European Tour: Italian Open golf betting preview and tips ahead of final round

Recommended bets

3pts Adrian Otaegui to beat Yikeun Chang at 8/13

1pt Canter/Colsaerts in any order at 10/1

1pt Canter/Arnaus in any order at 18/1

0.5pt Canter/Weisberger in any order at 28/1

0.5pt Canter/Kaymer in any order at 28/1

This may have been a column about nothing much, but after three rounds of the Italian Open, the list of potential winners remains longer than some of us would have liked.

Whilst in no way expecting anything like a repeat of his first-round 60, halfway leader Laurie Canter looked to perhaps have let a golden opportunity slip through his fingers on Friday and Saturday and has brought around 15 other players back into an event that was almost dead.

Continuing a recent run of excellent driving and iron play, the 30-year-old Englishman might have been going into the final round in command after reaching 16-under through just 27 holes, but a mix of nerves, unusually average driving and bad luck meant that he played the following 27 holes in three-under, several shots below the average of the field.

Sure, drives off the pylons, mud balls and yada yada but this wasn't a tough gig on Friday and a resulting slow start through his third round means that followers of Ben Coley's preview column sit a little less comfortably than might and perhaps even should have been the case.

You can't help bad luck such as he had on the par-five fourth today but he looked terribly nervous and frustrated at times and it is to his huge credit that this was all shrugged off within half an hour. Finishing with three straight birdies thanks to three quality approaches was very pleasing and it will be fascinating to see how he copes with being in the joint lead with that experience behind him.

Ranking top-10 in strokes-gained-tee-to-green for much of summer and visually eye-catching with his long irons and short stick through the final rounds at Celtic Manor and Portugal, Canter was also one of our more confident selections on the @LostForeWords podcast. Whilst a LFW/Coley combined win would be a first I am hopeful that those efforts give Canter an idea of what it is like to be well in contention. He impressed when chasing George Coetzee all the way at the Dom Pedro Victoria course in Portugal and will find a similar pin-seeking course tomorrow.

Ranked highly in par-four and par-five performances I certainly fancy him to comfortably beat the other joint-leader and it may be to his advantage that he won't get involved in a driving distance competition, likely leaving his playing partner a club or two behind. The first few holes will tell a lot but he wasn't at his best on Saturday yet still recorded a three-under 69 - he looks a very solid favourite on a course that clearly suits.

Day three was certainly a change to earlier conditions and the wind changed many of these early holes from birdie chances to ones where par is very acceptable. The par-three fifth, for example, playing just over par for the first two days played near half-a-shot over today and caused big problems for the second-last group with last week's winner Adrian Otaegui taking five, and J.B Hansen six. It is unlikely to be as difficult on Sunday but remains a hole where one mistake can multiply.

While that was going on another of our podcast selections, Dean Burmester was plodding along nicely without error and the occasional gained shot. His birdie/eagle on the opening couple of par-fives were clinical and he deserved more than being just four-under through 11, made more frustrating when missing a two-footer for par on 12.

He looks back to his best and the wetter greens mean we don't have to put up with him falling to the greens when an inch short of a long birdie putt - in fact he's talked about trying to be less dramatic on the course. Of course it is great to see emotion and he has been hard to predict because of that, but I reckon he is just a roll or two away from a really low round and he looks in a perfect position to chase, especially if sticking to his word attitude-wise.

Burmester looks a potential threat to Canter and perhaps even more so than the man alongside him, Ross McGowan, who has stepped up on a quietly consistent run to put himself among the big-hitters.

The veteran Englishman looked like dropping away after three dropped shots through the tricky front nine but played superb golf from then on, putting like a champion as he has all week, including from off the green. After a bogey-free, four-under back nine it is churlish to think he can't win tomorrow but he is likely to play from 40 yards and a couple of clubs behind his playing partners and will struggle from there under pressure.

This is a return to form that couldn't have been predicted and surely a top-10 would be a much more achievable target from here. With plenty looking to go past him tomorrow perhaps a lay of a top-five finish is in order should any kind of liquidity emerge on the exchanges.

Talking of length, formerly the number one driver in Europe, Nicolas Colsaerts, now says he refuses to or can't get involved in driving contests and goes about his business with little worry while still retaining class.

Always a good wind player over a long track the conditions today were right up his 'allez' and in fairness his equal best-of-the-day 66 could have been three shots better. As befits a bogey-free round, he seemed to have birdie putts at every hole and will be a massive danger if repeating that approach play though he is at the stage of his career where it is hard to tell how he will play from one round to the next.

He is a best price of 9/1 but I think it might be wiser playing on the exchange given he gets first dibs on holes three, four, and six, all birdie chances. I can't see him straying too far away from the top five all day and his round with fellow slugger Burmester will be a fascinating watch - potential brilliance or carnage!

We must have been on the same juice last weekend as, once again, both Ben and the pod are on Adri Arnaus and he looks a massive danger despite starting the final round five shots off the pace.

If he is going to break that European Tour duck it is as likely in Italy as anywhere given his two Alps Tour wins in the country. Long off the tee and with an exceptional iron performance in his bag, it is always about the short stick with him and it is that which has let the side down a couple of times over recent months, as well as some decidedly poor chipping and pitching. He's a short-game from leaving this grade behind.

Martin Kaymer and Bernd Wiesberger are two class acts not yet out of this, but they will need help from the leaders and only one of them looks like obliging. For that reason, with McGowan perhaps set to struggle and Burmester not one to be relied upon, there looks to be some value in siding with Canter in Sky Bet's dual forecast markets in the expectation that the biggest threat may arrive from one of those put forward as off-the-pace threats.

I'm struggling to find others that can legitimately win but the likes of huge-hitting Adrian Meronk, Tapio Pulkkanen and Wil Besseling are bound to create eagle chances on the shorter holes and could have a say in top-10 wagers, but will likely need help to earn their own breakthroughs.

Most of the final round pairings look a tad tough to predict but last week's winner Adrian Otaegui looks on a different planet to Yikeun Chang and Paddy Power/Betfair's 8/13 is worth a good go.

Until the fifth hole on Saturday the Spaniard was on my list as one of the main dangers to the lead overnight but that tricky par-three seemed to curtail any effort until birdies on the two easy holes down the stretch. He boasts final rounds in the 60s (63/69/68/66) from four of his last six Sundays and final rounds of 67/67/68 in Italy, and the only real concern would be that the gas tank empties, which doesn't worry me unduly.

Chang looks inferior by a long way and latest form in Europe consists of a withdrawal at the Irish Open preceded by missed cuts. I go 2/5 so anything better should be backed with confidence. Unfortunately, you may have to talk to your bookmaker - BoyleSports have Otaegui in an 18-hole match with Jorge Campillo which isn't as appealing.

Back at the top, given McGowan looks vulnerable I'm happy to take a chance on the forecast perms but, like many readers of this, the main aim for the day is to see Canter over the line.

Small stakes, bigger prayers.

Posted at 1950 BST on 24/10/20

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