Jason Daniels fancies Christiaan Bezuidenhout to pounce from off the pace and win the Alfred Dunhill Championship.
Recommended bets
2pts Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win at 7/2
2pts Daniel van Tonder to win his three-ball at 11/8
There may not have been enough evidence for some that this revised Leopard Creek course is a different animal to the one played pre-2018 but with no doubt it certainly is more fun to watch.
None of this winning by six, seven or 12 shots as was the case with the likes of Brandon Stone, Branden Grace and Charl Schwartzel, as David Lipsky and Pablo Larrazabal shot 68 and 75 respectively to beat their field by no more than a couple and with no shortage of drama.
However stunning, this is now a difficult and draining course but the same birdie holes turn up each year and have done so again with the par-five second, 13th and 15th holes proving scoreable alongside the short sixth, though it is surely the brilliant 18th that will provide a fittingly dramatic finish.
Last year, eventual third Wil Besseling bogeyed his 72nd to lose any chance of a play-off whilst Zander Lombard's triple-bogey eight put him out of a top-three finish. Go back to 2007 and the legend that is Ernie Els will tell of his disastrous travails as his mistake(s) handed the title to a disbelieving John Bickerton, so for all there have been some wide-margin winners here anything short of a huge lead and there's still work to be done.
As befits recent winners, tidiness off the tee leads to chances on these fast greens (at least 13 on the stimp) and the eventual top-eight in 2019 all found positive figures. It looks very similar this week with the top-10 demonstrating some fancy tee-to-green numbers thus far.
In Joburg last week the final nine players had just three European Tour victories between them and all from Brandon Stone though the title was, of course, eventually fought out between two maidens. This week only four players can boast a single win each from the top 15 on the board and there's no shortage of inexperience when it comes to getting the job at this level.
Current and slightly fortunate leader Adrian Meronk would usually be seen to best advantage where length off the tee is key and was a surprise leader given his recent woes on and around the greens. He fought back after a slow start in round three but may need help from those behind to become the first Polish player to win at this level, a feat he achieved last year on the Challenge Tour.
Meronk showed nerves rather than guile on the final hole on Saturday when laying up on 'that' par-five and at around 9/4 he can be left to win, especially playing with a couple enormously confident and talented home stars. Exchange players will surely be out to get him and a nervy final round seems likely.
It has been a very long time since a maiden has won this event (Garth Mulroy, 2011) and with two cracking locals now right on his heels, plus some big-hitting maidens who admittedly don't always inspire confidence, he has a big job on his hands to fend them all off having been in front for a long time.
Pre-event second-favourite Christiaan Bezuindehout looks to be finding top gear at just the right time and rates the bet against the leader at 7/2.
Looking to have his long-game under complete control through the first two days, he wasn't quite there early on during the third round yet finds himself within touching distance of some far less experienced players thanks to finding something from the turn and then making a birdie which surprised even him at the last.
By some way the proven class on the front page of the board, the experience of beating Jon Rahm by six shots at Valderrama and a runner-up finish in Dubai must serve him well along with his victory at the Dimension Data, where he eagled the par-five last to cement victory against George Coetzee.
He will be one player relishing the stretch after a closing 32 on Saturday and no mistakes all week on the back-nine. Having caught the eye with a final-round 67 at Joburg and played well in the Masters a week before that, he looks to be in an ideal position to pounce on any mistakes from those alongside him in the final three-ball.
The hugely promising Jayden Trey Schaper is the man closest to Meronk and this fearless teenager could do anything, potentially taking his name into global stardom.
Leagues ahead of his peers at junior level and a hugely decorated amateur, he was still with that status when contending at his home Open at the beginning of the year and he almost matched that effort with last week's top-20 finish in the Joburg Open event.
Fifth-ranked tee-to-green and leading the approach stats just seven days ago, he has continued that form and, with seemingly little in the way of nerves so far, it will be fascinating to see how he plays should he remain in with a winning chance down the stretch.
He wasn't fazed at all by playing with the highest-ranked in the field, Bezuindehout, and his eagle at the 15th was a thing of beauty. Showing patience at the last, he stuck his approach to four feet for birdie to cement a bogey-free 67 and even as a rookie makes more appeal than the current leader. It is a shame they now go off in three-balls as he would have been a very confident wager against Meronk.
Sean Crocker's putting issues would be a worry for all his promise, but the Zimbabwe-born American nonetheless looks a threat along with Adri Arnaus, with those on nine-under and below having enough to do at a course which does generally prove hard to make ground on.
Readers of Ben Coley's pre-event column will be looking to either, or both, Arnaus and Julian Suri to cement places in the top seven and both still have potential to improve their current positions. The Spaniard continues to prove a tad fallible when missing greens and, to be honest, doesn't help himself on them either. No question he has the iron game but his short approach at the last today was a shocker off an enormous tee shot and unfortunately that is typical of a player needing more of a game plan.
He did escape with a quality par but for all his putting stats are improved this week, he does have a shocker in him with the flat-stick and is unconvincing - to say the least - when chipping and pitching. Indeed if you can get on with bet365, their 3/4 about Bezuidenhout outscoring Arnaus would be a strong recommendation.
We'll focus on three-balls though and Daniel van Tonder, with five victories in the last 20 months - four in the past three - could be a steal against Scott Jamieson and Robin Roussel, especially after recording final rounds of 68, 66, 67 and 68 lately.
Further to his cause, he recorded a best-of-the-day 68 in the 2019 running here, launching himself up from 17th to sixth. He failed to fire in Joburg but is back on track this week and while three-balls make considerably less appeal than match-ups he hasn't the most arduous of tasks here.
Roussel really struggled on Saturday and his rare Sunday rounds have been rather humdrum in the main. It's easy to see that continuing and while Jamieson battled hard to salvage his round, his scores have regressed by the day and have been tied to his iron play, which was terrible during the third round.
Whatever happens, this event deserves to be the flagship of the Sunshine Tour and hopefully can attract top-class fields in the coming years. It may well be that this fascinating edition ends with the top-ranked player lifting the famous trophy.
Posted at 1645 GMT on 28/11/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
