Free betting tips: Ben Coley's CIMB Classic preview

Golf

Thu October 12, 2017 · 7y ago

Charl Schwartzel gets the vote from Ben Coley to upstage favourite Justin Thomas in this week's CIMB Classic.

If the Justin Thomas who won the PGA Championship, who took the FedEx Cup and who was deservedly named PGA Tour Player of the Year turns up in the CIMB Classic, the rest may be playing for second.

It’s two years since Thomas won his first professional title in this event and one year since he defended it. Clearly, he’s an altogether more dangerous beast now and odds of 9/2 for a hat-trick are perfectly fair if you believe that the prospect of achieving that rare feat is enough to keep the 24-year-old fully focused.

I for one am not convinced that it is. Prior to the Presidents Cup, Thomas confirmed that he’s aware how difficult it will be to live up to his own revised expectations in 2018 and plans to spend some of the off-season counselling Jordan Spieth and Tiger Woods on the issue. If he’s not sure how he’ll get motivated for majors and the rest, it’s hard to see how he deals with another CIMB Classic.

"I'm excited to not know where my clubs are for two weeks and just put them somewhere in my house and just let them sit there," he added in New Jersey and there must be a chance that Thomas is here chiefly to fulfil his obligations as a two-time defending champion.

Any vulnerability in the favourite would make this a fine opportunity for Hideki Matsuyama, second only to Thomas in scoring average here over the last two years having broken 70 eight times in succession, but the Japanese was out of sorts at the Presidents Cup and I’d rather side with team-mate Charl Schwartzel.

The South African is used to playing through to December and was late returning to action at the start of the year as he felt his way back to full fitness. In other words, he’s fresher than most having had just the 19 starts and that could be a big positive under the energy-sapping conditions he’s familiar with here in Malaysia.

Schwartzel was sixth at TPC Kuala Lumpur on the European Tour in 2012 having stepped straight off the plane from Augusta and improved from a poor start to finish 19th in his sole start in the CIMB Classic, when arriving from Perth.

This time he’s had a fortnight break since the Presidents Cup, from which he signed off with an impressive singles victory over Matt Kuchar in one of the better-quality matches on Sunday afternoon.

Schwartzel need only improve a tad on his recent PGA Tour form to be a huge factor in this small field given that he was inside the top 30 in all three FedEx Cup Playoff starts, and his no-cut form offers plenty of encouragement with top-five finishes in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, Cadillac Championship and HSBC Champions.

We know he operates best on tree-lined courses, his two PGA Tour wins having come at Augusta National and Copperhead, and the latter in particular is relevant given that Kuala Lumpur specialists Gary Woodland and Ryan Moore both go really well there.

Schwartzel also boasts a blemish-free record in the Wydham Championship, scene of Moore’s first PGA Tour win and another tree-lined track, and when his next PGA Tour win does come it’ll likely be at a venue like this week’s.

An aggressive, world-class iron player whose putting has improved significantly in 2017, Schwartzel looks a rock-solid each-way bet in a field which carries little depth.

Speaking of the Wyndham Championship, Rafa Cabrera Bello is another to have gone well there and this looks like a fine opportunity for his first win on the PGA Tour.

Like Schwartzel, he boasts plenty of experience of a golf course used regularly on the European Tour. He’s twice finished inside the top five in the Malaysian Open and also took 10th in this event a year ago, ranking third for greens hit and struggling with putter in hand.

Again like Schwartzel, Cabrera Bello has in fact been putting really nicely this year and remains among the top 25 on the European Tour in birdie average – no surprise for a player whose low rounds during the week of wins read 60, 61, 63 and 64 (twice).

I wonder too whether it’s significant that Cabrera Bello has chosen to play here and not the Italian Open. He is right in the mix for Race To Dubai honours and to sacrifice valuable points both in that battle and the Ryder Cup race suggests some kind of motivation to venture to Malaysia one week before the Valderrama Masters in his native Spain.

Given that he once said of Kuala Lumpur "this is one of my favourite courses of the year", I expect Cabrera Bello recognises the opportunity here even if his hand is being forced by some kind of sponsorship deal.

Finally, I strongly suspect he’ll benefit from a break. Cabrera Bello fired a closing 65 at TPC Boston to make the third event of the Playoffs but warned in the second of them that he was running on fumes, which explains why he started well in Chicago but had no more to give thereafter.

As a player with a strong record when back from a Christmas break, I can envisage Cabrera Bello returning in the sort of form which saw him gain a deserved, overdue success in Scotland back in July. That should make him a big player at a course which rewards his level of ball-striking.

Speaking of ball-striking, James Hahn has led the field in greens hit in each of the last two renewals of this tournament and must be considered, but his two PGA Tour wins have come under much tougher scoring conditions and I expect at some stage he’ll be left behind.

Stewart Cink is one to consider for a first-round leader bet given that he likes the course and led early in Memphis this summer, one of several examples of how fast he can start, while it will be fascinating to see how Malaysia’s Gavin Green does despite being shockingly underpriced one week after a lower-grade win.

However, in a guaranteed shootout I’m going to rely on the birdie average charts to again point the way, as they have done with the only two players to win this event at Kuala Lumpur.

First, Luke List did enough in California last week to earn another chance at similar odds.

List has a geographical connection with Moore, hailing as he does from Seattle, but is otherwise a very different player – yet I think he might just take to Kuala Lumpur at the first time of asking.

For starters, Woodland has shown that power is a big asset here if used correctly while List is among the many big-hitters whose best form has often come at slightly more nuanced courses, such as when second in Mississippi at around this time last year and seventh in Mexico.

The latter – a fine top-10 finish in the OHL Classic – may be especially relevant given that similar grass is in play at both venues, while List’s performances in South America on the Web.com Tour at least hint at the prospect of travel bringing out his best golf.

List was 11th in birdie average on the PGA Tour last season and his return to action in the Safeway Open now smacks of a pipe opener. While he drove the ball superbly all week, his best iron play and putting both came on Sunday and he seems sure to improve for the effort.

Without doubt a likely candidate when it comes to potential breakout stars of the year ahead, List can adapt to the unique challenges of this event and make a run at his first title.

Finally, Cameron Smith is worth a bet at upwards of 50/1.

This Australian was fifth here in 2014, the last of seven consecutive top-10 finishes and without doubt the pick of them, given that it was in fact his PGA Tour debut.

There was further promise in his sole subsequent appearance and since then he’s become a PGA Tour winner of sorts, taking the revamped Zurich Classic alongside team-mate Jonas Blixt.

Smith will of course want to validate that success with one on his own and to that end encouragement can be found in Europe, where Lucas Bjerregaard took the GolfSixes with a partner but bettered that effort to land the Portugal Masters recently.

I don’t imagine Smith has been paying too much attention to all that, but it is evidence that success breeds success and anyone who stuck with the Zurich long enough will know that his contribution was impressive under pressure.

More relevant here are his strong birdie average stats (31st last season) and wealth of experience in Asia, where he cut his teeth as a professional, while his seventh in the Wyndham and back-to-form 12th in the BMW Championship suggest that the CIMB Classic comes just at the right time.

There has been an Australian in the frame in each of the four renewals here at TPC Kuala Lumpur and Smith looks well-equipped to at least match his own effort three years ago.