Golf betting tips: Austrian Open final round
1.5pts e.w. John Catlin at 7/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Jacques Kruyswijk at 16/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt Garrick Higgo to finish in the top five at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
After a short break and a severe change in weather (for the worse) since a warm fortnight in Kenya, the Austrian Golf Open offered a bit of a conundrum for form students: to side with the course fit, Diamond having been a regular stop over the last decade, or to move towards the power hitters with cold conditions and sparse rough potentially set to play into their hands.
Although forecasts have been bang-on, hand-warmers and bobble hats getting showcased on TV for the first time this year, there has not been the power shift which some might have expected. Instead, the course has remained the sort of positional test which had others drawing comparisons with Valderrama, some venues used for the KLM Open, and other courses which require a bit of thought and no little accuracy from the very first shot.
As recently as September, Martin Kaymer and John Catlin fought a mighty battle down the stretch at Valderrama, where Max Kieffer was fifth in 2018, and where regular Diamond contender Joost Luiten has so often been in the mix. Throw in Alejandro Canizares, who has never missed a cut at his beloved home course and has been in front here from day one, and it would be fair to say even the surprise contenders this week shouldn't perhaps be all that surprising to us.
We may not have much in the way of strokes-gained information for what's a fairly low-key event, but such data wouldn't cover the most relevant requirement thus far anyway — patience.
Saturday's third round saw a slight improvement in conditions and certainly in scoring. Nicolai von Dellingshausen, not the most renowned of players, completed a seven-under 65 to launch up the leaderboard, with local favourite Matthias Schwab not far behind. Once all the numbers were added up, Diamond played fully three shots easier than for the first round, but it was still the neat-and-tidy types who made the most of the opportunity.
For much of the day, it looked as though JOHN CATLIN might have been the only player cursing the improved conditions as he made a couple of rare errors at the ninth and 11th holes, giving away three shots having only dropped two during the first two rounds, both of which were played under more demanding conditions.
Those mistakes left the American with five shots to find but three birdies coming in helped narrow the gap to two, his iron play really beginning to fire. In fact he could so easily have birdied any or every one of the four holes on which he made pars coming in, but any sour taste was surely removed by a flag-finding approach to the difficult 18th and the simplest of twos.
Followers of Ben Coley's column will hope those closing seven holes are a portent to another big Sunday, having won the Irish Open from eighth place soon after he'd toughed it out to beat Kaymer at Valderrama. An outstanding putter, something the more frail players will suffer with, he looks a huge contender from the penultimate group and I have to join in the gamble.
Of course, former world number one Kaymer is the star name at the front and he seems as determined as ever to win on the European Tour, some seven years since he took the US Open for his second major championship. It's incredible to say that he is winless since.
However, he not only let punters down in Spain but that was after doing the same at The Belfry just seven days previous. Having then gone backwards through the final round at Saudi Arabia, he simply cannot be trusted to get it home at the prices, his missed birdie putt at the fourth and a three-putt from 15-feet at the 15th a perfect indication of what we might expect on Sunday.
Sure, it would be great to see this fine ambassador nab his first silverware since 2014 and the 50-footer at the 16th and a good par save at the last gives hope, but we can't bet sentiment and there is just the feeling that if he wins he will need help from the rest. That's perfectly possible, with few recent winners in the mix, but at the prices it has to be worth siding with Catlin to break his heart once more.
There had been some signs from Canizares that his game was returning — he led after round one in his previous start — but nothing to suggest he could hold on here for four rounds. He's done it well, exploiting the easier holes on each day and therefore able to overcome some expensive mistakes elsewhere. Whether that lasts through to the bitter end I'm not so sure, and though he's a two-time winner at this level, it has been a very long time between drinks.
Saturday's course was open to attack, suiting the likes of Marcus Armitage and JACQUES KRUYSWIJK, the former a winner in Foshan (2017 Lyoness Open winner Dylan Frittelli 5th) and with form at Joburg. He's very difficult to predict though so more attention is turned to the improving 28-year-old South African, who is also fancied to make a run at those nervy leaders.
Able to mix it with the best back home, Kruyswijk may not have played here previously but he has a sneaky 11th in the 2019 China Open, an event won by 2018 Diamond winner Mikko Korhonen. Impressing over both weekends in the recent Kenyan swing with a pair of 64s, I have to be with him in some way after those efforts saw him rise from 19th and 17th respectively to a couple of fifth-place finishes.
He did the same at Celtic Manor last year (37th to 14th) and previously at the Czech Open (37th to 14th), and this big-hitter, who attacks everything, is the sort to side with at big prices when you've a leaderboard set up like this one. It was a nasty bogey at the last but given he isn't yet proven when in front this looks perfect for him to charge and wait.
I simply can't see Keiffer winning his maiden title despite excellent scoring figures, with just four dropped shots in three holes through the first 48 before a three-putt from five feet and a loss of confidence once he saw his name upsides the lead. Most of the other potential contenders are probably too far off the pace to win although it wouldn't be a shock to see the likes of swashbuckling youngsters Schwab or GARRICK HIGGO make a charge in the final round.
Higgo was the winner of a lesser event in Portugal last year and is improving each day on his first visit to Diamond. He has birdied three of the four par-fives on each of the first four days and reminds very much of equally talented Guido Migliozzi. Long off the tee, he is brave with his putting and will win again.
It may not be from so far off the pace but given the errors shown by many of the top lot today, he could certainly make life interesting for those prepared to take the 50/1 on offer. But from five shots back, it's probably wise to give up the win part and grab a couple of extra places, with 9/2 about a top-five finish worth a small go.
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Posted at 1755 BST on 17/04/21
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