Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the Cazoo Classic

Golf betting tips: Cazoo Classic

4pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 16/1 (BoyleSports, Betway 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Wilco Nienaber at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Bradley Dredge at 175/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Julian Suri at 200/1 (Betway 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Dave Coupland at 300/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In the pantheon of European Tour ridiculousness, a special place is reserved for the 2009 European Open, played at the London Club's Heritage Course. Throughout the build-up, word was that this would be go big or go home, a year on from Ross Fisher beating Sergio Garcia by seven, and with a yardage which was, at the time, beefy. There had been rain around, too, and everything looked in place for a repeat — perhaps by Fisher himself, or even Rory McIlroy.

Christian Cevaer was having none of it. Without a top-30 finish all year and tumbling ever closer to 500th in the world, the short-hitting, slow-playing Frenchman wore out the face of his hybrid to win by a single shot, with two massive drivers among the three players who tied for second. He did so with a closing 74 as this course, raised up in Kent and exposed to the elements, provided a serious test and an utterly bizarre outcome.

Fisher had won in 20-under, benefitting, he felt, from turning up late and not having a proper look round. Innocence of the hazards which are dotted around this thoroughly modern course really was bliss. Still, this was no shootout: not only did the Englishman win by seven, but he was fully 13 shots clear of fifth place. Everyone under-par made the top 25 with the course having played fiery, despite being vulnerable to Fisher's prodigious driving.

It's hard to take anything from these two events except that an open mind is important. At 7,327 yards and having matured in the interim, the Jack Nicklaus-designed Heritage should again prove a good test, but there are three if not four reachable par-fives, a par-four which could be set up for drives aimed at the green, and the weather seems likely to behave itself. That fact will comfort everyone here, but especially those who found themselves on the wrong side of a five-shot draw bias in Scotland last week.

Who is the best bet in the Cazoo Classic?

Truth be told there are few here who can be called convincing, and that in itself is partly why I find BERND WIESBERGER hard to get away from at 16/1.

The Austrian has a heck of a lot in his favour. Most importantly, he is not only the best player in the field, but the most prolific. Now an eight-time European Tour winner, four of those have come in the last 27 months, at a strike rate of one in 13. Take out the 18 tournaments which were either majors, WGCs or PGA Tour events, and on the European Tour he's won four of his last 34 starts, all in better fields than this.

• Click here to back Wiesberger with Sky Bet

Three of them came in a burst through the summer of 2019 and into autumn, and there will have been a tinge of regret that injury the year before meant this career-best form didn't come with a Ryder Cup place. Now, thanks to another twist of fate, he knows that if he can repeat the trick and follow up his second Denmark win, Padraig Harrington will have to consider him strongly — that's if he doesn't qualify by right.

Having been invited along to be in the team room in Paris, the Ryder Cup is right at the top of Wiesberger's priority list and that's why he's here, in a fairly modest event, ready for a final push which concludes at Wentworth. Motivation is absolutely massive for a player of his standing, especially when teeing up in low-key tournaments on the back of a major championship, and he's also playing for a return to the word's top 50.

As for the course, on that we have to hope it proves suitable, but there's a sneaky hint that it should be. Typically, Nicklaus layouts are considered 'second-shot', a point underlined by the fact that the best iron player in the sport, Collin Morikawa, has already won on three of them. Wiesberger hasn't yet, but his best major performance came when he was in the final group at Valhalla, a Nicklaus design, and he was runner-up at Gleneagles on another.

Right now he ranks second only to Mikko Korhonen in this field when it comes to strokes-gained approach, and his numbers have been sensational from Himmerland on. There he ranked third, and he's since been 14th, second and seventh, while at the US Open he was on course for even better had he managed to scrape through to the weekend.

Wiesberger has won four times after a fortnight away, so the three-week gap since a decent Open isn't really a worry, and he's won a couple of times right after a major for good measure. He's clearly the one they all have to beat and in a field like this one probably deserves to be more a 10-12/1 shot than the 16 and 18/1 we can take. We've had some surprises lately and may get another, but the favourite should go really well.

I suspect Andy Sullivan is playing a little better than his results imply, especially having been caught in the worst of the weather last week, and he's clear second best. In fact the four-time European Tour winner, who won on home soil last summer and has thrived when his army of fans have followed him to Portugal, and who led the strokes-gained approach stats in 2020, is quite hard to leave out at 22/1.

The other two I considered towards the front of the betting were Victor Perez and Ryan Fox. Perez would've made the staking plan had he shown any signs of encouragement in Memphis, but it was instead his worst recorded tee-to-green performance and I can't overlook it. The positive though is that when he's played on the European Tour he's generally left his PGA Tour form behind, including as recently as the Scottish Open when eighth through 54 holes.

Fox meanwhile is a long, excellent driver who plays exposed courses well, but it's been a busy, jet-setting fortnight, and his approach play has been abysmal. That means he has room to improve on some eye-catching efforts, but it also suggests his game isn't where it may need to be and he's not exactly one for maximum faith at the best of times.

There are ifs and buts with so many here, including the Danish trio and Sean Crocker, who can win on the European Tour if he borrows someone else's short-game. Perhaps a few weeks at home in Florida will have helped but while the Heritage will offer him some cheap birdies, it's anyone's guess as to whether he'll hole anything like his share and there's just too much uncertainty to get involved this time.

Can lightning strike twice at the Heritage?

For that reason my other selections are all bigger prices and all come with negatives as you'd expect. For BRADLEY DREDGE, the biggest is that he is more Cevaer than Fisher, and I am a little worried the course could be a bit much for him.

However, it might pay not to dismiss that shock result altogether and if that's the case, the ties between these two golfers are remarkable.

Go through Cevaer's European Tour record and his other top-10 finishes came at the following courses, most of them exposed: Pula, Crans-sur-Sierre, Doha, Arlandastad, Santo da Serra, Kennemer, Fuerteventura, Valderrama, Forest of Arden and Gleneagles, the latter designed by Nicklaus and touched upon earlier.

• Click here to back Dredge with Sky Bet

Dredge has not only won at two of these — Santo da Serra and Crans — but he has a top-10 finish at every single one of the others. That includes eighth on his one and only try at Arlandastad, fifth on his one and only try at Fuerteventura, fifth and 21st from two starts at Pula, a runner-up finish at Gleneagles, and fourth at Gut Larchenhof which, for whatever it's worth, is also a Nicklaus design.

That alone is interesting enough for me, but there are a couple of other factors which may be in his favour. Firstly, he's back from injury and aiming at the Seniors Tour, a la Richard Bland, and has played well in his last three starts: 28th in Wales, making the halfway cut in Northern Ireland, and 38th last week.

His performance in Scotland should be marked up as he was on the wrong side of the draw, and he should've taken great heart from the way he fought from two-over through three to make the weekend. It ended badly, with three shots going over his final four holes on Sunday, but across those middle rounds and for much of the final one he played some good stuff.

Then there's the added boost of Stephen Dodd winning the Senior Open Championship a couple of weeks ago. Dodd was Dredge's partner when Wales won the World Cup in 2005, and given that the latter has been looking towards life on the 50-plus circuit, he'll have enjoyed seeing what's possible through Dodd's brilliant display.

If he can stay competitive off the tee, Dredge might just make quotes around the 175-200/1 mark look generous.

Among the other eye-catchers in Scotland was DAVE COUPLAND, who battled back from four-over to finish at level par and miss the cut by a single shot. He'd have made it with a birdie at the par-five 18th.

Another who was on the wrong side of the draw, that was a commendable effort and followed making the halfway cut in the ISPS Handa World Invitational, which in turn came on the back of a missed cut on the number at Celtic Manor. In many ways it's been a frustrating run since the US Open, but there are signs he's closer than his results suggest.

What I particularly like is that he hit the ball really well last week, pretty much as good as he has for the first 36 holes of a tournament. Unfortunately for Coupland, who is one of the best putters on the circuit, his short-game cost him three and a half shots and he simply cannot compete if that's the case.

• Click here to back Coupland with Sky Bet

As far as the putter goes, expect a return to his usual standards and if he can maintain those long-game numbers, suddenly we have a player who can be very competitive.

What's more, his form in England since the start of last summer reads 53-15-9-28-3, the last in that sequence coming at the Belfry where he holed some remarkable putts for his best ever European Tour finish. Coupland had previously credited those good finishes in 2020 to his EuroPro days, during which he won twice on home soil, and for now he seems far more likely to produce here than anywhere else.

He's not necessarily the type of player I like to side with — to hit the frame he'll probably need to be among the top five in putting — but that effort at Fairmont St Andrews shouldn't be underestimated and he's a big price.

Alvaro Quiros has course form, power, class and some massively improved performances in his favour, but the 250/1 has gone, the 200/1 is going, and he'll have to be left out in favour of JULIAN SURI.

The American has missed seven of his last eight cuts, and on the one occasion he made the weekend it happened to be in an event which included a second cut, which he also missed. It's definitely been a frustrating run, made worse by last week's draw and a series of slow starts which have left him with too much to do.

• Click here to back Suri with Sky Bet

Still, he shot 75-69 to narrowly miss out at Fairmont St Andrews, where he was one of the best of the bunch on Thursday afternoon only to finish 6-5, and it was the putter which cost him. Off the tee he's made big strides lately, cutting down the ruinous mistakes, and his approach play was positive for the first time since May.

Back then he led the field in the Canary Islands so the potential is there for him to piece everything together and we should be able to rely on short-game improvements, as he's been one of the best around for a while now. The long-game, all power but lacking direction, has needed tightening up but he says he's getting there, and the numbers suggest he is too.

He's certainly played a lot of good golf when it's been a little too late and a better start could see him do some damage on a modern course which I do think will favour the big hitter.

Finally and with trepidation, I'll chance WILCO NIENABER at 80/1.

One of the longest in the sport, Nienaber's potential is clear to everyone and so is his volatility, which runs through every part of his game. Last week for example he drove it terribly in high-class company, whereas on his previous start he was third in the field. His putting followed a similar path, too.

Still, it's not that hard to excuse his performance in a WGC and before that, 31st in the Barbasol Championship is solid form, as was 14th in the Palmetto back in May when not far off winner Garrick Higgo in an event which included Dustin Johnson, Tyrrell Hatton and Harris English.

A winner back home in March, it's awfully difficult to know what to expect from Nienaber but he's spent a lot of time staying and playing in England and was fourth on his first tour-level start in five months at last year's English Championship, and then played reasonably well at the Belfry.

Back at this level, if he can drive it as he did not just in the Palmetto and the Barbasol but also the US Open, where he ranked seventh, Nienbar could have a lot of opportunities at a course where he can likely reach all four par-fives and drive one of the par-fours.

That's the hope and for one so talented, it's worth accepting the risk that he bombs in return for a big price, especially as his approach play on Sunday was eighth best in a field of world-class players. Hopefully he can run with it.

• Click here to back Nienaber with Sky Bet

Posted at 1920 BST on 09/08/21

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