Ian Richards previews the final round of the Houston Open, where Dustin Johnson lurks menacingly behind the leaders.
Recommended bets
2pts win Dustin Johnson at 5/1
1pt e.w. Michael Thompson at 100/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
When the PGA Tour announced that this year's Houston Open would be played on a municipal golf course I probably wasn’t alone in thinking that it would be a low-scoring birdie-fest. What has transpired couldn’t be further from that scenario with Memorial Park proving to be one of the tougher courses we've seen this year. Whether this proves to be an advantage to players who skipped the event before the Masters or to those who have honed their game on a difficult course will be interesting to see at Augusta next week.
The only other municipal golf course used with regularity on the PGA tour is Torrey Pines and it is interesting that despite the two courses being very different they are playing equally as hard. Maybe that’s the answer to courses playing easy – just trick up some public courses!
Matt Cooper did sone analysis a few months back and roughly 97% of all PGA tour winners have been in the top ten with a round to go, whilst 92% of winners are four shots back or fewer, so as usual it makes sense to concentrate on those players.
Jason Day will enter the final round as favourite yet despite the odd Torrey Pines link, where he has twice been a winner, I don’t think he’s backable at the price. He hasn’t won for two-and-a-half years and those niggling injury worries that caused him to withdraw at the CJ Cup after three rounds when in contention could always resurface. The sloppy bogey at the 18th will also not do much for his confidence going into the final round.
We have a lot of players in the top ten looking for their first PGA Tour win and Sam Burns is the lowest priced of those as he takes a one-shot lead heading into Sunday. He got off to a shaky start in round three, bogeying his first two holes, but got back on track with a hole out eagle on the eighth. After that he still looked a bit wayward off the tee and he will have to calm those nerves to lift the trophy on Sunday.
Carlos Ortiz is a three-time winner on the Korn Ferry tour, the last of which came six years ago, but he has yet to win on the PGA Tour in 113 attempts. Playing close to where he went to college and with some good form lately, he seems sure to hang around the top of the leaderboard but taking a single-figure price on a player who is looking to finally break his duck is not for me.
Sepp Straka became the first Austrian to gain a PGA Tour card in 2018 with one win on the Korn Ferry Tour. I am guessing he has been buoyed this week into a solid performance by the fact that he was fourth in this event last year, one of his better finishes, and he's popped up enough over the last 18 months to be respected.
Dawie van Der Walt lives locally and is playing on a sponsor's exemption, looking to emulate Martin Laird who won at the Shriners – albeit he was a past champion of that event. There have only been eight such winners in the past 20 years and I really can’t see the big South African being the next. If he does stick around and gets into a play-off he will probably dread it – he lost an 11-hole play-off in the Cleveland Open back in 2014!
Dawie isn’t the only South African-born player in the mix – it’s odd what you find on Wikipedia but Aaron Wise, who sits alongside him in a tie for sixth, was actually born in Cape Town. He has the huge benefit of actually having won at this level – in 2018 and in Texas. The problem is he hasn't been in contention much since that win and there isn’t any real value in his price.
By contrast, DUSTIN JOHNSON is looking for his third proper win of the season and fourth in total, having landed the TOUR Championship where he was given a lead to start with.
He has performed better as the week has progressed on his comeback from a positive Covid-19 test, despite a cold putter on Saturday. He is my idea of the winner to add to those three titles he has already bagged in 2020, from just 16 starts. There are question marks hanging over all of his rivals at the top and the general 5/1 looks good as he attempts to bridge a four-shot deficit, with just four players in front of him.
For those looking for an outsider who has been rolling in putts from great distances this week take a look at Michael Thompson. It is one of those courses where getting the ball close to the hole has been very difficult and Thompson would only need to improve one of his two 67s by a couple of strokes to get near the places.
He can play with less pressure than a lot having finally won again a few months ago, doing this column a favour at the time. Three birdies over his closing five holes putt him right on the fringes and if Johnson does prove the man to beat, this fellow former US Open contender might be able to lay down some kind of challenge at a big price.
Posted at 2150 GMT on 07/11/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
