Irish Open golf: Final-round betting preview and tips

Recommended bets

• 1pt each-way Dean Burmester to win the Irish Open at 9/1
• 1pt each-way Lucas Herbert to win the Irish Open at 10/1
• 1pt each-way John Catlin to win the Irish Open at 22/1

Click here for Sky Bet's odds

For fans of tough golf courses, the cessation of wind looked to have turned the previously tough Galgorm Spa track into a reasonably benign putting contest and looking like the same again on Sunday.

However despite all the experts believing they would take it apart today, all three days have all seen around 12 holes playing over par - two days with gusts a problem - with the third cut of rough saving the course from several sub-65 scores on Saturday. Either way it is doing a better job then that at Winged Foot last week! Indeed, it was interesting to read a snippet in fellow golf columnist Steve Rawlings' preview piece quoting Alfie Plant at the Challenge Tour event held here a couple of weeks ago- '"If you feel like you're hitting your driver well, you've got to go for it and be further down in the rough. If you do take a three-wood or an iron off the tee and you do miss the fairway then you're miles back. I think, sometimes, it's worth the gamble hitting the driver." They can all thank someone that Bryson isn't playing.

Saying that, of those that can currently be said to have a genuine chance of winning tomorrow, only Dean Burmester appears in the top 50 in the current European Tour driving distance stats and whilst he could/should have finished higher at both Celtic Manor and The Belfry, he is playing much better to the eye.

The South African has always threatened to win more on the Tour than just the Tshwane Open, a co-sanctioned event back home, but that he has a further six wins is enough to confirm he doesn't have an issue getting it done. The 31-year-old rarely hides his frustration when missing a putt and that is probably his biggest frailty but he has been in the top two for strokes gained putting over his last four events - proven late with that long birdie putt on 18 today - and with that driving prowess, he really should be a major contender when it counts, especially if the wind turns South as indicated by Sky Golf.

Fellow South African, Justin Harding, has just entered the fray after a birdie at the last but was poor in contention at Close House and he isn't one for the mortgage when in contention whilst the same can be said of Scott Hend, a great winner in his time, but now probably too erratic and by his own admission not playing well despite the score.

Of those having to take longer clubs into the greens, three-time Challenge Tour winner Aaron Rai is another to comment on the rough around the course. Interviewed today he mentioned he 'hasn't seen rough like this on the European Tour' meaning his lack of length is offset by his fairway-finding and short game prowess, and is another that won't fade away when it hots up. Not only did he win thrice on the lower level but proved he is happy in front when leading from the gate and holding off a decent enough field in Hong Kong containing a charging Matt Fitzpatrick.

Like a few pundits, Rai was selected on our @LostForePod podcast this week and I've been a fan of the two-gloved player for a few years. He has been playing well through the English swing - 10th at the Hero before 15th at The Belfry - both events seeing him take a couple of leaps forward through the field before a step back when it mattered. It looked like he was stopping all that toing and froing as he made birdies and par-saves through the third round but then made a bizarre decision to lay up on the par five 10th and then missed a simple par putt on the following hole. Whilst that would worry me he struck straight back with an excellent birdie on the 12th and again on the 15th. He isn't going to go backwards quickly for sure, is methodical and he has that steely ambition of a winner (two wins from the front) but the pre-event liabilities look to have been factored into a quote of 7/4.

Given Scandinavians traditionally turn up at all the 'home' Opens, it is no deal to see Oscar Lengden, Rikard Karlberg and Joakim Lagergren in with some sort of chance tomorrow. The first named is a multiple winner at a lower level and played very well today in readiness to step up, Karlberg another but with more consistent form at all the right places but it is the last-named that is of real interest.

Winner around here in 2014 on the Challenge Tour when a slightly easier course, the 28-year-old came into the event off a closing third behind George Coetzee in Portugal and has some impressive recent stats. Top seven in all-round ranking through Valderrama and Portugal, that level comes with a strange mix of individual figures. One day he is gaining six shots on the greens, the next he is finding 11 shots on the field tee-to-green!

Stats, lies and damn statistics but he is clearly playing good enough golf at this level and I would have liked to be with him in some way especially given his terrific form in Scotland, all which ties in with events in either Ireland. He messed up his final hole today but I'll be watching him closely tomorrow for a final day charge. Whatever happens he is well worth looking out for next week.

With nobody taking a stranglehold on the tournament there are probably a dozen legitimate contenders including the likes of Jordan Smith (would be a pick at 33-1 as he is playing terrifically well but generally putting like a drain), and both Lucas Herbert and John Catlin hold more obvious claims.

The American 29-year-old found today's easier conditions somewhat more tasking than the first two days, no surprise given his grinding win at Valderrama and it may be he may need more testing conditions to be seen at his best. Saying that, he is a demon putter on most days and I do expect him to give himself and take plenty of chances tomorrow. Just four off the lead, he showed his mettle by finishing eighth in Portugal just days after the torment in Spain and the market still probably hasn't caught up with him.

Also fancied to make a run is the improving Australian, a brilliant play-off winner in Dubai and recently 31st at the U.S Open, who certainly won't mind any wind. Whilst starting the event slowly Herbert has only made one error through holes seven and 18 in all three rounds - a double bogey on the 13th on Thursday - and many of his best form reads better than the majority of those in contention. Improving as the week goes on with 71 and a couple of 67s and with no pressure to prove himself, he is another that may be overpriced, even that odds-against a top five finish. His three-ball with Burmester and Jazz Janewattananond definitely look a major threat to the front trio .

As for that third man, Janewattananond was touted throughout the golfing world when turning professional at 15 years of age and a subsequent six victories haven't given his fans any cause for concern. Now 24, he was impressive through the first 15 holes before posting his first bogey of the day, closely followed by another. Whilst this is clearly easier than the PGA events he has contested since the return he hasn't been in the mix since January and he can't be a confident pick given the lack of evidence as to how he will react.

The Challenge Tour played here just a couple of weeks ago when virtual unknown Tyler Koivisto proved victorious but I don't think we will have a shock of that magnitude tomorrow even if pre-event 200-1 shot Maverick Antcliff is currently in a challenging position.

It's probably wrong to say a three-time winner on the China Tour can't win (they all 'can') but whilst his approach play is consistently above grade, the form with the flat stick is nothing to be amazed at. Obviously playing well this week, and with a field-leading 15 birdies and an eagle this week, he looks to be over-achieving with the putter (regularly outside the top 100) and this will be a big ask even if fast greens are of no real hindrance to an antipodean. He saved par on the last with a terrific putt but this all probably a bit much and he will no doubt be put under pressure early by the closers.

On a personal note, it is great to see Toby Tree play well this week. Always capable of terrific sporadic rounds it is a matter of putting it together through an entire event and he fought hard today through a poor first half. He holed a good putt for birdie on 18 after an average lag putt and whilst this is a tough ask, he has plenty of sub-70 final rounds and is a potential top-5 finish at a big price.

Posted at 2025 BST on 25/09/20

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