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Expert Picks for the Open Championship: Our writers pick out their best bets for Troon
Our writers pick out their best bets from the side markets ahead of the Open Championship, where the defending champion again features.
Brian Harman to finish in the top 20
Former Sky Sports Golf editor Dave Tindall is a regular contributor to betting.betfair.com and various other publications.
It's easy to think that BRIAN HARMAN had his moment in the sun (or perhaps that should be rain) when he won the Open at Royal Liverpool last summer, blitzing the field by an almost hard-to-believe six shots.
That's surely a high watermark but let's not forget that he'd posted sixth at St Andrews 12 months earlier. In other words, Harman has really shown his chops on the links.
He's furthered that reputation with 12th (2023) and 21st (2024) in the last two Scottish Opens and a closing 66 – his low round of the week – at the Renaissance Club on Sunday will put him in good heart for the defence of the Claret Jug.
Ninth at the Travelers Championship and 21st in the US Open before heading to Scotland, it seems a very reasonable ask that the pugnacious left-hander reels off his third straight Open top 20. That's available at 5/2. The 11/2 for a top10 is also worthy of consideration.
Emiliano Grillo to be the top South American
Matt Cooper is a golf journalist and long-time Sporting Life contributor who previews the women's majors for the website and provides tips for multiple tours for betting.betfair.com and others.
This is a match-bet between Joaquin Niemann and EMILIANO GRILLO but note that some books include the Mexican pair Santiago de le Fuente and Abraham Ancer. I wouldn’t be against backing Grillo to better that pair as well, but as a simple match up with Niemann I believe the odds should be much closer.
Niemann will shine in a major sooner or later. It would be preposterous if he did not because he is such a fine player. But even in the wonderful form he has shown since late last year he has continued to struggle transforming his quality into the big ones.
Moreover his Open record is poor. He’s played in four championship, missed two cuts and never finished in the top 50.
Grillo, on the other hand, finished sixth last year at Royal Liverpool and T12 at Royal St George’s in 2021. The clincher is that he was also T12 at Royal Troon on his Open debut in 2016 and the manner of that performance impresses too: no-one hit more fairways than he did and he ranked fourth for hitting greens in regulation.
True he didn’t putt that great but it’s not his strength and at Troon plotting a path to the green matters more. He’s passed that test once, has very recent Open form and, in this market, is up against a man who struggles with this kind of test.
Matthew Southgate to finish in the top 40
Martin Mathews is a golf tipster who provides weekly betting previews for the PGA Tour via his own website, and major previews for Paddy Power.
The name SOUTHGATE has been in the forefront of many an Englishman’s mind over the past month and I am keen to continue that theme for another week by turning my attentions to MATTHEW.
The golfing Southgate can boast two top-10 finishes in the Irish Open as well as an amateur win in the St Andrews Links Trophy, and has become something of a links and indeed Open specialist over the years. Just like his namesake he often comes to prominence on the big stage at this time of year and he can do so again.
It's tears for an emotional Matthew Southgate. This is how much The Open means to him.
— The Open (@TheOpen) July 2, 2024
Listen to the heartfelt moment as Southgate expresses his passion and determination in his journey.
Catch every interview on FQ Radio.https://t.co/EQLZQKEVoM pic.twitter.com/QO2vLrOTU6
Southgate sprung to life at final Open qualifying at Royal Cinque Ports a couple of weeks ago to book his return to the sport's biggest event and then rode that wave to fourth place at the BMW International Open, at a course where he'd previously struggled.
After qualifying for the Open an emotional Southgate talked about what the event and his return to it means to him having attended every year with his late father from 1999 prior to qualifying for the first time in 2014, and standout finishes of sixth and 12th, the latter here, underline how comfortable he is under these conditions.
Freshened up by a weekend off which may be a blessing in disguise, a top-40 finish could be within reach.
Alex Noren to finish in the top 20
David Bieleski is a golf analyst for Win Daily Sports who provides weekly betting previews and selections.
ALEX NOREN was one of the last men in to the Open but could well emerge as a major player and is fancied to secure a top-20 finish.
Unlike many PGA Tour players, Noren has extensive links form. He is a prior winner of the Scottish Open, where he has also finished third. Pleasingly, both of those results came at Castle Stuart before the tournament found its home at The Renaissance. The former is much more of a traditional links test. The latter can most be aptly titled 'Diet Links', although Noren still managed to finish 10th there last week.
In the Dunhill Links, Noren has finished in the top 15 in five of his six most recent appearances and holds a fifth in his sole appearance at Yas Links. If you are looking for a USA-based form guide, there are few better options than PGA National, where he has three top-10s. Padraig Harrington, Ernie Els, and Rory McIlroy have all completed the double with The Open while several others have managed one leg and a near-miss in the other.
In fact, there are some interesting links between the Honda Classic and Royal Troon in general. Shock 500/1 winner Todd Hamilton won The Open here in 2004 and his sole PGA Tour victory came in the Honda. Justin Leonard also won it and he too won a Claret Jug at Royal Troon. And you can throw in Mark Calcavecchia for good measure, all three having proven their adeptness in the Florida winds, which translates here.
Noren five top-20s in 11 appearances at The Open, narrowly missing another last year when 23rd at Hoylake. And 46th at Royal Troon in 2016 should be read in the context of one of the most significant weather waves this tournament has seen: 16 of the top 21 teed off before 10.30am on Friday, but Noren was on the wrong side of the draw, whereas this time he may well have the best of it.
Akshay Bhatia to be the top debutant
Tom Jacobs is the host of the Lost Fore Words podcast and also provides tips and previews for Oddschecker.
Ludvig Aberg is the short-priced favourite in this market and rightly so, but AKSHAY BHATIA is having a fine season, I feel he’s a little overpriced with double-figure odds available. He rates a good each-way bet.
Splitting Aberg and Bhatia is Davis Thompson, and while the recent winner did play in Scotland last week, and shot bookend rounds of 65, I do think Bhatia's season as a whole has to be considered stronger.
There are plenty of other runners in this market, but there's only one who's a two-time PGA Tour winner, who has contended in each of his past two starts, where he could have picked up a third win. Aberg is considered the higher-end talent and for now that's more than fair, especially given his major finishes, but Bhatia is two years his junior and has time on his side.
His 16th at the US Open in his last major start was an encouraging sign, especially as he was inside the top 10 for the first two rounds. There's plenty still to learn for Bhatia, but this feels like a case of 'out of sight, out of mind' after he skipped the Scottish Open, given his most recent finishes read 22-16-5-2.
I'll take a shot on the considerable upside of Bhatia, who has at least shown some glimpses of links form by winning two of his three matches in the 2019 Walker Cup at Royal Liverpool, and has won by the sea at a lower level.
Abraham Ancer to be the top final qualifier
Ben Coley is Sporting Life's golf columnist and tipster.
I usually take the shortcut here and paste over a selection from my specials preview, but Sky Bet have a market I can't find elsewhere and this seems the best place to mention it. They are betting on who will be the top final qualifier, i.e. those who came through four such events held across the UK a couple of weeks ago, and ABRAHAM ANCER stands out.
I do also quite like Angel Hidalgo and splitting stakes on the two is a good option, but Ancer deserves favouritism over Justin Rose, who has never really been a natural links golfer. Of course, he has that top-five finish as an amateur but it took him 20 years to match it at Carnoustie and his high ball-flight is a big worry in the forecast wind, as is his general form outside of the PGA Championship.
Ancer is almost certainly a better player at the moment, one who has won at a firm golf course on the LIV circuit this year and who has maintained decent standards since, continuing to pound fairways. He's also a past winner in Australia, again under firm conditions, and he's gradually got to grips with the Open, making his last three cuts with a best of 11th at St Andrews.
With Sam Horsfield also better suited to a more controlled environment, and an amateur challenging for fourth place in the betting, there's not much depth here and the best player looks more a 3/1 shot than the available 9/2. If Rose does misfire, Ancer might not need to match his previous Open best to win this. Very few of these will make the weekend.
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