One hundred per cent of his top-class form over the last six years has come in the south-eastern states.
Every does have bits and pieces elsewhere - he's gone really well in Hawaii, although those are Floridian conditions, and he's been thereabouts in events like The Barclays in New Jersey. But there can be absolutely no doubt that Every at his best in Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Louisiana and the Carolinas is a considerably better golfer than Every at his best anywhere else.
Indeed as well as those two wins at Bay Hill, each of them surprising, he won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship when it was played at Daniel Island in South Carolina. Don't be surprised if he's another who pops up at nearby Hilton Head, where he boasts three top-20 finishes and even showed signs of promise on his last visit in 2018, since when he's salvaged his game.
Sticking with the Floridian theme, the world's most surprising West Ham United fan is another who has every reason to be optimistic having found a return to form when ninth in the Phoenix Open.
Granted, I would prefer that performance to have been built around quality ball-striking rather than his much-improved short-game, but Horschel has a beautiful swing and has built a career on tee-to-green efficiency. I would expect his long-game to come around sooner rather than later.
When it does click, Horschel ought to be a contender wherever he goes. All five of his wins have come in the six months from April to September, and before that he has a chance to build on what's become an excellent record in the Honda Classic, where his recent form figures read 8-4-MC-16.
Further down the line, he's even more effective in the events coming up in Texas - TPC San Antonio on the eve of the Masters is an obvious one to target - and he's also gone close at Habour Town. In fact, as he's not yet in the Masters, Horschel might be among the best options with whom to take on the elite players in that field come April.
Unlike some of these, however, it's not so much Florida or Texas or the specifics of playing on the east coast, even if he is a Florida boy who loves bermuda greens. With Horschel, it's more a belief that the vast improvements he's shown on and around the greens are begging to be complemented by a return to his best driving and iron play.
If and when that happens, he's a player to follow.
Finally, there have been clear signs that Jason Day is fit and firing again and while they came in events he loves in California, he should continue to progress towards The Masters and a course which is so well suited to his game.
Day's weakness remains iron play, relative to those he's trying to compete with, but his short-game is as sharp as ever and if he can make just a few small improvements elsewhere in the bag, he can quickly join Adam Scott, Marc Leishman and Adam Scott in the winners' circle as Australian golf enjoys a phenomenal start to 2020.
It took Day a long time to get to grips with playing on the east coast, but he's cracked it now. In 2016, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the PLAYERS Championship, and further top-10 finishes at Sawgrass in 2018 and 2019 underline he's among the most comfortable players in the sport at Pete Dye's classic.
As a two-time former winner of the Match Play, that event is another likeable target should he choose to enter, but it's Augusta which really piques my interest at this stage. Of course, such is the strength at the head of the market that he's got to do plenty to shorten significantly from 33/1, but regardless of the price he looks an obvious contender.
Day has played Augusta nine times, and he's made the top 30 on every appearance bar when withdrawing with an injury in 2012. Three top-five finishes further underline how close he's been to winning a Green Jacket and he still rates the Aussie most likely to follow in the footsteps of Scott, even if a certain Min Woo Lee might be challenging for that moniker in a couple of years.
Who are you sweet on as the PGA Tour heads east? Tweet @BenColeyGolf with your suggestions and the pick of them will feature below...
Stenson makes my list simply because he could challenge at Bay Hill blindfolded. Plays well there almost every year.
— Warren Allsworth (@warrenallsworth) February 13, 2020
Denny McCarthy is one who I think could breakthru soon - really solid game.
Hoge interests me & if he gets enough starts Harris English playing well
Agree on DB!
Adam Scott.
— Rob Taylor (@RobTaylorSport) February 13, 2020
Boring choice is Tommy, already very high up on my mental shortlist in the Honda and API.
— Jamie W (@sportsnut0) February 13, 2020
NeSmith of the rest. Putting together a very good run of results and think the setup of some of these events will suit.
Yeah, Berger would have been my shout. Think Fleetwood might finally get his USA win as well, assuming he plays regularly. And Scott Scheffler will win on the Tour this year, wouldn't be surprised if he broke through somewhere like the Honda or Valspar.
— Paul Maughan (@morny7) February 13, 2020
I know he has been playing well for months now, but surely Rahm is knocking on the door, and i think he can taste glory at Augusta. Also a big fan of Hovland, albeit started poorly this season.
— Ross Kilvington (@Kilvington91) February 13, 2020
I'm horny with the thought of 100/1 SJI with 10 places at the Masters.
— James Fenn (@JamesFenn90) February 13, 2020
Keith Mitchell springs to mind
— Nick Shaw (@RickShaw90) February 13, 2020
Leishman simpson an matt Fitzpatrick.. two winners on tour this yr an mr consistency..
— Kyle Maguire (@kylemaguire88) February 13, 2020
Daniel berger
— jimmy fitz (@jimmyfi67753488) February 13, 2020
Definitely KM and ME 👀. Also AB-H and Andrew Putnam
— Paul Johnston (@Paul_ABCDM) February 13, 2020
Couple of outsiders, Seiffert (Florida born and bred) and Zhang Xinjun.
— andy duggs (@dougalyd) February 13, 2020
Maybe not the calibre of the aforementioned, but two Florida residents who’ve been ticking over nicely are Charles Howell III & Russell Knox.
— Matt Fletcher (@MattEmjay) February 13, 2020
C.T Pan and Wyndham Clark will make leaderboards at big prices. Clark getting shorter all the time in weeks coming though I’d imagine
— SebastianSidnell (@SebastianSidne4) February 13, 2020
Colin Morikawa. 5 top 10’s in 19 starts. A win. And didn’t flinch when paired with Tiger a couple of weeks ago. He has the physical skills combined with a quiet confidence that I believe will result in tremendous success the next couple of months.
— BD5 Frye (@5FryeMoments) February 13, 2020
Agree with a lot on your initial list. A deeper name that I didn’t see mentioned is Sam Ryder. I’m also going to be taking a close look at the European Tour players who seem to be taking the PGA schedule more seriously this year (e.g., Fitz and Noren).
— Jack Mosey (@jackmosey) February 13, 2020
Yes, Corey Conners. His ball-striking is world class and it seems that he prefers Bermuda a bit more than other surfaces.
— Mark Olson (@mrolson2) February 13, 2020
RCB on the euro side... top-5s at Bay Hill and Sawgrass, T11 at Doral. This will be his 5th year at Augusta, with 14 rounds now under his belt I believe. Has played very well in his two tries at Riviera and should do well again this week.
— Eric Seba (@seebsOKC) February 13, 2020
Grayson Murray and si woo Kim if he continues yesterday decent round through the tournament.
— Matthew Hamilton (@Hammo76) February 14, 2020
Cauley. List. Redman. Knox. An
— Kamal (@KYECHSPORTS) February 13, 2020