European Tour: UK Championship golf in-play betting preview ahead of final round

Recommended bets

0.5pt e.w. Jorge Campillo at 25/1 (1/4 1,2,3)

2.5pts Hao-Tong Li to win his two-ball at 10/11

As befits the great British Bank Holiday, wind and rain have made The Belfry a tough place to be over the last three days. Rain they can cope with (even if the course needed a break from the torrential stuff on day one) but the gusts are proving harder to cope with, and its forecast return could make for fun and games in the final round.

Given he has never before won on the European Tour, and hasn't lifted a trophy since a minor home win in 2011, South African Justin Walters performed superbly on his way to a three-under 69 on Saturday. Extremely accurate in all respects and scrambling well, the likelihood is that if he repeats that number on Sunday he will win. However, not only has he not won for an extremely long time, he comes here having missed the cut in four of the last five outings since the lockdown, with only a mid-table 39th at the first of the Celtic Manor events 'spoiling' the full house.

It is hard to believe that the 39-year-old has suddenly found something from the depths to be able to play such improved golf and there are many things against the current 9/4 favourite.

Since that win over nine years ago, Walters has been in the final group three times without success, falling further behind the eventual champion on every occasion. He is also scrambling like a demon this week and that is hard to believe given his scrambling ranking of 125th thus far in 2020 and 161st for 2019, let alone his putting stats which don't rank him better than mid-table through the last few seasons. He says he will continue to be aggressive but not only is that a dangerous tactic, put simply if he is going to win he will either play like nothing we have seen before, or be given this on a plate. At 9/4 he is absolutely a no play based on what we know.

Followers of Ben Coley's column will surely be hopeful of a return given he put up both the nearest challengers in Martin Kaymer and Benjamin Hebert in his pre-event analysis.

Both are covered in detail in the preview so won't be here but while Kaymer still retains plenty of class he has been in the final four on six occasions since 2017, winning none. Admittedly Abu Dhabi and Memorial are a level above Sunday's task, and he may well be inspired by compatriot Sophia Popov's rise to fame by winning the Women's Open, but odds of 5/2 don't leap out as being 'must bet' despite believing he is a worthy favourite in their match-up.

Alongside the German at 10-under, two behind the leader, Benjamin Hebert actually holds the best claims if we base this event as continuing the theme of a winner coming from those in-form. The problem is that whilst he leads the trio on that basis, it is based on 34th place at Forest of Arden and, okay, while a missed-cut at the PGA is pretty irrelevant here, he still hasn't put his head in front at this level despite chances in three play-offs last season and six Challenge Tour wins.

Of course any of these three may have enough of a gap over the rest to stumble over the line on a breezy and mentally tough afternoon but combined odds of around 1/4 to win make absolutely no appeal. I would rather be a cheap layer than a backer for sure and an off-the-pace champion is certainly not ruled out.

Plenty can be said of most of the challengers and it wouldn't surprise to see the likes of tidy Andy Sullivan or unpredictable JB Hansen launch themselves inside the top five by cheque time. Unfortunately they can't all be written about so straight to two with good claims from just off the pace, Rasmus Hojgaard and JORGE CAMPILLO.

Hojgaard, the 19-year-old Dane who won in Mauritius last year, is simply a master of the game - or soon will be. All courses seem to come alike and he perhaps should have added to that win at either Close House or Forest of Arden, before a late rattle for another big payday at Hanbury Manoy.

Consistently ranking top-five in finding greens it is just whether he putts as well when it counts, something he hasn't quite done when in with a chance over the last month. He missed a few coming home today but is sure to be putting pressure on the leaders from the gun having gone a bogey-free five-under through holes one to three combined thus far. The exchanges have him at around 17/1 at the moment which looks big given his ability to close off an aggressive game and that might be a better way to play him, rather than the current 12/1. It's very close though and he is only overlooked through gritted teeth.

Campillo, a winner in Qatar and Morocco, really should be suited to these windy courses requiring accuracy and has proven that with two excellent rounds sandwiching that over-par effort on Friday. Like Hogjaard, he also fits the bill from a form perspective with that closing eighth last week in Wales but in opposite fashion has made his score on holes 10 to 18, nine birdies and an eagle being superior to any of the leaders.

A player surely looking forward to next week's test at Valderrama, this is not only an excellent warm-up but a great chance for his second win of the year. I like the look of these attacking yet accurate players as a two-ball and they may well inspire each other - at twice the price of his admittedly more unexposed playing partner, Campillo is the call.

Away from the top, classy HAO-TONG LI should have far too much for Paul Waring in their two-ball and is a confident play at a shade of odds-on.

Tied 17th at the PGA is just one effort that destroys any of Waring's best but if that closing 69 at Harding Park wasn't enough, he finish with a 67 in Wales on his first outing in the UK this term to end the Welsh Open alongside Campillo in eight place. Improving each round here with scores of 74, 71 and 69, he boasts 13 birdies and an eagle against his rival's ten birdies and should be primed to cut out the mistakes.

To be fair to the Englishman, he is a fair player at best, with that win in Sweden and a host of top-five finishes in good class European Tour events, but this is his first start since Oman in March and it looks to be showing with slightly regressive rounds of 70, 67 and 76. He spoke about the fact this is a completely different set of feelings to practicing at home and arrived at the course with low expectations, and the way he finished his third round - with a messy double-bogey - suggests he may limp home.

Those wondering about opposing Richard Bland in the fourth round again will see he plays Thomas Bjorn but unfortunately I couldn't put much faith in the ex-Ryder Cup captain despite holding obvious claims, and although Matthew Jordan could be too progressive for Scott Vincent, they both had bad third rounds and their reaction to that is too unpredictable. Away from the bets, all eyes should be looking at a number of these players suited to the next week's test, at the best course in Europe.

Posted at 2100 BST on 29/08/20

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