Ben Coley was in front with his three-ball selections over the first two days of the US Open - get his thoughts on the third round plus some two-ball fancies.
Recommended bets
2pts Abraham Ancer to win his two-ball at 23/20
2pts Louis Oosthuizen and Harris English to win their two-balls at 2.26/1
Perhaps the most nervous person at Winged Foot ahead of the third round of the US Open ought to be Mike Davis, rather than Patrick Reed or Bryson DeChambeau. Davis is the CEO of the USGA, who so far have played their cards perfectly, a tentative beginning replaced on Friday by a serious, what you might call traditional US Open test. Just three players broke 70 as the challenge everyone expected arrived a date late by necessity.
So far, so good - but there are two days still to go, and that mantra, one which should be in the minds of Reed and DeChambeau, should underpin what organisers do from here. There is a very fine line between presenting a difficult, unrelenting test, and falling into the sort of territory which made the third round of the 2018 edition, at nearby Shinnecock, such a mess.
That day, Daniel Berger and Tony Finau reignited their challenges with matching 66s, before carnage ensued. Halfway leader Dustin Johnson shot 77, Brooks Koepka clung on grimly for a round of 72 which built the platform for a successful title defence, and Phil Mickelson hit a moving ball. Zach Johnson said, famously, 'they've lost the course', 'they' being the USGA. It was controversial and probably unfair, those who'd played the best golf over the first two rounds sacrificed to maintain the event's reputation.
Berger and Finau were both 11 back and tied for 45th before shooting four-under to move into a tie for the lead, making up the final group ahead of Koepka and Johnson. Two years and three months later, the first groups to the first tee will begin the third round just 10 back and tied for 49th. Were a repeat of Shinnecock to unfold, all of them would be one round away from a chance, two from pulling off a cut-to-victory turnaround which can happen when the going gets tough. It almost did this year, at the Honda Classic.
Second-guessing the USGA is almost as foolish as second-guessing the weather, but a combination of both leads me to believe that the winner will - as is usually the case, of course - come from the front. More than that, I would go as far as saying we will see further separation between the bottom of the leaderboard and the top. The USGA first of all look like they might have learned from their mistakes, ones which saw some players hint at a boycott. The weather is gorgeous, but significantly it's currently forecast to blow up to 13mph until the leaders tee-off, around which time it dips to single-figures.
Those two small factors, combined with a quality leaderboard, look to narrow the potential champions and though not one to draw arbitrary lines - if you can win from three-over, you can win from four-over - it's going to be hard for anyone to make up ground here. Five of the last six US Open winners were in fact tied for the lead or leading outright at this stage, Justin Rose in 2013 was third, and the last player to come from outside the top five and win was Webb Simpson in 2012. He did so from 29th.
That's all good news if you're on Patrick Reed and he's probably the man to beat. His short-game has been magnificent, particularly the putter, and he's got all the tools to win this major and add it to his Green Jacket. That he's done so before gives him a small but nevertheless definite advantage over Bryson DeChambeau, and though Justin Thomas fought hard in the second round, I do wonder if that's a better indicator than the first, where he relished receptive greens.
One of the three will likely win, with Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama put forward as the pair most likely to make a run at them from four adrift. All of this looks to be reflected in the market and though tempting to side with the impressive Harris English at 14/1, it's seven years since he won. Ending a drought like that in an event like this, however well he is playing, would be extraordinary.
Those looking for a bet are pointed towards Reed, but he was put up on these pages last December at 80/1, five places only, to a significant stake, and that's why he does not feature in the recommended bets at the top of this page. He can get the better of DeChambeau today and fend off the challengers on Sunday to add yet another big title to his collection and further enhance his record on these tough courses in New York and New Jersey.
The aforementioned HARRIS ENGLISH is the best two-ball bet, even at 4/6. He tees off alongside a previously out-of-sorts Rafa Cabrera Bello, who salvaged his round over the easier stretch of holes six to nine on Friday.
English has gained strokes in all departments this week and has barely been in trouble. When he has, a silky short-game has made up for it and his second-round 70 was just about as relaxed as it gets on an increasingly tough afternoon at a US Open.
He's built up the confidence and mentality to do it with a brilliant season, which started without a full PGA Tour card and ended with him inside the world's top 50, having climbed more than 300 places. He'll keep climbing, too, and whatever happens this weekend he seems very likely to win again during the months ahead.
Cabrera Bello's form stands in total contrast - and it's not surprising that he owes his position to a red-hot putter. The Spaniard leads the field with a club which has not been reliable throughout his career and it may only need the pressure of playing in the second-last group to put an end to that.
English is 4/6 across the board and looks more like a 1/2 shot. He's bigger than Justin Thomas, who could also be too good for a player who is putting well. But Jason Kokrak arrived here in brilliant form and it's not a surprise to see him in the mix. Cabrera Bello's effort is out of the blue and it's rare for a player of his profile to keep things moving in the right direction.
Those not wanting to get stuck in at odds-on should considering doubling English with LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN, who earlier this week took over from Jack Nicklaus as the player with most rounds of 67 or lower at the US Open to underline how well he's performed in this event down the years.
He tees off with Joaquin Niemann, and these Presidents Cup team-mates are worth keeping an eye on should they feed off each other. If anyone is going to help Niemann stay relaxed should he edge closer to the front, it is probably Oosthuizen, and the Chilean does have recent form under comparable conditions from the BMW Championship in Illinois.
Still, I can't see how Oosthuizen should be odds-against in places with the general 10/11 perfectly fair, too. His experience and demeanour could be invaluable and back to that putter, he's given up a couple of shots to Niemann on the greens. That seems unlikely to sustain and a double with English pays upwards of 2/1.
From the earlier groups, ABRAHAM ANCER is considered value to edge out Shane Lowry.
I'd never underestimate an Open champion with US Open form at Oakmont, which is what Lowry is. But Ancer has won an Australian Open under firm and difficult conditions, too, and among his best stateside efforts was a runner-up finish to Reed in The Northern Trust at a testing Liberty National.
That form is correlating quite nicely here with Reed out in front, Jon Rahm, Thomas, Kokrak, Oosthuizen and a few more close enough if good enough, and Ancer's play this year probably ought to earn him favouritism. Over the season just gone he finished ahead of Lowry in eight of their 11 corresponding starts, and across those his third-round lead reads 5-2.
Lowry had to put a new driver in the bag last week as well as new irons and might just need a while longer to get used to them. Again, he's putted a little better than his Mexican playing partner and, going into a difficult day, I'd much rather rely on the sustainability of a reliable long-game - like that of Ancer.
Posted at 0810 BST on 19/09/20
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
