Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational
Ben Coley previews the final round of the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational, where Bryson DeChambeau is in position to pounce.
Golf betting tips: WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational
3pts Bryson DeChambeau to win at 13/5 (Unibet)
2pts Abraham Ancer to beat Cameron Smith at 23/20 (bet365, Betway)
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU is many things, but for the purposes of this column let's focus on one of the biggest positives from a golfing perspective: he is a fantastic closer who has been as prolific as anyone in the sport lately from the final group.
That's where he finds himself going into Sunday at the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational, but he isn't favourite, because Harris English has a two-shot lead over DeChambeau and Cameron Smith.
These are two high-class opponents whose short-games can get them out of deep holes. English has putted superbly all week, leading the field. Smith, who officially needed just 18 putts on Friday to tie the all-time PGA Tour record, ranks second. Should these two continue to roll in putts from on and even off the green, of course the challenge for DeChambeau is not an easy one.
But he's been the best ball-striker in the field, by a distance, and has his irons tuned in to a level he may never before have reached, not even when winning the US Open. That provides the platform for a big finish, and all the evidence we have is that not only does he thrive in the final group, but playing partners often suffer.
English is an unflappable southerner who takes things as they come, and who, like DeChambeau, has won twice this season. But with respect to them, he played alongside Jason Day when coming from off the pace to beat Kramer Hickok at the Travelers, and when beating a high-class field in Hawaii he was paired with Ryan Palmer, a habitual nearly-man, in the final round.
This is an altogether different task and even if he does cope perfectly well, any downturn in his putting will leave him vulnerable, and give DeChambeau a fabulous chance to enhance a quite brilliant record.
So far in his career, DeChambeau has played in the final group on 11 occasions, and he's won on eight of them. There's no massaging of the figures either: only once was he a long way clear and that was over world-class rivals, who he led by four, and ended up beating by four.
If we look more specifically at today's circumstances - final group, not leading - he's three from five. The two players who beat him in this tournaments, the PLAYERS Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, were Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. Remarkably, the only player to have stood side-by-side with Bryson DeChambeau in the final group on the final day and lifted the trophy at the end of it is Richard McEvoy.
These are not enormous sample sizes and every day, every tournament, is different. But they do paint a picture: of a player whose massive flaws off the course (and on it) might kid us into believing he's more vulnerable under pressure than he in fact is; of someone who might even be good at upsetting the rhythm of his rivals. And as far as the here and now goes, they suggest 2/1 and bigger must be taken.
English could rise to the challenge, but he might also be playing for his Ryder Cup place here and mistakes are likely to be punished by a slimmed-down DeChambeau, who seems to have found some feel with his irons at last, and who appears to have got his relatively new caddie up to speed in time for a World Golf Championship breakthrough.
Certainly, the risk of DeChambeau beating English but being beaten by someone else does exist, but the gap back to the sort of behemoth whose name would fit alongside McIlroy and Thomas is five. Dustin Johnson still isn't driving the ball well enough to be considered a serious threat, and I would be more concerned about Scottie Scheffler or ABRAHAM ANCER getting hot on the greens.
Ancer is better than he gets given credit for in the mix, having shot rounds of 65 and 69 in final groups only to finish second, to Webb Simpson most recently and to DeChambeau himself back in 2018. The criticism I would level at the Mexican is that he's in fact not given himself many chances to win for the first time on the PGA Tour, rather than having wasted plenty of them.
Still, he's certainly more comfortable when just outside of the spotlight and he gets to tee it up with Presidents Cup teammate Smith here, making for a fascinating penultimate group. There is a risk either or both of them hits a wall having been in Tokyo last week, but Ancer's golf has been largely stress-free and I would make him favourite to beat his Australian playing partner.
Smith has been brilliant on and around the greens and that could well continue, as it is not really a surprise for all his short game cost him an Olympic medal. That said he is always at risk of running into trouble around here, Southwind being lined with water hazards and still relatively thick rough, and Ancer's accuracy may be decisive in a comfortable pairing.
He flew home for eighth in the PGA Championship and almost stole the Wells Fargo from McIlroy, so watch for a run from the 30-year-old, who ranks 10th in final-round scoring. Smith, who is 82nd, has shot 74 in his last two PGA Tour final rounds, falling from inside the top 10 to outside the top 20, and I give the edge to the player who has been made a marginal underdog.
Others to consider are Rory McIlroy, who might well beat a still below-par Justin Thomas but is priced accordingly, and Min Woo Lee. He's out in the first group alongside Wilco Nienaber and, despite being much higher-ranked, in largely better form, and four shots ahead of his fellow young slugger, has been chalked up at odds-against. It may not be pretty, but Lee can win with a score in the seventies.
As for the leaders, it'll need to be something much lower than that if DeChambeau is to beat English to becoming the first player to win three times this season. But in earning a place in the final group, and the opportunity to be the one asking questions, he might just have put himself in position to do it.
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Posted at 0900 BST on 08/08/21
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