Throughout 2020, we'll be looking at the state of play at halfway in all European and PGA Tour events, as well as prior to the final round. Here's Ben Coley on the Saudi International.
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2pt double Pieters and Lowry to win their two-balls at 1.83/1
The presence of Victor Perez towards the top of a European Tour leaderboard is becoming increasingly familiar and, after a superb birdie at his final hole on Friday, the Frenchman holds a one-shot lead going into the weekend.
Since breaking through to win last year's Dunhill Links, a week in which he revealed not only a local connection but also tremendous fight, Perez has built a platform for a Ryder Cup appearance in September. Not that it'll be on his mind when he tees off on Saturday; the point is simply to illustrate just how far he's come in a short space of time.
He does have to put behind him a woeful Sunday performance in Dubai last week, having started the round as arguably the man to beat, but that shouldn't be a problem. In fact the real problem has disappeared for now: Perez managed to elevate himself to 41st in the world despite an unruly putter, which has started to behave since he returned in January.
At 9/4, Perez is neither tempting nor particularly underpriced. He's the man to beat, his approach play opening up chances he's increasingly able to take, and these tougher conditions at Royal Greens suit him nicely.
Alongside Perez in the final group is Gavin Green, the sole shining light from my pre-tournament preview. Green did really well in the second round, shooting 67 despite a late bogey, and if he can avoid more clumsy three-putts he looks ready to win on the European Tour.
The quibble with Green is that he's lacking a little in final-group experience, but that's where the presence of Perez becomes beneficial. The pair not only played college golf together in New Mexico, they were in fact room-mates, and while their paths have diverged since they're sure to enjoy being together again, albeit in opposition.
Green's method this week has so far been similar to that of Perez, in that he's built his score on quality iron play and largely efficient putting. I don't expect him to go anywhere on Saturday, and it's in the final round where his mettle will be properly tested. Still, let's deal with the cards as they are now: Green was third in Prague from one shot back at halfway in 2018; he faded to 12th from the same position in Switzerland last September, though I'll put that at least in part down to a claustrophobic course. This one suits better.
Outright punters should acknowledge the possibility that Perez and Green feed off each other and both score well, but still the temptation is to look further down the leaderboard. Graeme McDowell is 10/1 to win from two back, Dustin Johnson the same price to win from five back, and of the two the former is far more tempting. Johnson still doesn't look quite at it - that he's still in this says more about the level of competition and his fondness for the course than his current wellbeing, though of course he's respected.
McDowell, who started the year with a top-five finish in Hawaii, appears to be right back to something like his best. The test will be playing with Renato Paratore, the fastest player on the circuit. McDowell complained at feeling rushed in round two, having been given a bad time, and there's a risk he's thrown out of his rhythm by a cruel set of circumstances.
For a bet, if you can stomach it, THOMAS PIETERS is a strong fancy to outscore Alex Bjork.
Pieters has been playing well for ages now and moving day is set up perfectly for this frustrating talent to be among its lowest scorers. He's fought back well from being three-over early in the tournament - he deserves credit for this improvement in fight, which he's demonstrated since last summer - and at 66/1 with five places is a perfectly reasonable bet in the outright market.
Bjork, meanwhile, looks to be walking a tightrope. His ball-striking has been alarmingly poor for some time now, a real concern given that his early success on the European Tour had much to do with quality iron play, and at 116th of 120 measures in strokes-gained approach, problems persist this week.
Two under-par rounds might do wonders for his confidence, but given the way they've been put together, I have my doubts. He's gained over five strokes with the putter so far - enough to be clear at the top of that particular statistic - and while he is a good putter, it's unlikely he's going to carry on in this vein.
Throw in the pressure any player will feel when they've so badly struggled to form, and I suspect he could be in for a fairly miserable afternoon. If that is the case, we only need Pieters to avoid the big numbers. Like I said, if you can stomach it.
Pieters is odds-on and I'm happy enough to double him up with SHANE LOWRY, who can take care of Jhonattan Vegas.
An opening 65 was a fine way for Vegas to begin what's a rare start on the European Tour, but he went backwards from a similar position in the Farmers Insurance Open last week and that was also the case in The American Express, where rounds of 70 and 71 saw him fall down the leaderboard.
Lowry has been a little unfortunate this week, notably when making bogey at the final hole of the first round after an approach which looked set to leave him a good eagle chance, and this is fundamentally a good test for him. Royal Greens has clearly matured and, while the efforts of Perez, Green and Paratore confirm the advantage remains in the hands of the bombers, there are wind specialists galore in the top 10.
Come the end of the week, expect Open champion Lowry to be inside the top 10 himself and he can start that move on Saturday.
Posted at 1750 GMT on 31/01/30
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