PGA Tour: Bermuda Championship betting preview and tips from Ben Coley

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Rob Oppenheim at 100/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Kramer Hickok at 125/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Andrew Putnam at 150/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Aaron Baddeley at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Sang-moon Bae at 175/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Mark Anderson at 200/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. Rhein Gibson at 250/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Brendon Todd returns to the Bermuda Championship to defend the title he won in runaway fashion one year ago, in a story which resonated beyond the island. Seldom do these events on the PGA Tour really make waves, but Todd's journey to the yips and back again made his four-shot parade a remarkable achievement. He went on to win in Mexico a fortnight later and now sits inside the world's top 50, not yet two years from when he returned to the top 2000.

Todd will never be flashy, his methods to do with finding fairways and making putts, and that's why he sits second in the betting to Will Zalatoris in the event which will see a small number of fans return at last. Zalatoris, a Korn Ferry standout, is already operating at an extraordinarily high level, evidenced by a top-10 finish at the US Open, and his driving and approach play is as good as just about anyone in the sport. Given he does not yet hold a PGA Tour card, that's not normal, and he is no normal talent.

Almost anywhere else and Zalatoris might be a bet, even at 11/1. We saw back in February, when Viktor Hovland won in Puerto Rico, that these events are there for the taking if you're on your way to the top. Go back further and Jason Day and Jordan Spieth contended there, while last summer, Collin Morikawa's breakthrough came in the Barracuda Championship.

But the host course in Bermuda, Port Royal GC, looks to significantly nullify the advantage Zalatoris has - and that's before worrying about the weather. A short par 71, players talked last year about how irrelevant driver tends to be, with even a brash young player like Aaron Wise confessing to hitting two seven-irons to one par-four. That's virtually unheard of and may explain why he finished alongside Brian Gay, his diametric opposite.

Clearly, come the end of the week, we had a leaderboard made up of players who had hit a lot of fairways, and a one-two who had scrambled and putted really well. Knowing what we now know, it's little wonder Todd loved it, and his personal form book is worth studying for clues. Todd likes Puerto Rico, had previously won in Texas, and added a win in Mexico plus fourth place at Sea Island in the weeks following his victory.

It's these events and their courses - so often short, fiddly, vulnerable to wind and perhaps even tilted towards a little experience - that look the blueprint. Zalatoris can overcome that challenge, but can he overcome the weather? That we simply don't know. What we do know is that the forecast includes rain and winds gusting up to 25mph. On Monday, the island took a battering, trees bending for cover. At least half of the tournament itself appears under threat and though greens will be kept slow, should the worst of the weather arrive, we may not finish 72 holes on time.

Todd, who won on Monday in Mexico, will likely cope better than the rest, but I've no interest in running the risk of a short-priced selection getting done by the weather. That's why I'm leaving out the frustrating Emiliano Grillo, who otherwise rates my idea of the best option away from the front two. His ball-striking will serve him well should the wind blow and his form when dropping to this sort of level is strong. He'll probably go close all things being equal.

Still, this is all about rolling the dice and, to be frank, if you've come looking for a rock-solid bet, I'm afraid I'll have to let you down. Instead, I'm looking to focus on players who will relish rather than shirk the challenge ahead, with the seven and eight places extremely appealing for what is a poor event despite offering the works in terms of FedEx Cup points and rewards further down the line.

Top of the list is ROB OPPENHEIM, which should tell you plenty about the reality of this tournament.

This veteran 40-year-old is yet to win on the PGA Tour and probably never will, but he's played some of the best golf of his career lately and does at least look an ideal type for this test.

Five of his last six starts have been productive, with 36th at the Safeway Open and 27th at the Shriners representing a very solid start to the season. He got into the Shriners late having missed out through Monday Qualifying by a single stroke, yet more evidence of how well he's scoring. In the tournament itself, he fired rounds of 64 and 65.

Before all this he shot 62 at the Wyndham to sit second through 54 holes and bag some valuable experience in the final group, and he's not been set back by his Sunday struggle. In fact on his very next start he shot 68-66 to be eighth at halfway, before rounds of 67 and 69 through the middle of the Corales Puntacana Championship helped him climb more than 70 places after a slow start.

That 64 at the Shriners was in round one and the message is that he's in fine form, and has been since a closing 66 at the Barracuda Championship back in August.

Oppenheim's favourite course on earth is Pebble Beach and he's always enjoyed playing by the sea. He was ninth in Puerto Rico earlier this year, has been eighth at the aforementioned Pebble Beach where he played well in a US Amateur once upon a time, and has a top-10 to his name in the Bahamas via the Korn Ferry Tour.

A winner in breezy conditions on that circuit, he's better equipped for this than most and I like the fact his iron play has been really good on a couple of occasions lately. Controlling your ball flight in the wind could be key and, like Todd, the fact he usually gives up distance and often strokes off the tee is less of an issue here, whereas his accuracy (second in the Corales) will set him up nicely.

Oppenheim was 24th here last year when not in anything like the same form, and he's preferred to Wesley Bryan; younger, classier, also hitting quality approaches, but just about short enough at 50/1. The same applies to Russell Knox, who holidayed in Bermuda during the 2016 Ryder Cup having felt aggrieved to miss out on the side. He has form which matches Todd's nicely and has shown flashes since a change in coach, while Martin Laird's victory in Las Vegas is sure to offer some kind of encouragement.

Again though, that forecasts discourages me from anything but the speculative, and I'll dive now to the most speculative of the lot - AARON BADDELEY and RHEIN GIBSON.

This Aussie duo are proven in the wind, particularly Baddeley thanks to his victory and runner-up finish at Harbour Town, second in the Sony Open, and the fact he always plays well in the Texas Open, which more often than not involves dealing with a breeze.

Baddeley has been eighth and second in two starts in Puerto Rico, which is sure to prove a decent guide to this, and in two starts in the Dominican Republic also has a share of seventh. Looking at those events Todd went on to play well in, Baddeley himself wasn't far behind in Mexico (27th), and while his RSM form doesn't look great, over his last two visits he's shot 65 in three of his six rounds.

It's that Texas form and his ability to step up when dropping down in grade which really appeals, and we saw it for his last victory in the Barracuda Championship four years ago. Now 39, he's not looked like taking his PGA Tour tally from four to five, but there have actually been some signs lately that he's a potential threat here at a big price.

That may seem a little absurd, given that he's missed five cuts in a row, but before that he was 23rd in the 3M Open and he's really not been far from making plenty of weekends. His scores this season read 72-68-72-71-71-71 and he was a shot shy in the Sanderson Farms, where his putter badly let him down.

Putter is the club Baddeley has built a career around, and he'll need it if he's to contend here. Who knows whether it will improve from Mississippi, or from the Wyndham and the Safeway, but he ranked sixth in the 3M Open and I don't think it's likely he's lost on the greens, having lit them up for two decades now.

If we get a return to what we know he's capable of on and around the greens, it's hugely encouraging to me that he's gained strokes with his approaches on each of his last four measured starts, and that his driver has been improving to the extent that he also gained strokes in that department in Jackson. Seldom does Baddeley do that yet here we have some tangible evidence that he's found some real consistency from tee-to-green.

Missing a couple of five-footers and one from half that distance was the difference between making the cut and missing it last time. Here, playing by the coast, when things could get really grim at times, his experience and residual class count for much more than they did there. So while he could of course exit on Friday, I am pretty confident he'll make the weekend and could therefore be some kind of factor in the right grade for him.

Gibson learned to play the game by the coast in New South Wales, before going to college in Oklahoma, where he won the state amateur, the Oklahoma Open, and of course shot that famous round of 55. His entire golfing education has involved battling the wind, and it's no wonder he thrives in it.

Last time out he was 21st in the Dominican Republic to go with 27th in Puerto Rico, while last November he opened with a brace of 64s to sit second at Sea Island. Back-to-back third-placed finishes in the Bahamas in 2018 further underline where he's at his best, and he was 17th through 54 holes here last year, eventually settling for 35th having driven it well and ranked ninth in ball-striking.

Windier conditions one year on will help, and just as was the case last November, he's started to play some nice golf. First there was a second-round 66 to make the cut at the Safeway, then he shot rounds of 69 and 67 in the Dominican Republic to finish 21st, before narrowly missing a spot in the Shriners after a six-under Monday.

Dig really deep into his form book and you'll find Gibson won a minor tour event in Virginia where he said the wind was 'like a tornado' throughout so again we have someone who is equipped to handle the likely conditions. That could count for a lot and having won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year he is probably capable of causing a shock in an event like this, where a Korn Ferry player is favourite.

KRAMER HICKOK is another who played really well in that Shriners qualifier, shooting seven-under to miss out by one. The Texan used that as a springboard to 15th place at the same course on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he both opened and closed with rounds of 65, and looks worth chancing.

Although yet to deliver on the promise he'd shown en route to the PGA Tour, Hickok has at least popped up in that cluster of events we so often look to for players in the Todd mould. He was 21st in the Dominican Republic just a month ago, and shot 69-69 across the weekend of the Honda Classic back in March to fill the same spot in a world-class field.

Go back to 2019 and he was 10th in the Dominican, 35th in Puerto Rico and 29th in the Mayakoba, and here in Bermuda he broke 70 every day to finish 15th. That came after he'd sailed through Korn Ferry Tour Finals and while yet to show it, he looks to have the talent to eventually establish himself at this higher level.

Lately he's been driving the ball straight and well - very much a staple of his game - despite reportedly experimenting with a longer driver in order to add distance. He has been scrambling well, too, ranking inside the top 20 in three of his last five starts, and those were the attributes which powered his performance here last November.

Hickok was born in Austin, Texas and lives in Dallas so playing in the wind is no issue and he's talented enough to make a breakthrough at three-figure prices.

Next on this fairly wild list is ANDREW PUTNAM, winner of a low-grade PGA Tour event back in 2018 before demonstrating how comfortable he is by the coast with second in Hawaii and fourth in Scotland.

Another short hitter who depends a lot on his short-game, Putnam cracked the world's top 50 a year or so ago, but his long-game fell off a cliff in February and he was no kind of factor throughout the rest of the season.

Five weeks off after the PGA Championship seemed to help, though, because he ranked 13th in strokes-gained approach in the Safeway Open, ending a miserable run with a respectable 36th. After then withdrawing from the US Open, he was 53rd in the Sanderson Farms, relying on his short-game, before his iron play was positive again when 58th in the Shriners.

These are nothing more than small steps in the right direction, but now down into this sort of company for the first time since winning in Nevada, a big step forward is possible. His last opposite-field start prior to that resulted in fifth place in the Dominican Republic, and while this is strictly speaking not a lower-grade event, the field says otherwise.

Putnam then has a touch of class and has shown a little more lately - Todd-like qualities, perhaps. He also has further island form having been eighth and 11th in the Bahamas in his last Korn Ferry Tour campaign, during which he won in Panama, a few kilometres from the ocean. His first performance of any real note on the PGA Tour was 12th place at Sea Island, and this is fundamentally a good course for a peak-form Putnam.

We don't have that, hence the price, but we do have the nappy factor to hang something on. Putnam welcomed his second child into the world just last week and the fact that he's still here in Bermuda must say something about his motivation, having fallen down the world rankings at pace. No doubt he feels he needs to get some tournament golf in before Augusta in a fortnight.

As for whether the nappy factor helped him the first time, well, it's possible. Just a few starts after baby number one was born he nearly won at Colonial, and his win the previous August came a week before he shared the good news with the world. In other words, just after he found out he was going to become a parent.

Laugh all you like, but he's 150/1 little more than a year on from form which few of these have ever managed, and he's definitely got his conditions. Those factors combined earn him a place in the line-up.

Plenty will want to side with Padraig Harrington after some good form in Scotland, especially now the forecast is what it is. Harrington has been able to focus on his own game now the Ryder Cup has been postponed, and with his last PGA Tour win coming in the Honda Classic, it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see him contending here.

Remember, last year Graeme McDowell put all his smarts to use to win in the Dominican Republic and Harrington is a prime candidate to emulate him having played in the old Grand Slam event here, winning it once. Equally interesting Henrik Stenson, winner of the Hero Challenge in the Bahamas late last year, 21st in the Dominican two starts back, and let down only by some awful putting at the Sanderson Farms.

On the one hand the forecast strengthens the case for both, but there's a limit to that. Breeze brings uncertainty when it gets to 25mph and the potential for a draw bias is another small reason to overlook these two former Open winners at 66/1 and 40/1 respectively.

To finish off then, I'll add SANG-MOON BAE and MARK ANDERSON.

Bae already shares something in common with Todd, as both won the Byron Nelson, in Texas, earlier in their careers. Again that's a tournament which typically requires a player to combat some kind of breeze and it's no bad thing that we can draw this comparison, however flimsy it may be.

More relevant is the fact that Bae has shown some flashes of form lately and while it's largely been on the Korn Ferry Tour, as touched upon this isn't a whole lot stronger. First he was third through 54 holes in the Savannah Golf Championship before a closing 73 saw him drop to 15th. Then, a week later, he shot 67-68-64 to lie 14th, only for another bad Sunday to undo so much good work.

Having signed off with a 66 in the Dominican, where he carded a second-round 68, that means eight of his last 12 rounds have been very good and even if we isolate his PGA Tour form, 35th in the Barracuda and 28th in the Dominican (to go with missed cuts in the 3M Open and Safeway) offer some kind of hope.

Bae also played well to a point here last year. Despite arriving on the back of five missed cuts and without a properly low round in nine months, he shot 69-67 to lie 16th and though again fading, it's evidence he took to the challenge well enough.

Clearly there are some issues carrying this promise through 72 holes but we may not even get that far, and I like the fact he's started to drive the ball well. A two-time PGA Tour winner who played in the Presidents Cup three years ago, Bae is another of my selections capable of emulating Dominican Republic winner Hudson Swafford in returning to form and reminding us of their capabilities.

Anderson is a different kettle of fish as he's yet to show he has what it takes, but like Oppenheim it's his recent play which catches the eye.

On three of his last five starts Anderson has been close enough to get competitive and that represents a return to some encouraging signs at the start of the season, such as 66-66 at Sea Island to start, a third-round 64 in tough conditions en route to 21st in the Sony, and 30th in a high-class Farmers.

All of these are coastal events, as is Puerto Rico where he was 27th, and he also has 13th at Harbour Town, 16th at El Camaleon, 10th in a previous edition of the Puerto Rico Open, and 28th in the Dominican Republic, as part of a back catalogue which suggests this is the right sort of test.

The fact that he's really hitting his irons well now is another source of encouragement and living as he does by the coast in South Carolina, he's another player I can see coping with the forecast breeze.

Posted at 1225 BST on 27/10/20

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