Golf betting tips: John Deere Classic
2pts e.w. Kevin Na to win at 9/1 (BetVictor, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Let’s be honest for anyone English reading this preview the final round of the John Deere Classic will probably not rate that highly on their list of ‘must watch’ sporting events tonight as all eyes will of course be glued to the action at Wembley (follow link for Sporting Life's full Italy v England preview).
For those at TPC Deere Run, however, the outcome of the most anticipated football match this side of the Atlantic for many a year will not be given a second thought as a host of the PGA Tour’s lesser names get a chance to bag a life-changing victory.
Known as one of the lower-scoring events on tour, this year's edition has once again produced a feast of birdies and with 14 players within four shots of the lead heading into Sunday, even with the field lacking a little in star quality, we look set for another dramatic final round to follow up the play-offs we've seen over the past fortnight.
Top of the pile heading into day four on 16-under and one shot clear of the field is Sebastian Munoz.
Munoz, who opened up the week with a round of 63 before adding a pair of 67s, has built his success this week around a really solid iron game, which sees him lead the field in approach play and rank third for the week from tee to green.
The Colombian closed out his lone tour success to date at the Sanderson Farms Championship after birdieing the 72nd hole to force a play-off and, having also held the 54-hole lead on that occasion, he should certainly be comfortable in his position today.
While I would not be surprised to see Munoz get the job done, with such a jam-packed leaderboard I'm loathed to take anyone at ‘win only’ odds of 5/2, so am happy to take the 28-year-old on at those prices.
Keeping Munoz company today and starting one shot behind him on 15-under will be Brandon Hagy. Hagy arrived in Illinois on the back of a strong sixth-placed finish in Detroit last week and he has used his power off the tee to build on that this week as he closes in on a maiden tour success.
Hagy has made only one bogey all week, which came at the 11th on Saturday after a sloppy three putt, and the 30-year-old will be confident he can go one better than his second at the Honda earlier this season and bag his first tour title.
My concern with him, though, is that the putting stroke, which sees him ranked 143rd on tour in that department this season, started to look frail on Saturday and the flat stick may just let him down when it matters most.
Making up the penultimate group and starting two shots behind on 14-under will be Scott Brown and Adam Long, who were the main beneficiaries of ‘moving day’, shooting 63 and 64 respectively to vault themselves into contention.
As we know, though, following up one low round with another is never easy and Brown, who leads the field in putting this week after gaining over 4.5 strokes on the greens on Saturday, may particularly struggle to back Saturday’s performance up.
Also starting the day on 14-under will be Ryan Moore, Cameron Champ and KEVIN NA.
Moore, a former champion here and who's missed only three fairways all week, has been battling a back injury since last fall and having been unable to build any real momentum this season he finds himself in danger of missing the Fedex Cup Play Offs for the first time.
A win today then for him would of course take care of everything, but having been a player who has always telegraphed his successes with a string of strong performances prior, I suspect he may just come up short. Preference, then, in this trio goes to Champ and Na and it's the latter who marginally gets my vote.
A five-time winner on tour with four of his successes coming within the past three years, Na is by far the most prolific of late on the leaderboard and my suspicion is that when the Sunday nerves start to show he will be the one who hangs the toughest.
Click here to back Kevin Na with Sky Bet
The 37-year-old was in confident mood in his post round interview on Saturday, saying that his putter had clicked this week, something backed up by him sitting fourth on the greens through the first three rounds, and that as long as his ball striking was basically half-decent on Sunday he had a good chance.
Rather than relying on one great day, Na has been consistent this week, posting rounds of 67, 66 and 66 so far and something similar again may well be good enough. Add to this that the odds on offer give us an each-way chance of making a decent profit should he just come up short and Na is the one for me.
In an event that has seen two players come from four back and one from six back on Sunday in the past 10 years, the possibility of someone posting a number early from off the pace cannot be ruled out and Russell Henley and Patrick Rodgers, who both start the day five back and who both have the touch of class to produce something really low, do make some each-way appeal at the odds too.
Meanwhile, for those looking for a two-ball bet the standout 23/20 available with Unibet for Brian Stuard to see off Camillo Villegas is worth looking at in what is basically a toss of a coin.
In the end, though, on an evening when eyes will inevitably be flitting from one screen to another, I will stick with just the one bet on Na and trust that he can, in his own small but significant way, bring it home.
Published at 1000 BST on 11/07/21
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