Ben Coley's US Open betting tips: Preview and best bets for the US Open at Los Angeles Country Club
Golf expert Ben Coley was in profit at last month's PGA. Don't miss his best bets for the US Open, including former champions Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm.
- Our golf expert bagged place profits with 275/1 Cam Davis at the US PGA, along with winners at 22/1 and 80/1 in May. Click here for details of all Ben's selections.
Golf betting tips: US Open
5pts win Jon Rahm at 11/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor, BoyleSports)
3pts e.w. Jordan Spieth at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1.5pts e.w. Rickie Fowler at 55/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Si Woo Kim at 80/1 (bet365, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sahith Theegala at 100/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Min Woo Lee at 125/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
Among the many missteps taken by the PGA Tour last week, casting a shadow over their Canadian Open was quite low on the list. But while the US Open does not belong to and is not run by them, undermining it in the way that they did, with an announcement whose urgency remains unexplained and whose aftermath will continue to rage, was another slap in the face for golf fans.
When we're not being lied to and having our love for the sport pushed to breaking point, we sometimes chat merrily about it. One of the topics that comes up is how would you rank the majors. Perhaps the better way to approach it is to do so annually, with the four interchanging according to the venues chosen by three of them or even the time of year the question comes up.
In 2023, many had been waiting for the US Open to arrive even during April's Masters and May's PGA. Los Angeles Country Club looks and is spectacular, and while the west coast brings with it late nights, it should all be worthwhile. Players' eyes have been lighting up for months when discussing what's to come, so perhaps that Jay Monahan character accidentally stumbled into the right timing after all. Fill your glass with this Hollywood tonic.
My ambition for the days leading up to the tournament is to embrace the spirit of the best piece of fallout writing I read, by Geoff Shackelford, who ended his article with the following statement: "Even better, we have more majors to enjoy over the coming months. They're at tremendous courses featuring players to root for and moments to cherish. And they'll remind us not everyone sees golf as a commodity available for sale to the highest and lowliest bidder."
Shackelford should know. Along with Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner, he played a key part in the restoration of LACC's North Course, bringing George C. Thomas Jr's vision back to life. As Hanse told it to The Fried Egg, the message to the well-heeled members was a simple one: if you don't want to restore George Thomas, we're not your guys. They made the right decision.
Thomas, though born in Pennsylvania, made California his home after serving in the First World War, and his influence is impossible to miss. For PGA Tour fans, or at least people who like watching elite golfers play in meaningful tournaments, Thomas's Riviera will be as familiar as just about any other course. Some of the players in this field will also be acquainted with Bel-Air, which hosted a round of stroke play in the 2018 US Amateur and will stage the US Women's Amateur Championship in August.
The North Course certainly shares some visual similarities with Riviera, and Max Homa's name is bound to be popular as dotted lines further connect the two. Homa, winner of the Genesis Invitational in 2021, holds the course record here at LACC with a round of 61. It's why he was supported during the winter and remains higher in the market than he has been for any of his 15 major starts to date, despite having returned to this course only once in the interim.
Back in February, when putting up a stout defence of his title at Riviera, Homa was one of several players asked to compare the two courses, captured in a feature by Adam Schupak. "LACC is a second-shot golf course similar to this so I would give it that, but the value on the tee shot out here is a lot higher than out there," said Homa, meaning accuracy matters more at Riviera, whose fairways are among the hardest to hit on the PGA Tour. Hitting fairways will be nowhere near the top of the list of challenges this week.
Perhaps a more telling comment is the one that followed. Homa, who stressed that the courses aren't especially alike except for geographically (although there are visual similarities), added: "Length is not nearly as big of a deal (at Riviera) as it is out there." Quite something given that it's definitely become more and more important at Riv down the years.
And that makes it a US Open venue which both conforms to the event's profile and offers something more subtle, and with greater variety, than the likes of Torrey Pines and Brookline. Power has of late become an unmistakable essential in this major. Extra yards off the tee were vital to Matt Fitzpatrick, who succeeded Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau and Gary Woodland and Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson. It's a long time since someone won without hitting the ball a mile off the tee, but with organisers prioritising the words 'firm and fast' there should be more balance here.
Power will still matter, but whereas distance in almost all of the above cases has so often made approach shots from thick rough easier, the equation here is different. In places, fairways at the North Course are 75 yards wide, averaging around 43, but they're steeply sloped and still present a challenge. Those missing them may find themselves hoping for the best in the barranca – Hanse says they want you to find your ball and face a problem rather than lose it – or hitting from bermuda rough, which is relatively short and sparse versus the typical USGA formula but inherently unpredictable and not seen in this tournament for almost two decades.
The course's defences may not include that kind of chop-out rough with which we've become familiar (thank goodness) but are nonetheless manifold. Its sheer size for a par 70 at 7,423 yards, two obscenely long par-threes, those fairway cambers, blind shots, the barranca and the unpredictability of lies all among them, but severe greens perhaps above all others. That was the view of Adam Scott and Matt Fitzpatrick back in the spring and with plenty of short grass and rugged bunkering surrounding them, missing in the wrong place could be extremely costly.
It marks a significant change from last month's PGA and last year's US Open, where heavy rough would often limit the damage just as short grass can multiply it. There is some thicker rough around some of these greens but there's balance and variety which at Oak Hill, just as at Torrey Pines and elsewhere, was lacking. It should make for a much more interesting spectacle, from the tee shot to the final putt, and I can't wait to see it.
Turning all of this into something resembling a formula is the task. My conclusion is that LACC is going to test all facets of a player's game and that its closing stretch will make this US Open especially hard to win. Length will likely be required yet again, even in the likelihood of firm conditions, followed by precision approach play and the confidence to hit daunting shots around the green or else the nerve to lag putts close from the wrong section.
As for where to look for form clues, it may be that Chambers Bay, Erin Hills and Shinnecock prove more valuable than fellow US Open venues Winged Foot, Torrey Pines and Brookline. It may also be that Augusta, with its wide fairways, the value it places on the recovery shot and the heightened emphasis on what a player does when they miss the green, is not the worst place to look. From there we can even cross the sea to St Andrews and a handful of other Open Championship venues.
Such a quest leads me to JORDAN SPIETH and this might be the best course for him in years.
Spieth's record on courses with wide fairways, where imagination and creativity are required, is exceptional. First he won at Augusta, then at Chambers Bay, later at Birkdale. He even left Erin Hills (T35) feeling he ought to have been in the mix given the way he struck the ball and for now his second-best US Open performance came at Pinehurst in 2014, where rough wasn't a factor.
Only at Bethpage, which staged the 2019 PGA Championship, has he really competed under what you might call standard USGA conditions even if they had nothing to do with that particular event. Spieth's best chances have come when his sometimes wayward driving isn't placed under great threat from the tee and when he can demonstrate that his approach play, recovery and short-game are all exceptional when on-song.
That short-game was actually the only reason he didn't hit the frame at the PGA Championship last month but he's nevertheless playing really well. Six top-six finishes in his last 11 tell us that, as does fifth place at the Memorial when quiet on the greens but excellent elsewhere, ranking fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green.
Perhaps most importantly of all, he described his wrist issue as under control when last speaking with reporters, adding that 'it's not a bother out on the golf course at all'. I'm not sure I'd have wanted to completely trust him on that were he heading to a Torrey Pines, but around here it seems he's fit enough to do himself justice.
Spieth's driver fired at Muirfield Village (fifth in strokes-gained off-the-tee) as it had at Oak Hill (sixth) and while not one of those players who sits in the upper echelon of long hitters, he's always been well above average, powerful enough to win anywhere. There's some evidence he's gaining length right now but whether true or not, he's been inside the top 50 in the key distance category for three seasons running.
These greens, which are bentgrass, might if anything be a positive given that he shows a small uptick over his career and has enjoyed so much success at Augusta, where he ranked 10th in putting back in April. Their contours certainly should be as he's a player who comes alive when every shot requires real thought which, with respect to the US Open, has not always been the case. Sometimes it's been all about executing.
As a rule, it's paid to concentrate on the Open and the Masters if backing Spieth in majors, notwithstanding his short-price win at Chambers Bay, but this is a US Open which might just call upon the same skills needed to capture golf's two most famous prizes. It gives Spieth a real opportunity to win another of them for the second time in his career.
Masters hero best of the big four
The front of the market has been even more competitive following Brooks Koepka's performances at Augusta and then Oak Hill, where he was right back to his best to capture a fifth major championship. Having been 40/1 in the run-up to the Masters he's now back where many think he belongs, but I won't be alone in feeling that the ship has rather sailed at 12/1 even if his CV demands the utmost respect.
Rory McIlroy has been looking forward to this but will be a first-time visitor who arrives having contended in Canada, which means he'll have to learn quickly. It's true that his recent US Open form reads 9-8-7-5 and that two of these came after winning the Canadian Open, but remember those renewals took place at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines.
He's been under a lot of stress lately and there are enough doubts to leave him alone, despite the high probability that he plays well. McIlroy has a 50% top-10 strike-rate in majors, a phenomenal record over more than a decade.
The cases for Scottie Scheffler and JON RAHM appear more robust and it's the latter who has both fewest questions to answer, together with what looks the more compelling overall profile and quite significantly bigger odds.
Scheffler is on his way to an all-time season in terms of long-game. He's clear at the top of the tee-to-green rankings and last time out almost won the Memorial Tournament despite losing more than two strokes each day with his putter. To be clear, if we apply a field-average putting display, he wins the tournament by seven.
His putting woes have many calling for an overhaul or a new club or really whatever it takes, but I would say he putted fine in the PGA Championship when second, as he had at the beginning of the season. In a way I like that he's sticking to what he knows, or has for the most part so far, as it displays his conviction that things will turn sooner rather than later.
If they do, everyone else is in trouble but somewhat lost among the aftermath of the Memorial is that Rahm endured a nightmare putting week of his own, and I suspect he's the more likely of the two to shrug that aside.
Rahm was disappointing in the PGA Championship prior to that, so soon after the classic post-major win projections which had him anointed as an all-timer and so on, but being brought back down to earth may be no bad thing and I wonder if he might now go on to join Koepka, Spieth and McIlroy in winning two majors in the same year.
Certainly, returning to California has to be seen to be a positive as he's won five of his 25 starts in the Golden State, with a US Open return of third and first. Again this is a small advantage over Scheffler, whose record is good but not nearly as good, while McIlroy's only victory out here to date came in the Match Play and Koepka is still looking for his first.
And while Rahm didn't play well at Erin Hills or Shinnecock, he does have some strong Open and general links form and of course landed the Masters this year, demonstrating how far his short-game had come in 12 months and ultimately, like so many before him, needing only to putt to a good standard to in the end win comfortably.
Yes, it looks like his form has dipped since, but in just four starts he's produced two exceptional displays with his approaches, plus a field-leading driving performance in Mexico, and I expect him to put it all together under conditions which will suit and at a course he has seen before, having featured in the same Pac-12 Conference event which saw Homa dominate.
Perhaps the only real worry is that Rahm hasn't already spoken to the media following last week's news and, with some speculation that he might've been contemplating a shock LIV Golf move, he's going to have to face that early in the week.
Nevertheless, McIlroy's display (for 54 holes at least) in Canada is a reminder that these are top professionals for a reason and it would seem a poor excuse for a two-time major champion, who won at Riviera back in February and can threaten to land the cross-town double.
Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland sit behind the big four in the betting and both arrive as likely candidates to be the next first-time major champion. Hovland's victory last time out capped a fabulous run since he played alongside McIlroy in the final group at the Open, during which time he's also contended for the Masters and the PGA, so victory for the Norwegian would make a lot of sense.
I won't be alone though in worrying about his short-game around here, so Cantlay would be preferred having demonstrated time and again how capable he is chipping and pitching from tight lies. He's halfway to the four top-20 finishes advised at 16/1 back in December and is on a sequence of four of those dating back to this event last year, so in his home state looks another likely contender at precisely the odds he ought to be.
California dreaming
Collin Morikawa's first major came at Harding Park in San Francisco and he's another who will hope for home advantage to play out here in LA, where he was born, but back spasms forced his withdrawal when in the mix at the Memorial and that's got to be a worry. The same goes for Hideki Matsuyama, who was also in contention there before a poor weekend and spoke about how much distance his neck injury has cost him.
As for Homa, in the end I found him surprisingly hard to leave out. Yes, it's the Captain Obvious bet, no, he hasn't contended for a major and isn't in quite the same form which saw him start the year so well. Despite this he's as short as he has ever been for a major championship, not far off the price at which he won at Torrey Pines in January.
The thing is, we have plenty of recent examples where some sort of comfort or familiarity seems to have played a part. Think Shane Lowry at Portrush, a course he'd played since childhood. Think Rahm at the aforementioned Torrey Pines, where he'd secured his breakthrough professional win. In this very event a year ago, Matthew Fitzpatrick returned to the scene of his US Amateur heroics and captured his first major.
With four wins in his last eight starts in his home state of California, and the fact that his approach play and short-game are both strengths, Homa wasn't far off making the staking plan. That being said, each of the above examples had contended at the very highest level and among the top 25 names in the betting, Homa is alone in never having done so to date. It's a definite negative.
So is the fact that RICKIE FOWLER hasn't managed to crown his comeback year with silverware as of yet and it's a tall order to do so in a US Open, but he's playing such good golf that I can't overlook him given how well his red-hot game could match up with this course.
Fowler, like Homa from California, has a back catalogue of potentially informative results: three top-six finishes in the Open, eighth at Kiawah Island, second at Pinehurst and fifth at Erin Hills among them. Significantly, the latter two are his standout performances in this particular major.
Nine strong performances from 10 Masters starts including second in 2018 tell us he's a real Augusta specialist and at his absolute best, there might be no better putter of bentgrass greens in this field. Certainly, Fowler is up towards the top of the list in that department and the last time he gained five-plus strokes with the putter came on similar ones.
The case though largely comes down to how well he's playing. Fowler's form in 2023 reads 54-11-10-20-31-13-17-10-15-14-MC-6-9, and we can add two pre-Christmas top-10s to what's been a superb season. Coach Butch Harmon said his man would win more than once this year and while not yet vindicated in the way that he'd hoped, it's been great to see Fowler showcasing all aspects of a wonderful game again.
Only when putting poorly at Oak Hill has he stumbled, even then missing the cut on the number, and he's put that behind him with his best two finishes of the year subsequently. Sixth at Colonial and ninth in the Memorial both saw Fowler rank inside the top 10 in strokes-gained tee-to-green and a hot putting week was the only thing missing.
He is now a hair shorter than for the PGA, but that's fine with me given his performances since and my belief that this course will be more to his liking. Winning does remain a tall order for a player once considered the best in the game without a major championship to his name, but he's playing like a top-15 golfer and can at the very least contend.
One of the few players I'm yet to mention is Xander Schauffele and he's hard to crab. Nobody has played the US Open better since Schauffele emerged with a top-10 finish at Erin Hills and he's since produced similar displays on all three major starts in California, which again is his home state.
Rewind to the penultimate major here, in 2020, and a Californian topped what felt like a pretty west coast leaderboard, and Schauffele is among the strongest candidates to emulate Morikawa. To finish 18th in the PGA Championship having been four-over through three holes tells you all you need to know and his patience, quality approach play and major CV all makes for another strong candidate.
All the reliability and poise which Schauffele boasts can hardly be ascribed to SI WOO KIM, but the enigmatic Korean is world-class at his best and there are enough indications to suggest he can produce it this week.
Kim is yet to manage a top-10 finish in a major but he's been in the mix during the weekend at Augusta, as well as this tournament at Erin Hills. Add in a top-15 finish at St Andrews last year, plus another at Harding Park in San Francisco, and all of his standout displays offer some kind of encouragement.
As far as his game goes, Kim is long enough for a US Open, he's a brilliant iron player, and few match his around the green stats down the years. Just like Tommy Fleetwood, what he does when he misses a green is an unheralded part of the Kim game and it's something which will be required at LACC.
41 feet apex 👀
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 4, 2023
Saucy stinger from Si Woo Kim @MemorialGolf. pic.twitter.com/cO0cLAh2bU
He has some strong California form to his name, winning twice albeit under very different conditions but also going close at Pebble Beach and Riviera, while he's a winner this season having captured the Sony Open back in January. That wasn't a big surprise, especially after a confidence-boosting display in defeat at the Presidents Cup.
It was around that time that Kim began using the broomhandle putter and results have undeniably been mixed, but that club is really the only issue from a technical perspective. It may well have cost him another victory last time out, but fourth place at the Memorial was nevertheless a fine way to prepare for this, especially with scoring so difficult.
Second in strokes-gained tee-to-green there and a lofty 14th for the season, this former winner of The PLAYERS has his game in excellent shape and remains with the ability to get amongst things at the highest level. It could just fall into place for him in Los Angeles.
I'll also chance SAHITH THEEGALA, who is high-class in all departments bar off the tee, where his waywardness can often cause problems.
That may not be so much of an issue here and the fact that he's made 19 cuts in succession in spite of it speaks to not just his talent, but an ability to grind which should serve him really well in major championships.
Already we've seen some evidence of that, as since securing PGA Tour membership he's finished 34th in the Open, ninth at Augusta where he was the pick of the debutants, and 40th at Oak Hill. The first of the three came at St Andrews where he was handily placed after two rounds, too.
With Augusta and the Old Course requiring real imagination and the ability to hit all kinds of shots around the green, perhaps it shouldn't surprise us that Theegala fared so well. He's a golfer you might describe as swashbuckling, with wonderful hands, and one who plays the game more as an art than a science.
Sahith Theegala chips in for birdie on No. 16 to move into a tie for third place. #themasters pic.twitter.com/NBtrLAW2BV
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 9, 2023
That might mean that he's less threatening under the bomb-and-gouge conditions of last month's PGA and more so around these old-fashioned, open courses where a player has to calculate what will happen as the ball hits the ground. To some degree that helps explain how he was able to win a big amateur title on the Melbourne Sandbelt back in 2020.
Three top-six finishes in four starts in his home state of California so far this season are also encouraging and while yes, he remains a PGA Tour maiden, he was watching from home when Cam Young, Mito Pereira, Matt Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris were the final four players teeing off in the final round of the PGA Championship last year.
Zalatoris might've won both that and the US Open a month later while Fitzpatrick of course did take the latter, before Young was runner-up in the Open afterwards. Increasingly, these young players don't tend to worry about old rules. Theegala made a name for himself in the cauldron of the Phoenix Open and can rise to the occasion once again.
Aussie to rule, but which one?
Back towards the front of the betting, if those lines through St Andrews, Augusta and places like Chambers Bay prove in any way accurate, then it's very difficult to get away from the chances of Cameron Smith, ninth in the USPGA last month.
The trouble is, Smith's US Open efforts since a top-five in 2015 amount to nothing and while firm and fast helps, the USGA's set-up is still likely to leave him fighting an uphill battle at a course this long on the scorecard. The rest of his game is good enough to win that battle, but I have enough reservations to look elsewhere.
Instead I'll chance Smith's compatriot MIN WOO LEE, who already has several strong major results to his name before his 25th birthday next month.
Lee was 14th on his Masters debut last April, 27th in the US Open and 21st in the Open, and while disappointing on his second visit to Augusta got back on the bike with 18th at Oak Hill last month.
Already then we've seen this special young talent flirt with contending at the very highest level and it's something I believe he'll do in time. Perhaps it's still too early, but the course, with certain Australian characteristics and demanding a quality short-game, compels me to try again now.
As well as being a fine, powerful driver of the ball and a good long-iron player, Min Woo is brilliant around the greens. Here's a player who needed to chip in to force a play-off in Abu Dhabi and almost did, and whose short-game was the best in the field in the PGA Championship.
Good luck bro @Minwoo27Lee 👍🏼 pic.twitter.com/B50A1vwJez
— Min Woo Lee (@Minwoo27Lee) June 11, 2023
The issue of late has been a downturn with his iron play but even that has now improved three starts running and with plenty of long-iron approaches to come, and the need for creativity with wedges, he might just find another big step forward.
A contender at Sawgrass back in March and having gone up against Rahm in Spain last year, Lee is destined for big things in the future but I'm more than happy taking big prices in the here and now.
For those scanning even further down the betting I thought Ryan Fox and Padraig Harrington might also enjoy conditions.
Fox has been playing well just about everywhere throughout the past 18 months, he's long, he has the required touch, he loves firm and fast golf, and he should again do himself justice. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that he emulates Michael Campbell and wins a third men's major for New Zealand.
Harrington placed in the 2021 PGA Championship when presented with an Open-like test and while this isn't Kiawah Island, I do think it'll be more to his liking than when 50th at Oak Hill last month, since which he's been runner-up in a seniors major.
Still wonderful around the green, long enough off the tee and putting well through most of spring and into summer, he's razor-sharp at the moment and I'm not sure he's done competing with the youngsters just yet. At 400/1, there are worse outsiders, but I'll try and find another way to side with the Irishman.
Posted at 1700 BST on 12/06/23
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