Waste Management Phoenix Open betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Byeong Hun An at 80/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Corey Conners at 80/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Max Homa at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Martin Laird at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. J.J. Spaun at 300/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

In 2015, Jon Rahm offered the first real glimpse of his awesome ability in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Still a year-and-a-half away from turning professional, the Spaniard finished fifth in what was just his second taste of life on the PGA Tour, putting to use the experience of Scottsdale he'd gained in a record-setting stint at Arizona State.

Five years on, Rahm returns to his adopted home as favourite to win this tournament and, with it, potentially take over at the top of the world rankings. It would be a key milestone in the career of a player who has made the ascent to this level appear so straightforward that it almost serves to undermine his own brilliance. Rahm has won 10 titles already as a professional and hasn't yet played a hundred events.

It's hard to envisage anything but a strong bid for the title here in Phoenix, at a course where he's yet to finish worse than 16th and, in 16 rounds, has only once failed to break par. Rahm arrives as arguably the world's in-form player and while failing to convert a 54-hole lead in California last week, the way he rallied over the closing stretch has to be considered encouraging. There's too much talk about his temper, but if he continues to grind out results like that runner-up finish when things have gone seriously wrong from the start of the final round, we really will be talking about the complete package.

Rahm is the right favourite, but what's striking about this market is that every single player priced at under 50/1 - and there are more than a dozen of them - comes with some kind of ready-made case. Even Tony Finau, whose course record is poor, at least has last week's top-six finish to call upon, plus the fact he's decided to make Scottsdale his base and, fundamentally, ought to find this course to his liking.

That makes it quite hard to unravel, and while naturally inclined towards those at around the 33/1 mark, in Rahm and Justin Thomas we should prepare ourselves for something similar to Torrey Pines, where Rahm and Rory McIlroy looked like being hard to keep out of the frame and so it proved. With Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama and Webb Simpson boasting impeccable course credentials and Xander Schauffele also having taken to this place along with former winner Gary Woodland, it's hard to find a gap to be exploited here.

Perhaps the way in is through Bryson DeChambeau, who is every bit as good as all of these bar perhaps Rahm and JT, who could so easily have won last week, yet who can be be backed at 28/1. It does rather stand out, and the Tour's experimenter-in-chief could so easily bounce off the ropes to make people look like dopes at a course where he was fifth in 2018 on a less impressive preparation.

Speaking of preparation, it's possible that taking part in the Dubai Desert Classic proves beneficial - as several European Tour raiders have hinted at here in the past. Ultimately, desert golf is desert golf and this risk-reward par 71 is closer tied to the courses we've seen recently in the Middle East than Torrey Pines, where Rahm, Fowler, Matsuyama and Finau played last week.

That being said, there's still a little inconsistency in DeChambeau's game which I find a little worrying, and conditions in Dubai made it more of a grind than this Super Bowl party ought to be - notwithstanding the final round last year, as conditions turned. He might well be capable of winning here having been fourth when last playing a full-field PGA Tour event, but he'll have to do so unbacked, a comment which applies to all of those at the front of the market.

I had earmarked Sungjae Im for this, but his iron play has been poor over the last two events. Scottsdale has traditionally been an event in which the strongest ball-strikers come to the fore - see surprise winners Kevin Stadler and Kyle Stanley, habitual contender Bubba Watson, two-time winner Matsuyama, runners-up Louis Oosthuizen, Graham DeLaet and Jason Dufner, 2010 champion Hunter Mahan, and countless others who base their games around hitting greens.

Every champion in memory has featured towards the top of the greens-in-regulation charts, so while Im could do that if he gets back to his best and Collin Morikawa is another likely contender, my inclination is to side with some ball-strikers at bigger odds and take on board the attached risks.

Let's start, after ten long paragraphs of obfuscation, with BYEONG HUN AN, an 80/1 shot who is more than capable of securing his first PGA Tour title here.

In fact, Scottsdale is just about the best course for An's breakthrough, as he's gone well here on each of his three visits to demonstrate again that desert golf is desert golf wherever you are in the world.

An had already proven himself in the Middle East when he turned up here in 2017 and led through 54 holes, over which he'd made one bogey which was, of course, a three-putt.

The Korean came home in 73, a few mistakes creeping in during what was his first taste of playing in the final group on the PGA Tour, and some iffy weekend golf has cost him on both subsequent visits as he's faded to 23rd and 20th, latterly having again been right in the mix with a round to play.

As you'd expect, these three performances have been powered by aggressive iron play and he's spoken more than once about how comfortable he feels at Scottsdale.

"The course I think just suits my eye," he said. "The hole shaping... there is not much of a dogleg left or right. You basically hit drivers out there and try to carry all the bunkers.

"I think the yardages fit me nicely on the second shots. I think everything just suits my game on this course. I like desert golf courses."

Aside from his continuing issues with the putter, the main negative here is that An has hardly set the world alight so far in 2020. That said, he ranked 12th in strokes-gained approach in making the cut last week and while failing to do so in The American Express, he produced three solid enough rounds after a lightning start on his return to action.

We'll need him to improve again, but he's just so comfortable here and can flush his way into the mix. Perhaps this time he can see things through a little better.

COREY CONNERS is another who has made his name by hitting greens - in fact, no player hit a higher percentage during the 2019 season, one he started without full status but ended as a PGA Tour winner.

That victory as a Monday qualifier in Texas is a decent enough pointer in itself, TPC San Antonio having some obvious similarities with Scottsdale, but what's most compelling is the form he's shown since, a period when so many breakthrough winners struggle to adjust to their enhanced status.

Dating back to July, Conners has managed 10 top-25 finishes in 11 starts, arriving here on a run of six top-20s, and 12th place when fancied for the Sony Open was a very nice way to begin the new year.

While he'd finished with a rattle for third place there a year earlier, I don't believe Conners is likely to be any less suited to Scottsdale on what's his debut in the event, which while not perhaps ideal didn't stop Stanley and Brooks Koepka winning the title.

I think his progress over the last six or so months has gone largely unnoticed with quotes of 80/1 and he looks a massive each-way player as he looks to climb inside the world's top 50 from his current perch of 61st.

Matthew Wolff interested me somewhat - he's twice the price of Morikawa, the pair having finished alongside each other last week, and Wolff gained some Scottsdale experience when playing well to finish 50th as an amateur last year.

At 66/1 he's considered along with the altogether less exhilarating Ryan Moore, but next on my list is MAX HOMA.

A Scottsdale resident, Homa snapped a run of missed cuts - six in total - when finishing 26th here last year, striking the ball especially well as he took the first steps towards a maiden victory at Quail Hollow in the spring.

One year on, he arrives in much better form courtesy of last week's top-10 finish at Torrey Pines, after which he spoke so well regarding the shocking death of LA Lakers legend Kobe Bryant.

Homa again did everything well at Torrey Pines, a big step forward with the putter the final piece of the jigsaw, and everything now looks in place at a course which really should play to his strengths.

The twitter star has ranked first, fourth, 10th and 14th for greens hit over his last four starts, as good a sequence as he's produced, and if the putter continues to fire he looks set to outplay his odds.

So too might MARTIN LAIRD, another Scottsdale resident who earns the benefit of the doubt owing to an outstanding record in the desert.

As well as regularly contending for this title, Laird has never been worse than 15th in six starts in Reno, and his very first PGA Tour win came at TPC Summerlin in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, where he was beaten in a play-off as defending champion.

Back to Scottsdale, Laird has been third, fifth, seventh and ninth here, and having been eighth through 54 holes last year it's only a bad round in foul weather which prevents him from arriving in search of his fourth top-10 finish in succession.

In 2019 his form coming in read MC-43 and in 2018 he finished ninth here having missed two cuts in as many starts, so while MC-55 doesn't read particularly well it's important to remember that he's defied a similar preparation in the past.

In fact, three of his four career wins have been out of the blue and this high-ball hitter, who ranked 14th for greens in regulation last season, is perfectly capable of emerging to contend here once again.

At 37 and having not won anything since 2013, getting over the line would be a concern, but he's so well suited to this challenge that I'd rather roll the dice on four good rounds for a place than get stuck into anyone at the front of the market.

Harry Higgs and Tom Hoge are two from last week who could back-up - Hoge is playing really well and has some good rounds here under his belt - but the final selection is J.J. SPAUN at 300/1.

As with Laird, his form figures explain the price - Spaun is without a top-10 finish in over a year - but there were some good signs at Torrey Pines last week, where he finished 30th having found a return to his ball-striking best.

Spaun has been a regular contender in the desert, finishing third in the Barracuda and 10th in the Shriners, while here at Scottsdale he was excellent when fourth behind Matsuyama, Simpson and Oosthuizen, with subsequent winner Fowler alongside and An, Daniel Berger and Laird just behind.

It would be fair to say I'd take a repeat of that 2017 leaderboard, and there's an element of the obvious about each of these relative outsiders which makes me a little uncomfortable.

And yet, year after year, players with desert form and games built around hitting greens come to the fore at Scottsdale, so let's stick to that formula and hope we can get a strong group of favourites beat.

Sky Bet specials

An, Conners, Homa, Laird or Spaun to win - 18/1

Any of the five to finish T5 or better - 11/4

Any two of the five to finish T5 or better - 28/1

Any three of the five to finish T10 or better - 66/1

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Posted at 1035 GMT on 28/01/20

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