In-form golf expert Ben Coley landed more profits with a 200/1 shot last week, but this time is big on the favourite in Prague.
Recommended bets: Czech Masters
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Qualification for the 2018 European Ryder Cup side begins in the otherwise low-key D&D Real Czech Masters, where star of 2016 Thomas Pieters gets the chance to atone for last week's missed cut in Denmark.
The Belgian broke through to win here at Albatross Golf Resort two years ago and looked set to double up when defending, only to come out second best after a prolonged Sunday battle with an inspired Paul Peterson.
Pieters went on to win in Denmark the very next week and seal that Ryder Cup debut, and while winning this again won't change his life, there are plenty of reasons for him to be highly motivated on his third visit to the course. Missing the weekend when defending at a course like Himmerland, where Ryder Cup captain Thomas Bjorn made his 500th appearance, will have stung almost as much as his second place here did.
When the obscenely powerful Pieters landed this title - something he achieved in a display of poise which offered a hint as to what he might become - it wasn't exactly a surprise. Albatross is, quite simply, a course made for big hitters. All of the par-fives are difficult to reach and closely guarded by disaster, while the shorter the iron the better for a set of challenging par-threes.
Runner-up to Pieters was Pelle Edberg, one of the longest hitters on the circuit, so despite Peterson's defiant display of accuracy, power once again looks the key attribute. The numbers say you have to stay out of trouble at a fairly demanding course, and the easiest way to do that is so often to get as close to the green as possible in one shot.
Pieters, as such, is worth backing at the industry-wide 9/1, or even 10s in a place if you can grab that.
Yes, he missed the cut last week, but I'm certain Albatross suits more than Himmerland. A collision of circumstance, including having a point to prove and being in the form of his life, led to his victory in Denmark a year ago and he's going to be much more effective on this type of golf course in the fullness of time.
Nor was his performance in Denmark especially poor. Pieters made nine birdies across his two rounds - equal to runner-up David Horsey and indeed the winner, Julian Suri, albeit he also made an eagle. He was undone by a mad hour in which he doubled the par-three second before running up an eight at the difficult sixth. Unfortunately, it happens.
What we know about Pieters already is that, like so many of these world-class youngsters, he is extremely adept at bouncing back. He finished fourth in the Masters after two abject rounds at Bay Hill and then an early exit at the Match Play, while fourth place at Firestone came after a no-show fortnight around the Open Championship.
Both examples are in part to do with the ups and downs that all aggressive young golfers endure, but also the fact that he found comfort on more suitable courses to shine.
Considering that Pieters went off a shorter price last week and now faces a largely similar field, in which his chief rival - fellow course specialist Matthew Fitzpatrick - is in a slump which dates back to May, I think Pieters is highly likely to step up and contend as he's done in both starts here. As such there's no hesitation in getting him on-side.
Fitzpatrick can't be ruled out, especially given that two of his three European Tour wins came on the back of missed cuts. Like Pieters, he loves it here, knows how to recapture his game seemingly out of nowhere and, of course, will be eager to make a good start in the battle for Ryder Cup places.
I would certainly rather back him than Jordan Smith, a played I've long admired but one who finds himself in amongst members of the European Tour elite in this market. That seems a little soon to me, even if we are talking about a player who followed a breakthrough win as a rookie with a top-10 finish at the PGA Championship.
You suspect that both Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer will now need to qualify for the Ryder Cup automatically if they're to remain part of the European side, notwithstanding their excellent records at host venue Le Golf National, but neither man has shown enough of late to be of interest even in this fairly modest field and it's the Belgian who should prove hard to beat.
With Pieters on-side, then, I'll add some big-priced selections starting with Justin Walters.
This journeyman South African is something of an underachiever, given that he once beat Hunter Mahan when actually representing England as an amateur and had appeared to have an extremely bright future beyond the boundaries of the Sunshine Tour.
However, he's got a touch of class about him when on-song and last week's back-to-form 14th in Denmark really caught the eye, rounds of 71-68-69-66 representing a huge step forward on his previous visits to Himmerland.
While the performance was in some respects a surprise, the timing of it was not. Walters is languishing way down the Race To Dubai rankings and, unlike some in his predicament, has experience when it comes to working his way out of it.
Four years ago, he produced the performance of his career in Portugal to salvage his card for 2014 and in each of the last two years, he's snapped the now customary summer slump as we move into autumn.
Last year's salvage job started here in the Czech Republic, as he struck the ball nicely and improved throughout the tournament to finish 11th, in what proved to be his best performance of the season outside of his homeland.
Following a slight switch in the calendar, this time he gets to follow Denmark with this event and having ranked sixth for greens hit at the former last week, he looks primed to go well again and get in the mix at some point.
One firm offers a silly 250/1, but quotes of 200 and 150 elsewhere are perfectly fine.
Walters' younger compatriots Zander Lombard and Haydn Porteous are fairly interesting. Lombard has placed in two of the most big-hitter-friendly events in Europe this year, the second of which came just a month ago in Germany, while Porteous is beginning to rediscover the form which has long marked him out as a special talent in the making.
Winning outside of South Africa requires another step up for both, however, and as their respective prices look about right I'll move on to the latter's namesake, Garrick Porteous.
The 27-year-old played Walker Cup golf with Smith and Fitzpatrick and is now making a name for himself, winning his first Challenge Tour title by five shots earlier this summer.
Significantly, that came nearby in Prague and capped a fine record in the Czech Republic for this former winner of the Amateur Championship. Porteous played in the Czech Masters on an invite three years ago, just his 13th start as a professional, and did phenomenally well to tie for ninth.
Since winning on the Challenge Tour he's held his form well, adding another top-10 finish in Italy before staying on for 21st last week. He made 17 birdies across the closing three rounds after a nightmare start and that should have him in good shape for a return to this course, which we know he enjoys.
I've no doubt as well that Suri's win last week will have given the Challenge Tour crop who find themselves up in grade this week a real boost.
The American was well behind Porteous not only in Prague but also in Italy a week later, and seeing him produce such a brilliant weekend display in Denmark further underlines that there are no longer barriers preventing young players from making an immediate transition.
It's still asking a lot for Porteous to follow suit, but three-figure prices are nevertheless worth taking. There are some Challenge Tour players with less potential who are shorter in the betting and I think there's real significance in the location of this event.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is tempting on his course debut. The burly Thai played well for two rounds in Germany last time, hits it plenty far enough and is classy on his day. This year hasn't gone to plan but there have been enough positives to suggest he's got to be worth a second glance at 33/1 in this field.
Lee Slattery brings a rather more straightforward case to the table owing to his likeable blend of course and current form, which includes leading the field in greens last week, but wins are hard to come by for the Southport man and he's not the type of player I particularly want to be on at the prices.
Instead, I'll give another chance to Tom Lewis after a fairly promising week in Denmark.
The Englishman has a solid record here and his combination of long, straight hitting earned a share of 27th behind Peterson in 2016.
As mentioned last week, he looked in really good shape in terms of the long-game in the Paul Lawrie Match Play and was on the fringes for a long time in Denmark, ultimately undone by a poor back-nine in round two which saw him drop out of contention.
Like Pieters, he might just be better suited to Albatross given how much he likes to lean on the driver and while those nagging issues around consistency and short-game options remain, he's a player to keep a very close eye on over the next month or two.
Finally, Swedes have always done phenomenally well in the Czech Republic, presumably due to some kind of longitudinal forces which are way beyond my comprehension.
Peter Hanson and Oskar Henningsson both won the Moravia Silesia Open around the turn of the decade, an event in which Mikael Lundberg was then second, and of course there's the aforementioned Edberg here two years ago.
There are plenty more examples and they include victory for Jens Fahbring on the Challenge Tour, which is one of a handful of reasons to expect him to outperform odds of 200/1.
The 33-year-old missed the cut here last year but his previous visit to the country had been a winning one and his golf over the last few weeks has been very encouraging.
Granted, he missed the cut in Denmark but a second-round 68 in difficult conditions saw him leave with his head held high, and his prior strokeplay start saw him take fifth place behind Smith in Germany.
That was an event which demanded a lot of driver hitting and Fahbring played beautifully, ultimately undone by a shaky putter and a bout of understandable nerves playing out of the final group on Sunday.
Even so, fifth place was a major boost towards his prospects of keeping hold of a European Tour card, but at 109th in the standings there's work still to do and with that in mind, a return to Prague comes at just the right time.
This two-time Challenge Tour winner has enough about him to win a low-grade European Tour event and is taken to show it here.
Posted at 2040 BST on 28/08/17.
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